{"id":99586,"date":"2026-06-16T09:00:28","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T06:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/2026\/06\/16\/haziran-tufe-tahmini-aylik-yuzde-092-yillik-enflasyonda-sinirli-gerileme"},"modified":"2026-06-16T09:00:28","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T06:00:28","slug":"haziran-tufe-tahmini-aylik-yuzde-092-yillik-enflasyonda-sinirli-gerileme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/2026\/06\/16\/haziran-tufe-tahmini-aylik-yuzde-092-yillik-enflasyonda-sinirli-gerileme\/","title":{"rendered":"Haziran T\u00dcFE tahmini: Ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,92, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerileme"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pusula Yat\u0131r\u0131m, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 Haziran ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) i\u00e7in ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,92 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Kurumun tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 0,7 ile y\u00fczde 1,2 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n

Yap\u0131lan hesaplamaya g\u00f6re, Haziran ay\u0131nda T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u00fczde 0,92 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun y\u00fczde 32,61\u2019den y\u00fczde 32,16\u2019ya gerilemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Kurumun \u00fc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 endeks \u00fczerinden olu\u015fturdu\u011fu ARIMA modeline dayanan ortalama hesaplamada ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u00fczde 0,73 seviyesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geldi\u011fi belirtildi. Bu senaryoda y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun y\u00fczde 31,97 seviyesine kadar gerileyebilece\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n

Pusula Yat\u0131r\u0131m, s\u00f6z konusu hesaplamalarda 2003, 2020 ve 2025 bazl\u0131 endekslerin birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fini ve piyasa uyumunun art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 amac\u0131yla ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n tercih edildi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n

Raporda enflasyon sepetinde \u00f6zellikle g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler, ula\u015ft\u0131rma, konut ile lokanta ve konaklama<\/strong> <\/strong>gruplar\u0131n\u0131n belirleyici oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131. Baz\u0131 alt kalemlerde ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc katk\u0131lar\u0131n enflasyonu dengeleyebilece\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

De\u011ferlendirmede, Temmuz ay\u0131nda para politikas\u0131nda teknik ad\u0131mlar\u0131n (1 hafta vadeli repo ihalelerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f gibi) g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fi, ancak ek faiz indirimi beklenmedi\u011fi ifade edildi.Faiz indirim s\u00fcrecinin ise daha \u00e7ok Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 ve sonras\u0131nda belirginle\u015febilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Pusula Yat\u0131r\u0131m y\u0131l sonuna ili\u015fkin beklentilerinde T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u00fczde 26 seviyesine gerilemesini, politika faizinin ise y\u00fczde 33 d\u00fczeyinde olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Raporda ayr\u0131ca, enflasyon beklentilerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin olu\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in Haziran T\u00dcFE verisinin y\u00fczde 1,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde gelmesi gerekti\u011fi, mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n

<\/strong>
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130stanbul, 16 Haziran (Hibya)-Pusula Yat\u0131r\u0131m, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 Haziran ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) i\u00e7in ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,92 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Kurumun tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 0,7 ile y\u00fczde 1,2 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":99587,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-99586","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99586","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=99586"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99586\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/99587"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=99586"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=99586"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=99586"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}