Trive Yat\u0131r\u0131m’\u0131n analizine g\u00f6re, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta boyunca piyasalarda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan en \u00f6nemli risk unsuru, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki kapanman\u0131n uzamas\u0131 ve bunun petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden k\u00fcresel enflasyonu yeniden yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekme ihtimali oldu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Analizde, Tahran\u2019dan gelen teklifin bu riski tamamen ortadan kald\u0131rmasa da krizin daha uzun s\u00fcreli ve maliyetli bir enerji \u015fokuna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme ihtimalini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret edildi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131n sonland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yeniden sa\u011flanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve dar kapsaml\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00f6nermesinin, piyasalarda ton de\u011fi\u015fimine neden oldu\u011fu belirtildi. \u00d6zellikle n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakerelerin sonraki a\u015famaya b\u0131rak\u0131labilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik sinyallerin, taraflar\u0131n \u00f6ncelikle enerji arz\u0131n\u0131 normalle\u015ftirmeye odaklanabilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, piyasalarda tam bir normalle\u015fme fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n hen\u00fcz olu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurguland\u0131. ABD\u2019nin s\u00f6z konusu teklife nas\u0131l yan\u0131t verece\u011finin belirsizli\u011fini korudu\u011fu, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel riskleri azalt\u0131rken ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki pazarl\u0131k g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirildi. Bu nedenle piyasalarda ana teman\u0131n, enerji krizinin gev\u015feme ihtimali ile jeopolitik m\u00fczakerelerin devam\u0131 aras\u0131nda kurulacak denge oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
ABD vadeli endekslerinin haftaya pozitif bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekilen analizde, S&P 500 vadeli endeksinin 7.191 seviyesinde yatay seyretti\u011fi, Nasdaq 100 vadeli endeksinin 27.467 seviyesinde pozitif b\u00f6lgede yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131, Dow Jones vadeli endeksinin ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 negatif ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Emtia piyasalar\u0131nda ise alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.711 dolar seviyesinde hafif y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ise diplomatik geli\u015fmelere ra\u011fmen temkinli bir duru\u015f sergiledi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Brent petrol\u00fcn 101 dolar, ham petrol\u00fcn ise 94,25 dolar seviyelerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve arz risklerine y\u00f6nelik temkinli fiyatlaman\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015felerini k\u0131smen s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na de\u011finilen de\u011ferlendirmede, sanayi \u015firketlerinin k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n Mart ay\u0131nda son alt\u0131 ay\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti\u011fi ve \u00f6zellikle y\u00fcksek teknoloji \u00fcretiminde dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi. Bununla birlikte, k\u00fcresel fiyatlamalarda ana belirleyici unsurun jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler olmaya devam etti\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye taraf\u0131nda ise imalat\u00e7\u0131 ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar i\u00e7in kurumlar vergisinin y\u00fczde 9\u2019a, genel ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 14\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin, d\u0131\u015f pazarlara \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u015firketler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 destekleyebilecek \u00f6nemli bir ad\u0131m oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirildi. Bu d\u00fczenlemenin k\u0131sa vadede geni\u015f piyasa \u00fczerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etkisi olabilece\u011fi, ancak ihracat odakl\u0131 \u015firketler i\u00e7in orta vadede pozitif bir unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
De\u011ferlendirmede, vergi indirimi d\u00fczenlemesinin piyasa genelinden ziyade hisse bazl\u0131 se\u00e7ici fiyatlamalara yol a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131n daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtildi. D\u00fczenlemenin etkisinin \u015firketlerin ihracat oran\u0131, imalat yap\u0131s\u0131, vergi \u00f6ncesi karl\u0131l\u0131k kapasitesi ve mevcut finansal performans\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fi vurgulan\u0131rken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel ayr\u0131m\u0131n bu avantajdan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde faydalanabilecek \u015firketlerle etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacak \u015firketler aras\u0131nda yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Analizde, yeni haftan\u0131n en kritik g\u00fcndem ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131ndan birinin merkez bankalar\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekildi. \u0130ran\u2019dan gelen bar\u0131\u015f teklifi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin geli\u015fmelerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB), \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) kararlar\u0131n\u0131n piyasalar \u00fczerinde belirleyici olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Genel beklentinin faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n sabit tutulmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011fu, ancak piyasa a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan as\u0131l \u00f6nemli unsurun karar metinleri ve merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131n verece\u011fi mesajlar oldu\u011fu kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
De\u011ferlendirmede, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011fu bir ortamda merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bir gev\u015feme sinyali vermesinin zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir senaryoda, para politikas\u0131 yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon riskini geri plana atmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedi\u011fi, bu nedenle piyasan\u0131n faiz kararlar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d tonunun ne kadar sertle\u015fece\u011fine odaklanaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Ayr\u0131ca enerji \u015fokunun politika ileti\u015fimine ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerin yak\u0131ndan izlenece\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Genel \u00e7er\u00e7evede, piyasalar\u0131n 27 Nisan haftas\u0131na H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizinde ilk kez daha belirgin bir diplomatik gev\u015feme ihtimaliyle ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bar\u0131\u015f ve bo\u011faz\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik teklifinin risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilece\u011fi, ancak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etmesinin arz risklerinin tamamen ortadan kalkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019den gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sanayi karlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015felerini k\u0131smen s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edilen analizde, T\u00fcrkiye taraf\u0131nda ihracat\u00e7\u0131 \u015firketlere y\u00f6nelik vergi indiriminin hisse bazl\u0131 pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fmalara zemin haz\u0131rlayabilece\u011fi belirtildi. Haftan\u0131n ana belirleyicisinin ise merkez bankalar\u0131ndan gelecek mesajlar olaca\u011f\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca jeopolitik geli\u015fmeleri de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda para politikas\u0131n\u0131n bu yeni dengede ne kadar temkinli kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da fiyatlayaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
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<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 27 Nisan (Hibya) – Trive Yat\u0131r\u0131m taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan de\u011ferlendirmeye g\u00f6re, k\u00fcresel piyasalar yeni haftaya \u0130ran\u2019dan gelen bar\u0131\u015f ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7ma teklifinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha yumu\u015fak risk alg\u0131s\u0131yla ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":76499,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-76498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-ekonomi","category-manset"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76498"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76498\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76499"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"