A1 Capital’in raporunda, Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla ilgili devam eden belirsizlik ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkisiyle finans piyasalar\u0131nin yeniden sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131na girdi\u011fi belirtildi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, orta vadede enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden canlanmas\u0131ndan ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 daha da y\u00fckseltmesinden endi\u015fe etti\u011fi vurgulan\u0131rken \u015fu bilgiler verildi:<\/p>\n
“K\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi ve g\u00f6rev onay oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle birlikte, Trump, \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 bir ayl\u0131k sava\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan keskin se\u00e7imlerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya: potansiyel olarak kusurlu bir anla\u015fma imzalay\u0131p \u00e7ekilmek ya da askeri olarak t\u0131rmand\u0131rma yaparak ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketebilecek uzun s\u00fcreli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskini g\u00f6ze almak.<\/p>\n
Trump’\u0131n \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik diplomatik giri\u015fimleri, Pakistan ile gizli bir kanal \u00fczerinden g\u00f6nderilen 15 maddelik bar\u0131\u015f \u00f6nerisi de dahil olmak \u00fczere, bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolu aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n giderek daha acil hale geldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor gibiydi. Ancak verimli m\u00fczakereler i\u00e7in \u015fu anda ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir beklenti olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizli\u011fini koruyor.<\/p>\n
Bu sabah Trump, Pakistan’\u0131n \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sona erdirmeyi ama\u00e7layan “anlaml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere” \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde ev sahipli\u011fi yapmaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan, \u0130ran’\u0131n mevcut liderlerini “\u00e7ok makul” olarak nitelendirdi. Trump, \u00fclkenin dini lideri ve di\u011fer \u00fcst d\u00fczey yetkililerinin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD’nin Tahran’da rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini zaten ba\u015fard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi, ancak yerlerine getirilen ki\u015filerin “makul” g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc iki kez tekrarlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kontrol\u00fc son derece tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 olmaya devam ederken, \u0130ran’\u0131n balistik ve n\u00fckleer programlar\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131yor. Ger\u00e7ek bir ilerleme olmamas\u0131 durumunda, belirsizlik mevcut piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 k\u00f6r\u00fcklemeye devam ediyor; hisse senetlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015flem hacimleri ise yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bekle g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, y\u0131ll\u0131k kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 sildikten sonra istikrar kazanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, Frans\u0131z ve Alman tahvillerinin getirileri 2023 zirvelerini a\u015farak bu h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin manevra alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Sorunlar daha yeni ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u0130ran enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir askeri sald\u0131r\u0131 i\u00e7in son tarihi erteledi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131, on g\u00fcnl\u00fck ek bir s\u00fcre tan\u0131d\u0131 ve 6 Nisan i\u00e7in yeni bir \u00fcltimatom verdi. Ancak bu karar, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi frenlemekte pek etkili olmuyor. Brent petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, WTI 97 dolara yak\u0131n seyrediyor. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana Brent petrol\u00fc y\u00fczde 50 artt\u0131. Fiyatlar, diplomatik \u00e7\u0131kmaz g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda muhtemelen devam edecek \u00f6nemli bir risk primi i\u00e7eriyor: ABD, \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan reddedilen 15 maddelik bir bar\u0131\u015f plan\u0131 \u00f6nerdi ve \u0130ran kendi \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 (g\u00fcvenlik garantileri ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki otoritesinin tan\u0131nmas\u0131) dayat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Askeri t\u0131rmanma riski y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor. Kan\u0131t olarak, Washington \u015fu anda Orta Do\u011fu’ya binlerce ek asker konu\u015fland\u0131r\u0131yor. Trump ayr\u0131ca, \u00f6nemli bir \u0130ran petrol terminali olan Harg Adas\u0131’n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc ele ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in kara kuvvetleri kullanmay\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Zaten Trump, Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Financial Times’da yay\u0131nlanan bir r\u00f6portajda, “\u0130ran’daki petrol\u00fc ele ge\u00e7irmek” istedi\u011fini ve ihracat merkezi olan Harg Adas\u0131’n\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Harg’\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc ele ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in kara birliklerine ihtiya\u00e7 duyulacakt\u0131r. Ada, \u0130ran’\u0131n petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 90’\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor ve adaya el konulmas\u0131, Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri’ne \u0130ran’\u0131n enerji ticaretini ciddi \u015fekilde sekteye u\u011fratma ve Tahran ekonomisi \u00fczerinde muazzam bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturma olana\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Amerikal\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu sava\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 ve uzun s\u00fcreli bir krize yol a\u00e7abilecek askeri bir t\u0131rmanma, Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki ara se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesinde Trump’\u0131n zaten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan onay oranlar\u0131n\u0131 daha da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n
Bo\u011fazdaki s\u0131k\u0131 kontroller, petrol, do\u011falgaz, g\u00fcbre, plastik ve al\u00fcminyum fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra u\u00e7ak ve gemi yak\u0131t\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131nda da art\u0131\u015fa neden oldu. G\u0131da, ila\u00e7 ve petrokimya \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n da artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu, Asya i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fc bir haber \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc b\u00f6lgenin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu’dan gelen enerjiye b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131. Bo\u011faz\u0131n bir ay daha kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 senaryosu, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 150 dolara do\u011fru y\u00fckselmesi ve enerji arz\u0131nda end\u00fcstriyel t\u00fcketicilerin k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131yla tutarl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Japonya’n\u0131n Nikkei endeksi Mart ay\u0131ndaki kay\u0131plar y\u00fczde 3,4 daha artarak yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 13’e ula\u015ft\u0131. G\u00fcney Kore Kospi sabah y\u00fczde 3,0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterirken, \u00c7in’in CSI200 y\u00fczde 0,2 oran\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetti. MSCI’\u0131n Japonya d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki en geni\u015f Asya-Pasifik hisse senedi endeksi y\u00fczde 1,3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri ve Nasdaq vadeli i\u015flemleri, erken saatlerdeki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smen telafi ederek daha kolay bir seyir izledi. Avrupa’da ise Euro Stoxx 50 vadeli i\u015flemleri ve DAX vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u00fczde 0,7 d\u00fc\u015ferken, FTSE vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u00fczde 0,4 geriledi.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimlere ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Ons fiyat\u0131 4.500 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, piyasalar FED’in yak\u0131n zamanda faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyece\u011fine inan\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131, getiri sa\u011flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in alt\u0131n\u0131 daha az \u00e7ekici hale getiriyor. Spot alt\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.488 dolara gerileyerek y\u00fczde 0,1’lik hafif bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131; Nisan teslimatl\u0131 ABD alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri de y\u00fczde 0,1 kay\u0131pla 4.518 dolara indi.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir trend, ay ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 7 d\u00fc\u015fen bak\u0131rda da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, pahal\u0131 enerji ve y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yava\u015flataca\u011f\u0131ndan ve end\u00fcstriyel metallere olan talebi azaltaca\u011f\u0131ndan endi\u015fe ediyor. Bak\u0131r, Londra’da ton ba\u015f\u0131na 12.174 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Spot g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f y\u00fczde 0,5 art\u0131\u015fla ons ba\u015f\u0131na 69,91 dolara y\u00fckseldi. Spot platin y\u00fczde 2,7 art\u0131\u015fla 1.911 dolara, paladyum ise y\u00fczde 2,9 art\u0131\u015fla 1.416 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
New York Borsas\u0131’nda be\u015finci hafta \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131; bu durum May\u0131s 2022’den bu yana bir ilk oldu. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar uzun zamand\u0131r olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar petrol fiyatlar\u0131na odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ham petrolde anlaml\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme olmazsa, hisse senetleri \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n hafiflemesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. S\u00fcrecin ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fi ise belirsizli\u011fini koruyor.<\/p>\n
Bu sabah Asya borsalar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ayl\u0131k rekor art\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fi, enflasyonda s\u0131\u00e7ramaya ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde resesyon riskine yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzun bir d\u00f6neme haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Japonya’n\u0131n Nikkei endeksi y\u00fczde 4,7 oran\u0131nda geriledi.<\/p>\n
Bu arada, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu ve Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn ayl\u0131k rekor art\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 4,2 art\u0131\u015fla kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 2,74 artarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115,66 dolara y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta, Avrupa’daki Mart ay\u0131 \u00f6n enflasyon rakamlar\u0131 Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n faiz politikas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 alevlendirecek. Artan benzin ve dizel fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyonu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekecek. Ancak \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkisinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 aylar s\u00fcrebilir. ABD ayl\u0131k istihdam verileri de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Ocak ay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyd\u00fc, \u015eubat ay\u0131 zay\u0131ft\u0131; grevler ve hava ko\u015fullar\u0131 tabloyu bulan\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Mart ay\u0131, ger\u00e7ek durumun nerede yatt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair bir ipucu verecek. Yurti\u00e7inde ise enflasyon verisi takip edilecek. Jeopolitik \u015foklar\u0131n enerji piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurularak, yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle Mart ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE’sinin y\u00fczde 2,9 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.”<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 30 Mart (Hibya) – A1 Capital, Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla ilgili devam eden belirsizlik ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkisiyle finans piyasalar\u0131nin yeniden sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131na girdi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":68281,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68280","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-ekonomi","category-manset"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68280","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68280"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68280\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/68281"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68280"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68280"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68280"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"