A1 Capital’in raporunda, T\u00fcrkiye’nin liray\u0131 savunmak i\u00e7in 135 milyar dolarl\u0131k alt\u0131n rezervlerini kullanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi\u00a0haberi \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan herkesin bi sars\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Haber de; TCMB Londra piyasas\u0131nda alt\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6viz takas\u0131 i\u015flemleri yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren se\u00e7enekler \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, rezervlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 milyar dolarl\u0131k k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda tutuldu\u011fu ve d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilecek durumda bulundu\u011funa de\u011finilirken \u015fu bilgiler verildi:<\/p>\n
“Merkez Bankas\u0131 liray\u0131 enflasyonun alt\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetmeyecek \u015fekilde y\u00f6netmeye dayal\u0131 politika izliyor ve bu politika sava\u015f sonras\u0131 daha maliyetli hale gelmi\u015f, yetkililer likiditeyi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak lira fonlama maliyetlerini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f ve kamu bankalar\u0131 d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etmi\u015f, T\u00fcrkiye son haftalarda yakla\u015f\u0131k 16 milyar dolarl\u0131k ABD tahvili ve di\u011fer yabanc\u0131 para cinsi varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 satm\u0131\u015f, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar T\u00fcrk devlet tahvillerinden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131 ve sat\u0131\u015flar Mart ortas\u0131nda rekor seviyeye ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f, Kapal\u0131\u00e7ar\u015f\u0131\u2019da d\u00f6viz talebinin artmas\u0131yla dolar kuru bankalararas\u0131 piyasaya g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek seviyeden i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyormu\u015f, piyasalarda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7lendi ve politika faizine y\u00f6nelik 100 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f fiyatlanmaya ba\u015flanm\u0131\u015f.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u0130lgin\u00e7 FT\u2019deki haberde de; T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin rezervlerindeki erime, para birimini desteklemek i\u00e7in alt\u0131n sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u00f6viz rezervlerinde ya\u015fanan h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, kur politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fini tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 hale getirdi. Son \u00fc\u00e7 haftada ya\u015fanan sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nedeniyle T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 milyar dolar d\u00f6viz satarak T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. T\u00fcrkiye, enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011fi i\u00e7in \u0130ran ile ya\u015fanan sava\u015f\u0131n ekonomik etkilerine a\u00e7\u0131k durumda, Brent petrol fiyat\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana varil ba\u015f\u0131na 30 dolardan fazla artarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 102 dolar seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. T\u00fcrkiye, enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011fi i\u00e7in \u0130ran ile ya\u015fanan sava\u015f\u0131n ekonomik etkilerine a\u00e7\u0131k durumda. Ekonomide olas\u0131 bir zay\u0131flama ve \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7 dalgas\u0131 ihtimali, siyasi dengeler \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Uzayan sava\u015f ve y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor deniyordu.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u015eimdi \u00f6ncelikle yanl\u0131\u015f anla\u015f\u0131lan ya da yanl\u0131\u015f anlat\u0131lan k\u0131s\u0131mdan ba\u015flayal\u0131m. Haberde TCMB alt\u0131n sat\u0131yor diye bir \u015fey de yok. Ne diyor haber: \u201cTCMB Londra piyasas\u0131nda alt\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6viz takas\u0131 i\u015flemleri yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren se\u00e7enekler \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yormu\u015f\u201d. Haber yetkililer taraf\u0131ndan do\u011frulanmad\u0131 ama biz anlat\u0131m\u0131 do\u011fruland\u0131 yapal\u0131m. TCMB’nin alt\u0131n rezervi y\u00fcksek ancak likit d\u00f6viz taraf\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Londra’da alt\u0131n\/d\u00f6viz swap i\u015flemiyle alt\u0131n\u0131 teminat g\u00f6sterip kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda d\u00f6viz alacak. Elde edilen d\u00f6viz likiditesi ile kur ve enerji ithalat\u0131 \u00f6demelerinde elini rahatlatacak. Yani alt\u0131n do\u011frudan sat\u0131lm\u0131yor, swap yoluyla ge\u00e7ici olarak d\u00f6vize \u00e7evriliyor. B\u00f6ylece rezerv yap\u0131s\u0131 korunurken m\u00fcdahale kapasitesi art\u0131yor. Bu, rezervleri \u201ceritmek\u201d yerine \u201ckullan\u0131labilir hale getirmek\u201d demek. Yani TCMB burada \u201cak\u0131ll\u0131 rezerv y\u00f6netimi\u201d yap\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/p>\n
D\u00f6nelim ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131za; EE zaten fonlama politika faizinin 300 baz puan \u00fczerinden yap\u0131l\u0131yordu madem ki 10y tahvil ayba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana y\u00fczde 19,71 art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 43,30 seviyesine ve g\u00f6sterge tahvilde y\u00fczde 19,71 art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 43,30 seviyesine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131, yabanc\u0131lar D\u0130BS\u2019te 4 haftada 5 milyar 805 milyon dolarl\u0131k satm\u0131\u015f ve bu y\u0131l nette neredeyse \u201c0\u201d seviyesine gelmi\u015flerdi (4 milyar 600 milyon dolar\u0131 son iki haftada) o zaman TCMB de 300 baz puan art\u0131rabilir, ee tabii bu arada kurda biraz serbest b\u0131rak\u0131labilirmi\u015f denmeye ba\u015flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bizce horozlar\u0131n \u00f6tmesi i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz erken. ABD kara harekat\u0131 da ba\u015flatacak beklentiniz varsa o ba\u015fka bu durumda da TCMB\u2019nin toplant\u0131 tarihini beklemesine gerek yok. Koridorun \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 daha yukar\u0131 \u00e7eker ard\u0131ndan politika faizini.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Bir sorumuz daha var bu arada petrol 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeyken +100 baz puan beklentisi, petrol 100\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f Trump bar\u0131\u015f aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu ima ederken neden +300\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131? Bunu tahvilleri g\u00f6rmemekle ili\u015fkilendirmeyelim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc tahvil \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 da \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lamay\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 da piyasan\u0131n i\u00e7indekiler g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. TCMB\u2019nin haftal\u0131k verilerini g\u00f6r\u00fcp hareket etmemize gerek yok.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Biraz da alt\u0131n ve emtialar. Sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte emtialardan uzak durup mevduat ve stopajs\u0131z bono\/tahvil pe\u015fine d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Alt\u0131n\u0131n bu sava\u015f s\u0131ras\u0131nda neden g\u00fcven liman olamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilk g\u00fcnden itibaren s\u00fcrekli yazd\u0131k ki, bu krizde geleneksel g\u00fcvenli limanlar aras\u0131nda en k\u00f6t\u00fc performans\u0131 g\u00f6stermekle kalmam\u0131\u015f, ayn\u0131 zamanda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc performans g\u00f6steren varl\u0131klar\u0131ndan biri olmu\u015ftur. Ama teknik olarak da ons alt\u0131n i\u00e7in al\u0131m aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade de etmi\u015ftik.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u0130ran’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 veya finansal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak takip etmek kolay de\u011fil. Ancak 28 \u015eubat’taki ilk sald\u0131r\u0131lardan bu yana iki \u015fey a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortada: enerji fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckseldi ve ne tahviller ne de alt\u0131n g\u00fcvenli bir liman sunmad\u0131. Hem petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131 hem de bunu dengelemek i\u00e7in merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahinvari s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma politikalar\u0131 beklentisi, tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden alt\u00fcst etti ve y\u00fckselen baz faiz oranlar\u0131 ve enflasyon beklentilerini telafi etmek i\u00e7in getirileri yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Belki de en \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 soru, devlet tahvillerinin sava\u015flar s\u0131ras\u0131nda neden g\u00fcvenli bir tampon olarak kabul edildi\u011fidir. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta Ekonomik Politika Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi’nin VoxEU sitesinde yay\u0131nlanan bir makale, 300 y\u0131ll\u0131k h\u00fck\u00fcmet harcamas\u0131 \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 analiz etti. Makale, \u201cSava\u015flar her zaman tahvil sahipleri i\u00e7in felaket zamanlar\u0131d\u0131r\u201d sonucuna vard\u0131. Tahvil sahipleri, krizin ilk d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131nda ortalama y\u00fczde 14 oran\u0131nda reel kay\u0131p ya\u015fad\u0131 ve k\u00fcm\u00fclatif getiriler hisse senetleri veya gayrimenkulden yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, tahviller durgunluk ve finansal kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermi\u015f. Makalede, \u201cDevlet tahvilleri, finansal krizler ve durgunluklar da dahil olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok ekonomik gerileme t\u00fcr\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta g\u00f6revi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor\u201d denilerek, h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin vergi m\u00fckelleflerine b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131plar ile s\u00fcregelen risk aras\u0131nda se\u00e7im yapmak zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Asya ve Orta Do\u011fu’daki bir\u00e7ok merkez bankas\u0131, artan ithalat faturalar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmek, para birimlerinin \u00e7ok fazla de\u011fer kaybetmesini \u00f6nlemek ve yakla\u015fan enflasyon \u015fokunu hafifletmek i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz rezervlerini ve fazla dolar tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya y\u00f6nelebilir. Bu durum dolar\u0131n de\u011ferini s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak ve potansiyel olarak ABD Hazine tahvilleri \u00fczerinde daha da a\u011f\u0131r bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r. Bunun zaten ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine dair i\u015faretler de var; New York Fed’in k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131 ad\u0131na tuttu\u011fu Hazine tahvillerinin miktar\u0131 son d\u00f6rt haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k 75 milyar dolar azalm\u0131\u015f. Analistler bunun yabanc\u0131 resmi sekt\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 milyar dolarl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini, bunun COVID-19 pandemisinden bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck net sat\u0131\u015f ve kay\u0131tlardaki ikinci en b\u00fcy\u00fck sat\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu tahmin ediyor. Hazine tahvilleri piyasas\u0131 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en likit piyasas\u0131 olabilir, ancak art\u0131k otomatik olarak en g\u00fcvenli yer olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/p>\n
D\u00f6nelim bu sabaha; ABD’nin \u0130ran’la sava\u015f\u0131nda bir ayl\u0131k ate\u015fkes aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011fu ve \u0130ran’a g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmek \u00fczere 15 maddelik bir plan g\u00f6nderdi\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki haberler \u00fczerine hisse senetleri y\u00fckselirken petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu durum, Basra K\u00f6rfezi’nden petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 umutlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Asya piyasalar\u0131nda sabah saatlerinde S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u00fczde 0,9 y\u00fckselirken, Avrupa vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u00fczde 1,2 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi ve Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 98,30 dolara geriledi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, ABD’nin \u0130ran’la sava\u015fa son vermek i\u00e7in y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc m\u00fczakerelerde ilerleme kaydetti\u011fini ve Tahran’dan \u00f6nemli bir taviz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bir kaynak ise Washington’\u0131n \u0130ran’a 15 maddelik bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00f6nerisi g\u00f6nderdi\u011fini do\u011frulad\u0131.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve ABD’nin Orta Do\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sona erdirme plan\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlerin ortas\u0131nda, y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve k\u00fcresel faiz oranlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri hafifletti. Alt\u0131n, dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetmesiyle y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Spot alt\u0131n y\u00fczde 2,2 art\u0131\u015fla ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.570 dolara y\u00fckseldi. Nisan teslimatl\u0131 ABD alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri ise y\u00fczde 3,8 art\u0131\u015fla 4.569 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Spot g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f y\u00fczde 3,1 art\u0131\u015fla ons ba\u015f\u0131na 73,42 dolara, spot platin y\u00fczde 1,8 art\u0131\u015fla 1.969 dolara, paladyum ise y\u00fczde 1,2 art\u0131\u015fla 1.457 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.\u00a0<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede alt\u0131n, FED’in politika yolu beklentilerine, ABD dolar\u0131na ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmelere kar\u015f\u0131 hassas kalmaya devam edecek, ancak toparlanma, reel getiriler anlaml\u0131 derecede y\u00fckselmedik\u00e7e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin destek bulmaya devam edebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve Orta Do\u011fu’daki \u00f6nemli \u00fcretim b\u00f6lgesinden kaynaklanan arz aksamalar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecek olas\u0131 bir ate\u015fkes beklentisiyle enflasyon endi\u015feleri hafifledi. CME Group’un FedWatch raporuna g\u00f6re, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerini Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fczde 25’ten yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 16’ya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.”<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 25 Mart (Hibya) – A1 Capital, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 geli\u015fmeler petrol, faiz ve kur beklentilerini etkilemeye devam etti\u011fini duyurdu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":65859,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-65858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-ekonomi","category-manset"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65858","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65858"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65858\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65859"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65858"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65858"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65858"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"