Gedik Yat\u0131e\u0131m’\u0131n analizine g\u00f6re, petrol ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki belirsizlik nedeniyle tahminlerin temkinli de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n analizine g\u00f6re piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l sonu t\u00fcketici enflasyonu (T\u00dcFE) beklentisi y\u00fckseldi. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 23,25, ge\u00e7en ay ise y\u00fczde 24,11 seviyesinde olan y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisi Mart anketinde y\u00fczde 25,38\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca 12 ay sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 22,10\u2019dan y\u00fczde 22,17\u2019ye, 24 ay sonras\u0131 beklenti ise y\u00fczde 17,11\u2019den y\u00fczde 17,30\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Mart ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE beklentisi de y\u00fczde 1,89\u2019dan y\u00fczde 2,18 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kurum, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 80 dolar civar\u0131nda dengelenip y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde 70 dolar seviyelerine gerilemesi durumunda enflasyon tahminlerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 puanla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fini ifade etti. Ancak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre 90\u2013100 dolar band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde enflasyon tahminlerinde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f gerekebilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Politika faizi beklentilerinde de y\u00fckseli\u015f dikkat \u00e7ekti. Ankete g\u00f6re piyasan\u0131n 22 Nisan\u2019da yap\u0131lacak Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in politika faizi beklentisi y\u00fczde 35\u2019ten y\u00fczde 36,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen piyasan\u0131n bir sonraki toplant\u0131da yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi beklentisini korudu\u011fu ifade edildi. Y\u0131l sonu politika faizi beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 29\u2019dan y\u00fczde 30,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, enflasyon tahmininde yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f varsay\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda y\u0131l sonu politika faizi beklentisini y\u00fczde 32\u201333 band\u0131na y\u00fckseltebilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Cari denge taraf\u0131nda da beklentilerin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ankete g\u00f6re 2026 y\u0131l sonu cari a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisi 26,3 milyar dolardan 31,6 milyar dolara, 2027 y\u0131l\u0131 tahmini ise 29,9 milyar dolardan 32,3 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, bu tahminlerin TCMB\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 metodolojik revizyonu hen\u00fcz i\u00e7ermedi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti. S\u00f6z konusu revizyonun 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 4,8 milyar dolar, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise 2,6 milyar dolar tutar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltme yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Kurum ayr\u0131ca, son d\u00f6nemde net hizmet gelirleri ve bavul ticareti gelirlerinde de zay\u0131flama g\u00f6zlendi\u011fini ifade etti. Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019a g\u00f6re metodolojik de\u011fi\u015fiklik ve hizmet gelirlerindeki zay\u0131flama birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde cari a\u00e7\u0131k tahmininde 8\u201310 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon gerekebilir. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da etkisiyle y\u0131l sonunda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 50 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kma ihtimalinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 13 Mart (Hibya) – Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) Mart ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirerek petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanan y\u00fckseli\u015fin piyasa beklentilerine yans\u0131maya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":61127,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-61126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61126","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61126"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61126\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61127"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61126"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61126"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61126"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"