A1 Capital'in raporunda “TU\u0130K\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilere g\u00f6re T\u00dcFE 2025 Ekim ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 2,55 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterince Y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 33,3\u2019den Ekim ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 32,9\u2019a gerilemi\u015f oldu.” ifadeleri kullan\u0131ld\u0131.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Raporun devam\u0131nda ise \u015funlar aktar\u0131ld\u0131:<\/p>\n
“Ekim ay\u0131 verisi ile birlikte y\u0131ll\u0131k veride tekrar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ekim ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda giyim grubu (y\u00fczde +12,4) en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren, e\u011fitim (y\u00fczde +0,08) ile en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren grup, Katk\u0131 olarak bakarsak ise g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler %0,83 ile ayl\u0131k enflasyona en y\u00fcksek etkide bulunan kalem oldu.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fet veri piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, TCMB Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketinde yer alan ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,34
\nbeklentisinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Di\u011fer taraftan; son enflasyon raporuna g\u00f6re y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana enflasyon,
\nTCMB\u2019nin 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u00fczde 25-29 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 28,6'ya ula\u015ft\u0131. G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 34,9\u2019a gerilemi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesine kar\u015f\u0131n Enflasyon Raporu g\u0131da fiyat\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 26,5 oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatmak isteriz.<\/p>\n
Ayl\u0131k baz da bakarsak; mal grubunda y\u00fczde 2,9 art\u0131\u015f (Eyl\u00fcl: y\u00fczde +2,8) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, hizmet grubunda ise y\u00fczde 1,8 art\u0131\u015f (Eyl\u00fcl: y\u00fczde +4,1) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131k baz da bakarsak ise; Mal grubundaki y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 28,1\u2019den y\u00fczde 27,6\u2019ya ve hizmet grubunda ise y\u00fczde 44,7\u2019den y\u00fczde 44,4\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdi do\u011fal olarak Enflasyon raporunda bu verilerin \u00f6zellikle 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere g\u00fcncellenmesini
\nbeklemekteyiz. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna kadar y\u00fczde 32,5 civar\u0131nda seyredebilece\u011fini ve gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in enflasyonun y\u00fczde 24 civar\u0131na gerilemesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ekim ay\u0131 enflasyon verileri Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir faiz indirimi daha olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor; ancak bu indirimin boyutu Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyonuna g\u00f6re belirlenecek. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 100 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirim daha beklendi\u011fi i\u00e7in, politika faizinin y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 38,5 seviyesinde olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
K\u00f6t\u00fc.. \u015eimdi de PMI verilerine bakal\u0131m. ISO PMI verilerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 46,7 olan man\u015fet PMI Ekim\u2019de hafif bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 46,5\u2019e gerileyerek son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferini ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00dcretimde yava\u015flama e\u011filimi 19\u2019uncu aya ula\u015ft\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha y\u00fcksek oranda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Anket kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n geri bildirimleri, m\u00fc\u015fteri talebinde zay\u0131flamaya ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak da yeni sipari\u015flerde yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131lan personelin yerine yenilerinin al\u0131nmamas\u0131, istihdamdaki kesintisiz daralma e\u011filiminin Ekim\u2019de 11\u2019inci aya
\nula\u015fmas\u0131na neden oldu. \u0130malat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n girdi maliyetlerinde keskin art\u0131\u015f, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde liradaki zay\u0131flamaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak devam etti.<\/p>\n
Firmalar\u0131n 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n geri kalan d\u00f6nemi boyunca kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu zorlay\u0131c\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n yak\u0131n gelecekte sona erece\u011fine ili\u015fkin hen\u00fcz belirgin bir sinyal g\u00f6zlenmemekte.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED) ge\u00e7en hafta beklendi\u011fi gibi faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc, ancak Ba\u015fkan Powell, baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bunun esasen bitmi\u015f bir anla\u015fma oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn aksine, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir faiz indiriminin daha yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n “kesin bir sonu\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131” s\u00f6yledi. Fed yetkilileri d\u00fcn de ekonominin durumu ve kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu riskler konusunda \u00e7eli\u015fkili g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler sunmaya devam etti. ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin devam eden kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n resmi verilerin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemesiyle bu tart\u0131\u015fma daha da yo\u011funla\u015facak. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 65 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 94't\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD Tedarik Y\u00f6netimi Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc'n\u00fcn verilerine g\u00f6re, Ekim ay\u0131nda ABD imalat\u0131 sekizinci ay \u00fcst \u00fcste darald\u0131; zira yeni sipari\u015fler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor ve tedarik\u00e7ilerin ithal mallara uygulanan tarifeler nedeniyle fabrikalara malzeme teslimi daha uzun s\u00fcr\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n
Dolar, Fed'in bu y\u0131l faiz indirimine gitmesine ili\u015fkin \u015f\u00fcpheler nedeniyle euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ge\u00e7en haftaki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1 A\u011fustos'tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 1,1505 dolara kadar gerileyen euro, kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak y\u00fczde 0,1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,1522 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Amazon-OpenAI aras\u0131ndaki 38 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k anla\u015fma hisse senetlerine destek sa\u011flad\u0131 ve Amazon'un hisseleri y\u00fczde 4 y\u00fckseli\u015fle kapand\u0131. Yapay zeka g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu piyasay\u0131 kesinlikle t\u00fcm h\u0131z\u0131yla ilerleyen teknoloji devriminin y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fi bir piyasa olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Bunun yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 pek sanm\u0131yorum. B\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerin devasa Ar-Ge b\u00fct\u00e7eleri var ve bunlar s\u00fcrekli yeni \u015feyler \u00fcretmeye devam edecek. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki gelecekte de buna tan\u0131k olmaya devam edece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, dolar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerinde diren\u00e7 g\u00f6stermesiyle yeniden ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ABD'de faiz indirimi ihtimalinin azalmas\u0131 ve ABD-\u00c7in ticaret geriliminin azalmas\u0131, k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n talebini azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u015fimdi faiz indirimlerine ili\u015fkin ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ADP ABD istihdam verilerini ve Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ISM PMI verilerini merakla bekliyor. E\u011fer bir kez daha kasvetli g\u00f6r\u00fcnen ADP verileri g\u00f6r\u00fcrsek, bu alt\u0131n\u0131n tekrar y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine girmesi i\u00e7in bir dayanak noktas\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Spot alt\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na y\u00fczde 0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 3.992 dolara ve Aral\u0131k vadeli ABD alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u00fczde 0,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.001 dolara geriledi. Di\u011fer yandan spot g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ons ba\u015f\u0131na y\u00fczde 0,1 art\u0131\u015fla 48,12 dolara, platin y\u00fczde 0,1 art\u0131\u015fla 1.566 dolara ve paladyum y\u00fczde 1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1.430 dolara geriledi.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 pek de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Piyasalar, OPEC+'n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrekte \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ara verme karar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirken, artan arz fazlas\u0131 endi\u015feleri devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Brent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u00fczde 0,1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 64,80 dolara ve ABD Bat\u0131 Teksas petrol\u00fc ise y\u00fczde 0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 60,95 dolara geriledi. OPEC+, Nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana \u00fcretim hedeflerini g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,9 milyon varil – veya k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,7'si- kadar art\u0131rd\u0131, ancak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 arz tahminleri nedeniyle Ekim ay\u0131na g\u00f6re h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatt\u0131. Bu durum, OPEC+'\u0131n arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131 kabul etti\u011fini ve muhtemelen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere (yani 50 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na) \u00e7ekmek istemedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu olas\u0131 taban seviyesinin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan olumlu kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.”<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 4 Kas\u0131m (Hibya)- A1 Capital, dolar\u0131n Fed’in bu y\u0131l faiz indirimine gitmesine ili\u015fkin \u015f\u00fcpheler nedeniyle euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ge\u00e7en haftaki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4962"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4962\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nSANAY\u0130 HABER AJANSI <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"