Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m'\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesinde,\u00a0merkezi b\u00fct\u00e7enin, Ocak\u2019ta 215 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131k verirken, 12-ayl\u0131k birikimli a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 1,8 trilyon TL\u2019den 1,87 trilyon TL\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fi belirtildi. Ocak\u2019ta merkezi b\u00fct\u00e7enin 214,5 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131k verirken, faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 dengede 241,9 milyar TL fazla verildi\u011fi vurgulan\u0131rken \u015fu bilgiler kaydedildi:<\/p>\n
“Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131nda 139,3 milyar TL b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, 23,8 milyar TL faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazla verilmi\u015fti. Enflasyona g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltilmenin ard\u0131ndan ise, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n rakamlar\u0131 bug\u00fcn\u00fcn rakamlar\u0131yla 182 milyar TL b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve 31 milyar TL faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazlaya tekab\u00fcl etmekte. 12-ayl\u0131k birikimli bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 1,8 trilyon TL\u2019den 1,87 trilyon TL\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, 255,3 milyar TL\u2019lik faiz-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazla 473,4 milyar TL\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Ocak\u2019ta vergi gelirlerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans ile faiz-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 harcamalardaki kontroll\u00fc art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ocak\u2019ta vergi gelirlerinde y\u0131ll\u0131k nominal y\u00fczde 49 (reel y\u00fczde 12), vergi-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelirlerde de y\u00fczde 93\u2019l\u00fck (reel y\u00fczde 45) art\u0131\u015fla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelir performans\u0131 devam etti. Vergi tahsilat\u0131nda gelir vergisindeki y\u00fczde 71\u2019lik y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaya devam ediyor, ki bu art\u0131\u015fta mevduat\/yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu gelirlerinden al\u0131nan stopaja yap\u0131lan art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi \u00f6nemli (mevcuttaki y\u00fczde 17,5\u2019lik stopaj oran\u0131 Ocak 2025\u2019te y\u00fczde 10 seviyesindeydi). KDV tahsilat\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 81\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f da t\u00fcketimin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretmeye devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Faiz-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 harcamalarda ise kontroll\u00fc art\u0131\u015f trendi devam ediyor; y\u0131ll\u0131k nominal art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 32 (reel: -y\u00fczde 1) olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelir performans\u0131yla birlikte faiz-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 dengedeki iyile\u015fmeye katk\u0131da bulunmu\u015f. 2024 sonunda 836 milyar TL seviyesine ula\u015fan faiz-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n Ocak 2026 itibariyle 474 milyar TL fazlaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc (12-ayl\u0131k birikimli) takip ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
B\u00fct\u00e7ede zay\u0131f halka faiz harcamalar\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Faiz-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 taraftaki bu olumlu performansa kar\u015f\u0131n, faiz harcamalar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7eye \u00f6nemli bir y\u00fck do\u011furmaya devam ediyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n Ocak ay\u0131nda 163 milyar TL olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen faiz harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n bu senenin ayn\u0131 ay\u0131nda 456 milyar TL\u2019ye ula\u015fmas\u0131 (yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131 ilk kez 2016\u2019da ihra\u00e7 14\/01\/2026 vadeli T\u00dcFE\u2019ye endeksli tahvilin itfas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131) Ocak\u2019taki b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedenlerinden biri oldu. Ocak\u2019taki y\u00fckl\u00fc faiz \u00f6demesinin etkisiyle 12-ayl\u0131k birikimli olarak takip etti\u011fimiz \u201cfaiz harcamalar\u0131\/vergi gelirleri\u201d oran\u0131 da yeniden y\u00fczde 20 seviyesinin \u00fczerine y\u00fckseldi. 2026\u2019da kabaca 184 tonluk alt\u0131n tahvilinin geri \u00f6demesi de, y\u00fcksek alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle Hazine\u2019ye ek faiz harcamas\u0131 do\u011furacak. 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 B\u00fct\u00e7esi haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ons alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 3.300 $ civarlar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mevcut alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131yla bu etki 250-300 milyar TL seviyelerine varabilir.<\/p>\n
2026\u2019da B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131\/GSYH oran\u0131, OVP \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerine paralel y\u00fczde 3,5 civar\u0131nda (belki de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir miktar alt\u0131nda) olabilir. 2025\u2019te h\u00fck\u00fcmet projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yay\u0131nlanan OVP\u2019ye g\u00f6re) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan vergi gelirleri 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in de vergi gelir hedeflerinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 potansiyeline i\u015faret ediyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, olumsuz tarafta faiz harcamalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndaki yukar\u0131da bahsetti\u011fimiz potansiyel sapma bu olumlu etkiyi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde telafi edebilir. Bu arada, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 B\u00fct\u00e7esinde de deprem harcamalar\u0131 i\u00e7in 600 milyar TL\u2019nin \u00fczerinde bir \u00f6denek konmas\u0131, deprem harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7edeki olumsuz etkisinin s\u00fcrece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Faiz-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 harcamalardaki kontroll\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla, 2026 sonunda merkezi b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3,5\u2019lik OVP projeksiyonlar\u0131na yak\u0131n bir seviyede (belki de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir miktar alt\u0131nda) ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini bekliyoruz.”<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 16 \u015eubat (Hibya) – Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, Merkezi b\u00fct\u00e7enin Ocak\u2019ta 215 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131k verirken, 12-ayl\u0131k birikimli a\u00e7\u0131k 1,8 trilyon TL\u2019den 1,87 trilyon TL\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":48187,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48186","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48186"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48186\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48187"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48186"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48186"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48186"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"