Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n raporunda cari denge Aral\u0131k\u2019ta beklentilerin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde 7,3 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k verirken, 12- ayl\u0131k birikimli cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 22,7 milyar dolardan 25,0 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi\u011fi belirtildi. Raporda \u015funlar ifade edildi:<\/p>\n
\u201cAral\u0131k ay\u0131nda cari denge 7,3 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. Bu rakam, 5,3 milyar dolarl\u0131k medyan beklenti ve bizim 5,5 milyar dolarl\u0131k tahminimizin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Kas\u0131m\u2019da da cari a\u00e7\u0131k 3,0 milyar dolarl\u0131k medyan beklentinin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde 4,0 milyar dolar olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu rakam\u0131n bu ayla birlikte 3,74 milyar dolara revize edildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131nda cari denge 4,7 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k vermi\u015fti. Bu sonu\u00e7la birlikte, 12 ayl\u0131k birikimli cari a\u00e7\u0131k 22,7 milyar dolardan 25,0 milyar dolara y\u00fckselirken, y\u0131l\u0131 GSYH oran olarak y\u00fczde 1,6 gibi \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir seviyede tamamlad\u0131 (2024: y\u00fczde 0,8).<\/p>\n
Sapma hizmet ve birincil gelir dengesi kalemlerinden kaynaklanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Hizmetler kaleminden net giri\u015fler 2,65 milyar dolar seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek 3,2 milyar dolar beklentimizin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131, ki farkl\u0131l\u0131k turizm d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan hizmetlerden kaynaklan\u0131yor. Birincil gelir dengesindeki (yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlardan elde edilen k\u00e2r, faiz ve temett\u00fclerin net ak\u0131m\u0131) sapma daha b\u00fcy\u00fck; bu kalemden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f 1,4 milyar dolarl\u0131k beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 2,4 milyar dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. Burada en fazla sapmay\u0131 yaratabilecek kalem olarak da reel sekt\u00f6r kaynakl\u0131 1,23 milyar dolarl\u0131k faiz \u00f6demesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmakta (Aral\u0131k 2024: 0,65 milyar dolar, Ocak-Kas\u0131m ortalama: 0,54 milyar dolar).<\/p>\n
Rezervlerdeki gerileme Aral\u0131k\u2019ta devam etti. Sermaye hesab\u0131n\u0131n 2,1 milyar dolar fazla vermesi ve net-hata noksan kaleminin bu kez 1,0 milyar dolarl\u0131k pozitif katk\u0131 vermesiyle, rezervlerdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f 4,1 milyar dolarda kald\u0131. 2025 genelinde kay\u0131t-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sermaye hareketleri ve istatistiki hatalar\u0131 g\u00f6steren net-hata-noksan kaleminden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f 16,6 milyar dolara ula\u015f\u0131rken, rezervlerde 22,0 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir gerileme var.<\/p>\n
Aral\u0131k\u2019ta ve y\u0131l genelinde ba\u015fl\u0131ca sermaye hareketleri \u015f\u00f6ylece \u00f6zetlenebilir: Portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131: Hazine\u2019nin net 140 milyon dolar Eurobond geri \u00f6demesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, hisse senetlerine 839 milyon dolar, D\u0130BS\u2019lere 501 milyon dolar ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r Eurobondlar\u0131na 558 milyon dolar giri\u015flerle, portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 br\u00fctte 1,8 milyar dolar fazla verdi.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yap\u0131lan portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n 1,7 milyar dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131, bu kalemden net katk\u0131y\u0131 0,1 milyar dolarda kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yap\u0131lan portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda 2024\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015flar\u0131ndan bu yana ciddi bir h\u0131zlanma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda portf\u00f6y kanal\u0131ndan 12,3 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir sermaye giri\u015fi sa\u011fland\u0131ysa da, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na yap\u0131lan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n 14,0 milyar dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle nette 1,7 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar: Do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda br\u00fct 642 milyon dolarl\u0131k giri\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131n, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na yap\u0131lan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n 1,1 milyar dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131yla nette 465 milyon dolarl\u0131k \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f var. Y\u0131l toplam\u0131nda bu kanaldan 13,1 milyar dolarl\u0131k br\u00fct giri\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n 9,8 milyar dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131yla net giri\u015f 3,3 milyar dolar ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn kredi bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131: Cari a\u00e7\u0131k finansman\u0131nda ba\u015frol\u00fc \u00fcstlenmeye devam ediyor. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bu kanaldan bankalar 1,3 milyar dolar, \u015firketler kesimi ise 4,3 milyar dolar finansman sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 toplam\u0131nda da bankalar 22 milyar dolar, \u015firketler 21 milyar dolar olmak \u00fczere toplamda 43 milyar dolarl\u0131k kredi bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 (k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma hari\u00e7) ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Efektif ve Mevduatlar: Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 yerle\u015fiklerin mevduatlar\u0131 ve bankalar\u0131n yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015fubelerine transferleri yoluyla Aral\u0131k\u2019ta 5,4 milyar dolarl\u0131k sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 var.<\/p>\n
2026 sonu cari a\u00e7\u0131k tahminimizi 32 milyar dolardan 35 milyar dolara revize ediyoruz. Cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin son d\u00f6nemde bir miktar ivmelendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu art\u0131\u015fta ithalattaki ivmelenmeyle d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki bozulma ba\u015fl\u0131ca etkili fakt\u00f6r olsa da, son iki ayda ticaret d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalemlerde bu bozulmaya fazlaca katk\u0131 verdi. Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc d\u0131\u015f ticaret verisi Ocak\u2019ta 7,5 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etti (Ocak 2025: 7,5 milyar dolar). Buna g\u00f6re, cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki art\u0131\u015f Ocak\u2019ta bir miktar yava\u015flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla beraber, mevcut trendler ve baz etkileri cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki geni\u015flemenin sene sonuna kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Enerji, alt\u0131n ve di\u011fer emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ile k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc d\u0131\u015f ticaret ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k tahminleri \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli belirsizlikler yaratsa da, 2026 sonu i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 32 milyar dolarl\u0131k tahminimiz \u00fczerinde riskler daha fazla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle, son iki aydaki sapmalar\u0131 da dikkate alarak, tahminimizi 35 milyar dolar seviyesine (GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 2,3\u2019\u00fc) revize ediyoruz.\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 13 \u015eubat (Hibya) \u2013 Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan \u00f6demeler dengesi verilerini de\u011ferlendirdi. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47095,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47094","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47094"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47094\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47095"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47094"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47094"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47094"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"