TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Dr. Karahan\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131ndan baz\u0131 sat\u0131r ba\u015flar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p>\n
\u201cS\u0131k\u0131 para politikam\u0131z\u0131n hedeflenen bir sonucu olarak talep kompozisyonunda dengeli seyir demekte. Nitekim 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk 3 \u00e7eyre\u011finde, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na k\u0131yasla t\u00fcketimin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n belirgin olarak geriledi\u011fini, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ise artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
2025 k\u00fcresel ticaret belirsizliklerinin etkisiyle bu d\u00f6nemde net ihracata katk\u0131s\u0131 negatife d\u00f6nse de s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re daha dengeli bir resim mevcut. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011fine dair g\u00f6stergelere bakacak olursak sanayi \u00fcretimi, son \u00e7eyrekte yatay bir seyir izledi. Hizmet \u00fcretim endeksi de ikinci \u00e7eyrekte ba\u015flayan yatay seyrini, son \u00e7eyrekte s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda da dezenflasyonist g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Cari a\u00e7\u0131k, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte bir miktar artmakla birlikte i\u00e7 talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcyle uyumlu bir \u015fekilde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyretti. Bu d\u00f6nemde cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 ise ikinci \u00e7eyrekteki y\u00fczde 1,3 olan seviyesini korudu. Oran\u0131n, son \u00e7eyrekte s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artsa da y\u0131l\u0131 uzun d\u00f6nem ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir miktar y\u00fckselmekle birlikte \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bununla birlikte cari denge \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ile ticaret belirsizlikleri kaynakl\u0131 riskler canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor.<\/p>\n
Dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin hedeflerle uyumlu \u015fekilde devam\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fumuzu kararl\u0131l\u0131kla s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131l i\u00e7inde kademeli al\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131zla AP\u0130 portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fc desteklemeye devam edece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
Son verilere g\u00f6re basit faiz olarak mevduat, ticari kredi ve ihtiya\u00e7 kredisi faizleri s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 37,3, y\u00fczde 38,5 ve y\u00fczde 48,2 d\u00fczeyindedir. Bu veriler, politika faizi ad\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n mevduat ve kredi fiyatlamalar\u0131na \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin etkisini yabanc\u0131 para mevduat geli\u015fmelerinde de izliyoruz. Bildi\u011finiz gibi KKM\u2019den \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinde yabanc\u0131 para mevduatta bir miktar art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorduk. Bununla birlikte 2025\u2019teki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n temel belirleyicisinin alt\u0131n fiyat hareketleri ve bunu takiben Euro-ABD dolar\u0131 paritesindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda enflasyonun y\u00fczde 15 ile y\u00fczde 21 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz. 2027 sonu i\u00e7in ise tahminlerimiz enflasyonun y\u00fczde 6 ile y\u00fczde 12 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na gerileyece\u011fini i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon ara hedefimizi ise 2026 ve 2027 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 16 ve y\u00fczde 9 olarak koruduk. 2028 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise ara hedefimizi y\u00fczde 8 olarak belirledik.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun 2028 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 8\u2019e geriledikten sonra orta vadede y\u00fczde 5 seviyesinde istikrar kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
2026 y\u0131l\u0131 tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcncellenmesinde belli ba\u015fl\u0131 risklerin belirginle\u015fmesi ve varsay\u0131m revizyonlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra T\u00dcFE hesaplama y\u00f6nteminde yap\u0131lan de\u011fi\u015fiklikler kapsam\u0131nda hizmet grubunun sepet i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 da rol oynad\u0131.\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 12 \u015eubat (Hibya) \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Dr. Fatih Karahan, enflasyon raporuna ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klama yapt\u0131. Karahan, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda enflasyonun y\u00fczde 15 ile y\u00fczde 21 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ettiklerini s\u00f6yledi. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46245,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46244","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46244"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46244\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46245"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46244"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46244"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46244"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"