GCM Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Ayy\u0131ld\u0131r,\u00a010 Aral\u0131k\u2019ta ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik projeksiyonlar\u0131n, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirginle\u015fti\u011fini bir kez daha ortaya koydu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Medyan beklentisinin, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in politika faizinin y\u00fczde 3,40 seviyesine gerileyece\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fini, mevcut federal fon hedef oran\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn iki faiz indiriminin hala masada oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine vurgu yapan Ayy\u0131ld\u0131r, de\u011ferlendirmesinde \u015fu ifadelere yer verdi:<\/p>\n
“Ancak detaylara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 19 Fed \u00fcyesinden 15\u2019inin y\u00fczde 3,00 \u2013 y\u00fczde 4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda oy kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu grubun i\u00e7erisinde;\u00a03 \u00fcye faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131,\u00a04 \u00fcye ise faizlerde de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmamas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bildirmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Bu da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m, Fed i\u00e7erisinde tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir politika mutabakat\u0131ndan ziyade, veri ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n giderek artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir karar mekanizmas\u0131na i\u015faret etmektedir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, 18 Mart 2026 Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak yeni ekonomik projeksiyonlar \u00f6ncesinde bankan\u0131n mevcut veri setini ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde b\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl okuyabilece\u011fi ve bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 azalt\u0131p azaltamayaca\u011f\u0131, piyasa oyuncular\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli stratejileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nemdedir.<\/p>\n
Ertelenen istihdam ve zaman\u0131 birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u00f6telenen enflasyon verilerinin ayn\u0131 haftada a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olmas\u0131, piyasalarda volatilitenin ve y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n artabilece\u011fi bir zemin olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te yaln\u0131zca tek bir veri de\u011fil, verilerin birbiriyle kurdu\u011fu tutarl\u0131l\u0131k fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ana belirleyicisi olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Swap piyasas\u0131 fiyatlamalar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in ilk faiz indirimine ili\u015fkin beklentinin Haziran 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Y\u0131l geneline ili\u015fkin beklentiler ise:<\/p>\n
Minimum 2, Maksimum 3 faiz indirimi olacak \u015fekilde \u015fekillenmektedir.<\/p>\n
Burada \u00f6nemli bir ayr\u0131m\u0131 vurgulamak gerekir;\u00a0Haziran beklentisi, yeni ba\u015fkanla birlikte \u201cpsikolojik bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimi\u201d varsay\u0131m\u0131ndan ziyade, makroekonomik g\u00f6stergelerin ancak bu tarihe kadar yeterli veri tutarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sunabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesine de dayanabilece\u011fi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemelidir.<\/p>\n
Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla enflasyon\u2013istihdam ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n hangi y\u00f6nde evrilece\u011fi, Fed i\u00e7indeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n konsensusa m\u0131 yoksa daha sert bir ayr\u0131\u015fmaya m\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi sorusunun yan\u0131t\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirleyici olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisine ili\u015fkin 68 ekonomist ve analist tahminde bulunmu\u015ftur. En y\u00fcksek tahmin 135 bin, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahmin -10 bin olurken, piyasa medyan beklentisi 69 bin seviyesinde olu\u015fmu\u015ftur. Bu kapsamda, -10 binin alt\u0131nda veya 135 binin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek bir veri, piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u00fcrpriz olarak de\u011ferlendirilerek fiyatlama etkisinin daha sert olmas\u0131na neden olabilir.<\/p>\n
Tahmin performans\u0131 en ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 9 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinin 0 \u2013 90 bin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131, negatif ve en y\u00fcksek tahminin bu b\u00f6l\u00fcm i\u00e7erisinde olmamas\u0131 piyasan\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131l\u0131k beklemedi\u011fini ancak belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu nedenle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmenin medyan beklentiden sapma derecesi, Fed\u2019in faiz indirim patikas\u0131na y\u00fcklenen anlam a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na y\u00f6nelik 67 ekonomist ve analist tahminde bulunmu\u015f; en y\u00fcksek beklenti y\u00fczde 4,50, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck beklenti y\u00fczde 4,40, piyasa medyan beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 4,40 olarak kaydedilmi\u015ftir. Y\u00fczde 4,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde seyreden ve son be\u015f ayd\u0131r y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcren i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 4,6\u2019ya ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra Fed \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmu\u015f ancak 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 tamamlarken bu rakam y\u00fczde 4,4\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ferek hem Fed projeksiyonunu desteklemi\u015f hem de piyasalarda Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan y\u00fczde 4,4 \u00fczerinde gelebilecek her sonu\u00e7 Fed \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 yeniden art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 gibi y\u00fczde 4,4\u00a0alt\u0131ndaki bir sonu\u00e7 ise faiz indirimi beklentileri i\u00e7in aceleci bir yakla\u015f\u0131ma ihtiya\u00e7 yok rahatl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.”<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 9 \u015eubat (Hibya) – GCM Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Ayy\u0131ld\u0131r, medyan beklentisinin, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in politika faizinin y\u00fczde 3,40 seviyesine gerileyece\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fini, mevcut federal fon hedef oran\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn iki faiz indiriminin hala masada oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":44522,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44521"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44521\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/44522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"