Alnus Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n raporunda TCMB\u2019nin 2026 Ocak d\u00f6nemine ait \u2018Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi\u2019nin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re; ankette, cari ay (Ocak) i\u00e7in \u2018ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019 beklentisinin, y\u00fczde 3,76 d\u00fczeyinde \u015fekil buldu\u011fu belirtildi. Raporda \u015f\u00f6yle denildi:<\/p>\n
\u201cCari y\u0131l (2026) sonu \u2018senelik T\u00dcFE\u2019 beklentisi; y\u00fczde 23,35\u2019den 23,23\u2019e gerilemi\u015f ve gelecek y\u0131l (2027) sonu \u2018senelik T\u00dcFE\u2019 beklentisi ise; y\u00fczde 17,45 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 17,75 d\u00fczeyine art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Cari ay i\u00e7in dolar kuru (USDTRY) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc 43,5344 TL olurken, y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in beklenti 51,1693 TL ve 12 ay sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in kur beklentisi ise 51,879 TL d\u00fczeyinde \u015fekil buldu.<\/p>\n
Cari i\u015flemler dengesine ili\u015fkin, 2026 y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in; 25,2 milyar dolarl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k(-) beklentisinden 25,6 milyar dolarl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k (-) tahminine revize yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n
2027 y\u0131lsonunda ise; cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n (-) 29,5 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmekte. 2026 i\u00e7in GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc; ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ay y\u00fczde 3,9 d\u00fczeyinde yer alan tahmine paralel a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2027 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi ise; y\u00fczde 4,3 olmu\u015ftur. TCMB\u2019nin, son PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 38,00 d\u00fczeyine indirdi\u011fi politika faizine (1 hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oran\u0131) ili\u015fkin; ilk Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin 150 baz puan indirilece\u011fi, ikinci PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 140 baz puan civar\u0131nda bir faiz indirimi daha yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda da 130 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda politika faizinin; y\u00fczde 28,00 civar\u0131nda bulunmas\u0131 tahmin edilmekte.<\/p>\n
Ankette Ocak ay\u0131 enflasyonunda(T\u00dcFE); gerek \u00fccret zamlar\u0131, gerek g\u0131da ana harcama grubundaki mevsimsellik etkisi, gerek sa\u011fl\u0131k, e\u011fitim, ileti\u015fim vb. baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki sene ba\u015f\u0131 fiyat ayarlamalar\u0131 ve akaryak\u0131t, sigara ve alkoll\u00fc i\u00e7eceklerdeki kamu \u00d6TV ayarlamalar\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 olarak y\u00fcksek bir oran olu\u015fmas\u0131 muhtemel g\u00f6z\u00fckmekte. \u00a0Bizim, Ocak ay\u0131 beklentimiz y\u00fczde 3,65 d\u00fczeyinde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
TCMB politika faizinde; y\u00fcksek reel faizinin \u00f6nden y\u00fcklemeli bir indirime olanak tan\u0131mas\u0131 ve Ocak ay\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 muhtemel baz etkisinden destek bularak bir faiz indirimi yap\u0131labilir. Ancak, Ocak ve \u015eubat enflasyon oranlar\u0131nda olu\u015fmas\u0131 beklenen y\u00fcksek oranlar; TCMB\u2019nin ihtiyatl\u0131 bir patika izlemesine neden olabilir.<\/p>\n
Cari denge ve kur (Dolar-TL) beklentilerimiz; s\u0131ras\u0131yla -24 milyar dolar ve 51,00 TL d\u00fczeyindedir. Bu anlamda, tahminlerimiz ankete nazaran bir miktar pozitiflik i\u00e7ermektedir. Cari y\u0131l i\u00e7in GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminimiz ise; y\u00fczde 3,9 ile ankete paraleldir.\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 16 Ocak (Hibya) \u2013 Alnus Yat\u0131r\u0131m, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda politika faizinin; y\u00fczde 28,00 civar\u0131nda bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n tahmin edildi\u011fini bildirdi. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34302,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34301","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34301"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34301\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34302"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34301"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34301"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34301"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"