Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n raporunda Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda cari dengenin 4,0 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k verdi\u011fi belirtildi. Bu rakam\u0131n, 3,0 milyar dolarl\u0131k medyan piyasa beklentisinin ve 3,1 milyar dolarl\u0131k tahminlerin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi aktar\u0131lan raporda \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmelere yer verildi:<\/p>\n
\u201cHizmetler dengesinden kaynaklanan net giri\u015fler 3,9 milyar dolar \u00a0ile 4,3 milyar dolar \u00a0beklentimizin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, birincil gelir dengesi (yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlardan elde edilen kar, faiz ve temett\u00fclerin net ak\u0131m\u0131) 1,6 milyar dolar \u00a0\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f kaydetti (bizim 1,2 milyar dolar \u00a0beklentimize k\u0131yasla). Bu iki kalem, man\u015fet ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmenin tahminimizden sapmas\u0131nda ba\u015fl\u0131ca belirleyici unsurlar oldu. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131nda cari denge 2,8 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k vermi\u015fti. Bu sonu\u00e7la birlikte, 12 ayl\u0131k birikimli cari a\u00e7\u0131k 22,0 milyar dolar 'dan 23,2 milyar dolar 'a (GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 1,5\u2019i) y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Rezervlerdeki gerileme Kas\u0131m\u2019da h\u0131zlanarak devam etti. Kas\u0131m\u2019da sermaye hesab\u0131 1,1 milyar dolar \u00a0fazla verse de, net-hata noksan kalemindeki 1,9 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n da etkisiyle resmi rezervlerde 4,8 milyar dolarl\u0131k gerileme oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ocak-Kas\u0131m d\u00f6neminde ise, kay\u0131t-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sermaye hareketlerini (ve istatistiki hatalar\u0131) g\u00f6steren net-hata-noksan kaleminden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f 18,0 milyar dolar \u2019a ula\u015f\u0131rken, buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak rezervlerde de 17,9 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir gerileme var.<\/p>\n
Kas\u0131m\u2019da sermaye hareketlerinin detaylar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6ylece \u00f6zetlenebilir: Do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar: Br\u00fctte 990 milyon dolarl\u0131k giri\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131n, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na yap\u0131lan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n 647 milyon dolar \u2019a ula\u015fmas\u0131yla nette sadece 342 milyon dolarl\u0131k giri\u015f sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f. Bu kanaldan 11-ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde de 3,7 milyar dolar \u2019l\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131: D\u0130BS\u2019lere 1,65 milyar dolarl\u0131k yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Hazine\u2019nin 0,6 milyar dolarl\u0131k, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn de 0,2 milyar dolarl\u0131k net Eurobond geri \u00f6demesi ve hisse senetlerinden 59 milyon dolarl\u0131k \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f toplam giri\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f. Bunlara ek olarak, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yap\u0131lan portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n 1,8 milyar dolar \u2019a ula\u015fmas\u0131yla nette 1,0 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fckmekte. Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yap\u0131lan portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda 2024\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015flar\u0131ndan bu yana ciddi bir h\u0131zlanma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor, ki 12-ayl\u0131k birikimli bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 13,2 milyar dolarl\u0131k sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Buna g\u00f6re, son 12-ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde portf\u00f6y kanal\u0131ndan 10,2 milyar dolarl\u0131k giri\u015f olsa da, nette 3,0 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn kredi bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 ise cari a\u00e7\u0131k finansman\u0131nda ba\u015frol\u00fc \u00fcstlenmeye devam ediyor. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda bankalar\u0131 bu yolla 1,5 milyar dolar, \u015firketler kesimi ise 2,0 milyar dolar \u00a0finansman sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Cari a\u00e7\u0131k beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gitse de y\u00f6netilebilir seviyelerde kalmaya devam ediyor. Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aral\u0131k ay\u0131na ait \u00f6nc\u00fc d\u0131\u015f ticaret verisi rekor ihracat rakam\u0131na (26,4 milyar dolar ) ra\u011fmen ithalatta devam eden ivmelenme nedeniyle 9,4 milyar dolar gibi y\u00fcksek d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Bu rakama g\u00f6re cari a\u00e7\u0131k 5,5-5,6 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir (Aral\u0131k 2024: 4,7 milyar dolar ). Bu da cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin h\u0131zlanarak s\u00fcrmesi ve y\u0131l\u0131 24 milyar dolar \u2019\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde bir seviyede tamamlamas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Uzunca bir s\u00fcredir 22,0 milyar dolar olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 2025 sonu cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakam\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ay 22,5 milyar dolar \u2019a revize etmi\u015ftik. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki art\u0131\u015f trendinin son aylarda beklentilere g\u00f6re h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. 26 Aral\u0131k\u2019ta yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z Strateji Raporumuzda 2026 y\u0131l sonuna ili\u015fkin cari a\u00e7\u0131k tahminimizi de 32 milyar dolar \u00a0(GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,9\u2019u) olarak tahmin etmi\u015ftik. \u0130thalatta bir s\u00fcredir g\u00f6zlemledi\u011fimiz ivmelenme yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere i\u015faret etmekle birlikte, genel d\u0131\u015f denge g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00f6netilebilir olmaya devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 13 Ocak (Hibya) \u2013 Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, cari denge Kas\u0131m\u2019da 4,0 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k verirken, 12 ayl\u0131k birikimli cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 22,0 milyar dolardan 23,2 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi\u011fini bildirdi. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":33006,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33005","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33005"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33005\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33006"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33005"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33005"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33005"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"