{"id":31712,"date":"2026-01-10T11:15:03","date_gmt":"2026-01-10T08:15:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/2026\/01\/10\/altinda-ithalat-kotalari-uzun-vadede-maliyet-yaratiyor"},"modified":"2026-01-10T11:15:03","modified_gmt":"2026-01-10T08:15:03","slug":"altinda-ithalat-kotalari-uzun-vadede-maliyet-yaratiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/2026\/01\/10\/altinda-ithalat-kotalari-uzun-vadede-maliyet-yaratiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131nda ithalat kotalar\u0131, uzun vadede maliyet yarat\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prof. Dr. Metin Duyar, ''T\u00fcrkiye'de alt\u0131n ithalat kotalar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik etkisi: fiyat, cari denge ve kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonomi \u00fczerine bir analiz (2018\u20132025)'' adl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda, 2018\u20132025 d\u00f6nemi temel al\u0131narak T\u00fcrkiye'de uygulanan alt\u0131n ithalat kotalar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik etkilerini \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc analiz etti.<\/p>\n

Prof. Dr. Duyar, H\u0130BYA'ya yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, \u00f6ncelikle kota uygulamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi ve sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde alt\u0131n ithalat hacmindeki de\u011fi\u015fimin incelendi\u011fini, ard\u0131ndan bu de\u011fi\u015fimin alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131na olan etkisinin Kitco (Kanada merkezli k\u00fcresel k\u0131ymetli metaller otoritesi ve k\u00fcl\u00e7e \u00fcr\u00fcnleri perakendecisi) ve Borsa \u0130stanbul (BIST) verileri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\"\"\n<\/p>\n

Temel bulgulardan ilkinin, alt\u0131n ithalat hacminin kota sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n y\u00fczde 40\u201350 alt\u0131na inmesi oldu\u011funu aktaran Prof. Dr. Duyar, ''\u0130thalattaki bu keskin daralma, i\u00e7 piyasada gram alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 fiyatlara k\u0131yasla kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Kitco ve BIST verilerinin kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, d\u00f6viz kuru etkisi ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dahi i\u00e7 piyasada yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20 d\u00fczeyinde i\u00e7sel prim olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu durum, arz k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131n fiyat olu\u015fum mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 bozdu\u011funu ve piyasay\u0131 yapay olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.'' dedi.<\/p>\n

Prof. Dr. Duyar, ikinci bulgunun, kota uygulamas\u0131n\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa k\u0131sa vadede olumlu katk\u0131 sunmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, bu etkinin yap\u0131salla\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 2022'de cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 22'sine denk gelen alt\u0131n kaynakl\u0131 d\u00f6viz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 2024'te y\u00fczde 8'e gerilemesinin olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 yollardan kar\u015f\u0131lanma ihtimalinin bu iyile\u015fmenin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn istatistiksel nitelikte olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

\"\"\n<\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bulgunun ise mevcut politikalar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi durumunda, 2025-2026 d\u00f6neminde alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda seyredece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu ifade eden Prof. Dr. Duyar, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n

''Model tahminlerine g\u00f6re arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 devam edecek, i\u00e7 piyasa fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma yap\u0131sal bir nitelik kazanacak ve piyasa belirsizli\u011fi yat\u0131r\u0131m davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkileyecektir. Bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7, kota uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonomi \u00fczerinde yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 te\u015fvik edici etkilerdir. Literat\u00fcrde do\u011frudan arz m\u00fcdahalelerinin kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 faaliyetleri tetikledi\u011fi s\u0131k\u00e7a vurgulanmaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6rne\u011finde de 2023 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde alt\u0131n ka\u00e7ak\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair artan iddialar, fiyat anomalileri ve sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ham madde bulmakta zorlanmas\u0131, resmi arz\u0131n talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamada yetersiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve sistem d\u0131\u015f\u0131 alternatif kanallar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu bulgular\u0131n toplam\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye'nin alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik politika setinde yap\u0131sal bir revizyon gereklili\u011fine i\u015faret etmektedir. Arz\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlamaya dayal\u0131 mevcut yakla\u015f\u0131m, k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan faydal\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de uzun vadede fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 bozmakta, piyasa \u015feffafl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatmakta ve kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonomik faaliyetleri destekleyen bir zemin olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.''<\/p>\n

\"\"\n<\/p>\n

\u00d6neriler<\/p>\n

Prof. Dr. Metin Duyar, konuyla ilgili politika \u00f6nerilerini \u015f\u00f6yle s\u0131ralad\u0131:<\/p>\n

''Kotalar\u0131n tamamen kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede fiyatlarda sert dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7abilece\u011finden, sekt\u00f6r segmentlerine g\u00f6re farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, kademeli esneme stratejisi uygulanmal\u0131d\u0131r. Kuyumculuk, ihracat\u00e7\u0131 firmalar ve sanayi kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in ayr\u0131 kontenjan mekanizmalar\u0131 olu\u015fturulabilir.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye'nin alt\u0131n arz\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ithalata dayal\u0131d\u0131r. Uzun vadede arz ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in rafineri kapasitesinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, kamu-\u00f6zel i\u015fbirlikleriyle yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n te\u015fvik edilmesi ve madencilik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik vergi indirimi, yat\u0131r\u0131m kredisi ve AR-GE destekleri sa\u011flanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcmr\u00fcklerde dijital izleme, ileri tarama teknolojileri ve risk bazl\u0131 kontrol mekanizmalar\u0131 yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131, \u00f6zellikle s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131nda X-ray ve kimyasal analiz cihazlar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Kuyumculuk sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde blockchain tabanl\u0131 stok izleme sistemleri, dijital fatura zorunlulu\u011fu ve rafineri \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f kontrolleri kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n arz\u0131na ili\u015fkin veriler (kota da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m\u0131, rafineri \u00fcretimi, ithalat izinleri, i\u00e7 piyasa t\u00fcketim miktarlar\u0131) d\u00fczenli \u015fekilde kamuoyuyla payla\u015f\u0131lmal\u0131, bu \u015feffafl\u0131k fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 rasyonelle\u015ftirerek spek\u00fclasyon alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"\n<\/p>\n

Fiziki alt\u0131n yerine sermaye piyasas\u0131 ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik etmek i\u00e7in alt\u0131n tahvili, alt\u0131n sertifikas\u0131 ve kay\u0131tl\u0131 k\u00fcl\u00e7e al\u0131m-sat\u0131m platformlar\u0131 yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Alt\u0131n politikas\u0131, rezerv y\u00f6netimi, d\u00f6viz kuru politikas\u0131 ve sermaye hareketlerinin d\u00fczenlenmesiyle entegre bi\u00e7imde ele al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n hem bir yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131 hem de bir ulusal rezerv unsuru oldu\u011fundan politika setlerinin koordinasyonu kritik \u00f6nemdedir. Alt\u0131n ticaretine ili\u015fkin mevzuat modernize edilmeli, kota d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ithalata y\u00f6nelik cezai yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmeli ve kay\u0131tl\u0131 ticareti destekleyici vergisel te\u015fvikler uygulanmal\u0131d\u0131r.''<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n ithalat kotalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede d\u00f6viz talebini azaltarak, cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u00fczerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir rahatlama sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktaran Prof. Dr. Duyar, ''Ancak arz k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 nedeniyle fiyat anomalileri, kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonomik faaliyetler ve piyasa \u015feffafl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bozulma gibi uzun vadeli maliyetler yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu nedenle s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir alt\u0131n politikas\u0131, yaln\u0131zca arz\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya de\u011fil, yerli \u00fcretim kapasitesinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na, \u015feffafl\u0131\u011f\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131na ve kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na odaklanan b\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl bir strateji gerektirmektedir.'' g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

<\/strong>
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mehmet Bayer, 10 Ocak (Hibya) – G\u00fcvenli liman alt\u0131nda, ithalat kotalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede d\u00f6viz talebini azaltarak cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u00fczerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir rahatlama sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, ancak arz k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 nedeniyle fiyat anomalileri (piyasada meydana gelen sapma), kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonomik faaliyetler ve piyasa \u015feffafl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bozulma gibi uzun vadeli maliyetler yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":31713,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31712","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31712"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31712\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31713"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31712"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31712"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31712"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}