GCM Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Ayy\u0131ld\u0131r, TSPB verilerine g\u00f6re 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 dahil olmak \u00fczere 11 ayl\u0131k V\u0130OP toplam i\u015flem hacminin 21,92 trilyon TL seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda kaydedilen 16,35 trilyon TL\u2019lik toplam hacimle k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kesinle\u015fmemi\u015f verilere g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 34\u2019l\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funa de\u011finen Ayy\u0131ld\u0131r, de\u011ferlendirmesinde \u015fu ifadelere yer verdi:<\/p>\n
\u201cTakasbank verilerini baz alarak g\u00fcnl\u00fck b\u00fcltenler arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla yap\u0131lan hesaplamalarda ise 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 toplam i\u015flem hacminin 24,10 trilyon TL seviyesine i\u015faret etti\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu perspektiften bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131na k\u0131yasla y\u0131ll\u0131k hacim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 47 seviyesine ula\u015fmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin hacim verileri, V\u0130OP\u2019un yaln\u0131zca niceliksel olarak de\u011fil, i\u015flevsel kullan\u0131m yo\u011funlu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da geni\u015fledi\u011fine i\u015faret etmektedir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n devam\u0131nda, d\u00f6nemsel kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalarda g\u00fcnl\u00fck b\u00fcltenler \u00fczerinden hesaplanan hacim serileri esas al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131 ayl\u0131k i\u015flem hacimleri incelendi\u011finde, y\u0131l genelinde d\u00f6nemsel aktivite ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00f6zlenmektedir.<\/p>\n
En y\u00fcksek ayl\u0131k i\u015flem hacmi Ekim ay\u0131nda 2,62 trilyon TL ile kaydedilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
En d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ayl\u0131k i\u015flem hacmi ise y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda 1,47 trilyon TL seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
2024 y\u0131l\u0131 ile yap\u0131lan ayl\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmada en keskin art\u0131\u015f Mart 2025\u2019te y\u00fczde 91 ile dikkat \u00e7ekmektedir (2025 Mart: 2,18 trilyon TL \u2013 2024 Mart: 1,14 trilyon TL). Bu art\u0131\u015f, yurt i\u00e7i belirsizlik alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk y\u00f6netimi ve pozisyon ayarlama reflekslerini V\u0130OP taraf\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
En s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f ise May\u0131s ay\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenmi\u015ftir (2025 May\u0131s: 1,53 trilyon TL \u2013 2024 May\u0131s: 1,41 trilyon TL).<\/p>\n
Ayl\u0131k hacim da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ilgisinin y\u0131l geneline yay\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; belirli d\u00f6nemlerde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131p h\u0131zla geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fini ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ayl\u0131k hacimlerin g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamalara indirgenmesi, piyasan\u0131n operasyonel derinli\u011fini ve kat\u0131l\u0131m s\u00fcreklili\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama i\u015flem hacimleri incelendi\u011finde: – En y\u00fcksek g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama hacim Ekim ay\u0131nda 119 milyar TL seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. – En d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama hacim ise y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda 68 milyar TL olarak kaydedilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama hacimlerin daha y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 hacim art\u0131\u015f\u0131, s\u00fcreklilikten ziyade d\u00f6nemsel yo\u011funla\u015fmalarla karakterize edilmi\u015ftir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, hacim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131sal bir geni\u015flemeden ziyade, belirli risk d\u00f6nemlerinde yo\u011funla\u015fan davran\u0131\u015fsal tepkilerle olu\u015ftu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrmektedir.<\/p>\n
Son 13 haftal\u0131k d\u00f6nem (yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 ayl\u0131k g\u00f6zlem penceresi) incelendi\u011finde, V\u0130OP\u2019ta pozisyon alma s\u00fcresinin k\u0131sald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha k\u0131sa vadeli reflekslerle hareket etti\u011fi bir yap\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
En y\u00fcksek haftal\u0131k hacim 20\u201324 Ekim haftas\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 726 milyar TL olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. En d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck haftal\u0131k hacim 15\u201319 Aral\u0131k haftas\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 425 milyar TL seviyesinde kaydedilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Bu da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m, y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde i\u015flem hacminin korunmakla birlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n daha temkinli ve se\u00e7ici bir yap\u0131ya evrildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
BIST30 kontrat\u0131n\u0131n toplam V\u0130OP i\u015flem hacmi i\u00e7erisindeki pay\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n piyasa riskini nas\u0131l konumland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 okumak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Bu pay\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde endeks bazl\u0131 y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131; pay\u0131n g\u00f6rece geriledi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde ise riskin farkl\u0131 kontratlara da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir yap\u0131 izlenmektedir.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca BIST30 kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n toplam V\u0130OP i\u015flem hacmi i\u00e7erisindeki pay\u0131, aylara g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fmekle birlikte ortalama y\u00fczde 30 band\u0131nda seyretmi\u015ftir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, endeks bazl\u0131 risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n V\u0130OP i\u015flemlerinin merkezinde yer almaya devam etti\u011fini teyit etmektedir. Y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde en y\u00fcksek pay Mart ve Nisan aylar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 36 seviyesine ula\u015f\u0131rken, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bu oran y\u00fczde 22\u2019ye kadar gerilemekle birlikte en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck pay olarak da kaydedilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda BIST30 kontrat\u0131n\u0131n ortalama ayl\u0131k i\u015flem hacmi ise 585 milyar TL\u2019dir. En y\u00fcksek ayl\u0131k hacim Mart ay\u0131nda 776 milyar TL ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ayl\u0131k hacim ise May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 460 milyar TL olarak kaydedilmi\u015ftir.\u00a0Ayl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmden g\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011fe \u00e7evirdi\u011fimizde: BIST30 kontrat\u0131n\u0131n ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem hacmi yakla\u015f\u0131k 28 milyar TL\u2019dir.<\/p>\n
En y\u00fcksek g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama hacim Mart ay\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 39 milyar TL, En d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama hacim ise Ocak ay\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyar TL seviyesinde olu\u015fmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
Son 13 haftal\u0131k d\u00f6nemde en y\u00fcksek haftal\u0131k hacim 20\u201324 Ekim haftas\u0131nda 191,84 milyar TL, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck haftal\u0131k hacim ise 27\u201331 Ekim haftas\u0131nda 95,58 milyar TL olarak kaydedilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Bu yap\u0131, BIST30 kontrat\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle volatilitenin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde y\u00f6n tayininde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir ara\u00e7, daha sakin d\u00f6nemlerde ise korunma ve pozisyon ayarlama enstr\u00fcman\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131 verileri birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, V\u0130OP\u2019un y\u0131l boyunca \u00fc\u00e7 temel i\u015flev etraf\u0131nda \u015fekillendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir:<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde endeks kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon alma e\u011filiminde art\u0131\u015f, g\u00f6rece dengeli d\u00f6nemlerde, toplam hacim korunurken, i\u015flem s\u00fcresinin k\u0131sald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve daha s\u0131k pozisyon de\u011fi\u015fiminin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zlenmi\u015f, y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde, hacimsel yo\u011funluk korunurken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n daha temkinli ve se\u00e7ici bir yap\u0131ya evrildi\u011fi izlenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 V\u0130OP performans\u0131; tek boyutlu bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme hikayesinden ziyade, de\u011fi\u015fen piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131na uyum sa\u011flayan dinamik bir yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 profili ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131 V\u0130OP verileri, piyasan\u0131n yaln\u0131zca i\u015flem hacmi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011fil; derinlik, zamanlama ve davran\u0131\u015fsal adaptasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ge\u00e7irdi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n
Bu perspektif, V\u0130OP\u2019un yaln\u0131zca i\u015flem yap\u0131lan bir piyasa de\u011fil; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n okunabildi\u011fi stratejik bir g\u00f6sterge alan\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesini gerekli k\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca g\u00f6zlenen hacim dinamikleri ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nemli yap\u0131sal sinyaller \u00fcretmektedir. Bu sinyaller, k\u0131sa vadeli tahminlerden ziyade piyasan\u0131n nas\u0131l \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlar sunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda V\u0130OP i\u015flem hacminde g\u00f6zlenen art\u0131\u015f, vadeli piyasalar\u0131n spot piyasaya yaln\u0131zca e\u015flik eden bir ara\u00e7 olmaktan \u00e7\u0131karak, risk y\u00f6netimi ve pozisyon alma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinin merkezine yerle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu e\u011filimin 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda da devam etmesi beklenmelidir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede V\u0130OP, fiyat olu\u015fumunu takip eden de\u011fil; belirli d\u00f6nemlerde fiyat beklentisinin \u015fekillendi\u011fi ana platform rol\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcstlenebilir.<\/p>\n
Haftal\u0131k ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck hacim yo\u011funla\u015fmalar\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131ma s\u00fcresinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde k\u0131sald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda da bu e\u011filimin devam etmesi halinde:<\/p>\n
G\u00fcn i\u00e7i ve k\u0131sa vadeli stratejilerin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 artabilir, volatilite d\u00f6nemlerinde hacimsel s\u0131\u00e7ramalar daha ani ve daha sert ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir.<\/p>\n
Bu yap\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zamanlama riskini, kurumlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise likidite y\u00f6netimi ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 daha kritik hale getirmektedir.<\/p>\n
BIST30 kontrat\u0131n\u0131n toplam V\u0130OP hacmi i\u00e7erisindeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde endeks bazl\u0131 enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131 tercih etmeye devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda da y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde endeks kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, daha sakin d\u00f6nemlerde ise hacmin g\u00f6rece da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenmelidir.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, endeks kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n hem y\u00f6n tayini hem de korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 \u00e7ift i\u015flevli kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fine i\u015faret etmektedir.<\/p>\n
2025 verileri, y\u00fcksek hacmin her zaman daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret etmedi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. \u00d6zellikle belirli d\u00f6nemlerde hacim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n artan belirsizlik, s\u0131k pozisyon de\u011fi\u015fimi, k\u0131sa vadeli refleksler ile birlikte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n
2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda V\u0130OP okunurken, hacim verilerinin tek ba\u015f\u0131na de\u011fil, d\u00f6nemsel ba\u011flam ve zamanlama dinamikleriyle birlikte de\u011ferlendirilmesi kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2026 y\u0131l\u0131na girerken V\u0130OP cephesinde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan temel mesaj \u015fudur: Piyasa b\u00fcy\u00fcyor, ancak bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme do\u011frusal ve homojen de\u011fil; d\u00f6nemsel, refleksif ve davran\u0131\u015f odakl\u0131 bir yap\u0131 sergiliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda V\u0130OP verileri okunurken, hacmin kendisinden ziyade hangi zamanlama ve hangi davran\u0131\u015fla olu\u015ftu\u011fu temel referans noktas\u0131 olmal\u0131d\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 2 Ocak (Hibya) \u2013 GCM Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Kudret Ayy\u0131ld\u0131r, T\u00fcrkiye Sermaye Piyasalar\u0131 Birli\u011fi (TSPB) verilerine g\u00f6re 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 dahil olmak \u00fczere 11 ayl\u0131k V\u0130OP toplam i\u015flem hacminin 21,92 trilyon TL seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini bildirdi. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28494,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28493","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28493"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28493\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28494"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28493"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28493"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28493"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"