A1 Capital\u2019in raporunda \u201c2025'i “de\u011fi\u015fim ve s\u00fcrprizler y\u0131l\u0131” olarak tan\u0131mlarken, b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketlerin hepsinin ayn\u0131 sismik sorunlarla -ticaret sava\u015f\u0131, jeopolitik ve bor\u00e7- “i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7ti\u011fini” g\u00f6rd\u00fck. 2025'te, teknoloji, enerji ve jeopolitikteki dramatik de\u011fi\u015fiklikler piyasalar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman beklenmedik \u015fekillerde y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011finden, ekonomi ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 hakk\u0131ndaki geleneksel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceler s\u0131kl\u0131kla sorguland\u0131.\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesi yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Wall Street'in ana endekslerinin 2025'in son i\u015flem seans\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapand\u0131\u011f\u0131, ancak Ba\u015fkan Trump'\u0131n g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi belirsizlikleri ve yapay zeka odakl\u0131 hisse senetleri etraf\u0131ndaki co\u015fkunun hakim oldu\u011fu ini\u015fli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fl\u0131 bir y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u0131ll\u0131k kazan\u00e7lar kaydetti\u011fi belirtilen raporda \u015f\u00f6yle denildi:<\/p>\n
\u201cTrump'\u0131n “Kurtulu\u015f G\u00fcn\u00fc” g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin k\u00fcresel piyasalarda \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7mas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ABD hisselerinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 ve faiz oran\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc belirsizle\u015ftirerek b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi tehdit etmesiyle Wall Street, Nisan ay\u0131ndaki dip seviyelerinden muhte\u015fem bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yapt\u0131. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, yapay zeka hisselerine y\u00f6nelik doymak bilmeyen bir i\u015ftahla desteklendi ve bu da \u00fc\u00e7 endeksin de bu y\u0131l rekor seviyelere ula\u015fmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131l boyunca S&P 500 endeksi y\u00fczde 16,39, Nasdaq endeksi y\u00fczde 20,36 ve Dow Jones endeksi y\u00fczde 12,97 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Russell 2000 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sermayeli \u015firketler endeksi ise y\u00fczde 11,26 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nc\u00fc \u00e7ip \u00fcreticisi Nvidia y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana y\u00fczde 39 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren- yapay zeka ticaretinin bir\u00e7ok faydalan\u0131c\u0131s\u0131ndan biri olan \u015firket, 5 trilyon dolarl\u0131k piyasa de\u011ferine ula\u015fan ilk halka a\u00e7\u0131k \u015firket oldu. \u0130leti\u015fim hizmetleri endeksi Alphabet hissesindeki y\u00fczde 65'lik s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n da etkisiyle, bu y\u0131l S&P 500'de en iyi performans g\u00f6steren \u015firket oldu.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer taraftan Wall Street'in art arda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de kay\u0131p ya\u015famas\u0131, Stock Trader's Almanac'a g\u00f6re S&P 500'\u00fcn genellikle Aral\u0131k ay\u0131n\u0131n son be\u015f i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde ve Ocak ay\u0131n\u0131n ilk iki i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi “Noel Baba rallisi” beklentilerini bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avrupa silah \u00fcreticilerinin hisselerinde y\u00fczde 56'l\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fck ki bu da, Avrupa'n\u0131n askeri korumas\u0131n\u0131 azaltaca\u011f\u0131na dair sinyaller veren ve b\u00f6lgeyi -ve di\u011fer NATO \u00fcyelerini- yeniden silahlanmaya zorlayan Trump'\u0131n da etkisiyle geli\u015fti. Bu durum, Avrupa bankac\u0131l\u0131k hisseleri i\u00e7in 1997'den bu yana en iyi y\u0131l\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131na da katk\u0131da bulundu.<\/p>\n
ABD'de \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7 faiz indirimi, Trump'\u0131n FED'e y\u00f6nelik ele\u015ftirileri ve genel bor\u00e7 endi\u015feleri, tahvil piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi. ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n ” b\u00fcy\u00fck, g\u00fczel ” harcama planlar\u0131, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvil getirisinin May\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5,1'i a\u015farak 2007'den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden oldu. \u015eu anda y\u00fczde 4,8'e geri d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f olsa da, bankac\u0131lar\u0131n “vade primleri” olarak adland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli faiz oranlar\u0131na g\u00f6re yeniden geni\u015fleyen fark, tekrar tedirginli\u011fe yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yapay zeka da, firmalar\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmak i\u00e7in bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131yla birlikte bor\u00e7 yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131 haline geliyor. Goldman Sachs, b\u00fcy\u00fck yapay zeka “hiper \u00f6l\u00e7ekleyicilerinin” bu y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k 400 milyar dolar, gelecek y\u0131l ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 530 milyar dolar harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131, euronun 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 14, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 14,5 oran\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na neden oldu. \u00c7in yuan\u0131 dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 7 seviyesini yeni a\u015ft\u0131, ancak Aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan yen y\u0131l genelinde sabit kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
2026\u2019da sakin bir y\u0131l olmayacak. Trump, Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki ara se\u00e7imler i\u00e7in \u015fimdiden haz\u0131rl\u0131klara ba\u015flad\u0131 ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde Merkez Bankas\u0131'n\u0131n yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131 atamas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu atama, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00c7in ekonomisinin ilerleyip ilerleyemeyece\u011fini g\u00f6recekler. Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sona erdirmek son derece zor olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
ABD piyasalar\u0131 da de\u011ferlemeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan “ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc” bir durumda 2026'ya girdi ve Trump gibi liderlerin se\u00e7menlere te\u015fvik paketleri veya vergi indirimleri yoluyla para vermek i\u00e7in “bahaneler arad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131” g\u00f6rmekteyiz, kolay paran\u0131n yapabileceklerinin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 zorlama riski s\u00fcrekli olarak mevcut. Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda vade primlerinin art\u0131\u015f\u0131, Bitcoin'in aniden de\u011fer kaybetmesi ve devam eden alt\u0131n rallisi gibi geli\u015fmelerde, kenarlarda \u00e7atlaklar\u0131n belirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden g\u00f6r\u00fcyorsunuz.<\/p>\n
BIST\u2019de ise TL bazl\u0131 y\u00fczde 14,56 getiri ile y\u0131l\u0131 bitirdik. \u0130\u00e7 politika da geli\u015fmeler, enflasyon beklentilerinin \u00f6telenmesi, PMI verilerinin g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi zay\u0131fl\u0131k derken Endeks i\u00e7in vasat alt\u0131 bir y\u0131l\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. Ama hep s\u00f6yledi\u011fim \u015fey sekt\u00f6r de\u011fil hisseni do\u011fru se\u00e7, momentumu izle, stratejini konjekt\u00fcre g\u00f6re s\u00fcrekli ayarla o zaman Endeks \u015funu bunu getirdi k\u0131sm\u0131 sadece benchmark olarak akl\u0131n\u0131zda kals\u0131n.<\/p>\n
Sekt\u00f6rel bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda da hep s\u00f6yledi\u011fim i\u00e7lerinden 1 ve ya 2 hissenin ar\u015fa ula\u015fan getirisi nedeniyle \u015fu sekt\u00f6r kazand\u0131rd\u0131 demeyi sevmem ama yaz\u0131l\u0131 da rutini ilk g\u00fcn bozmayay\u0131m ve s\u0131ralamam\u0131z Finansal Kiralama\/Arac\u0131 Kurum\/Teknoloji\/Madencilik\/Halka Arz olurken, Negatif getiri s\u0131ralamas\u0131 ise Spor\/ta\u015f ve toprak\/ Metal E\u015fya Makina\u2019dan olu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
B\u0131st100\u2019de getiri de halka bu y\u0131l arz olanlar hari\u00e7 ilk be\u015f; I\u015f\u0131klar Enerji Yap\u0131 ( y\u00fczde 503), Magen ( y\u00fczde 395) Pasifik Eurosia ( y\u00fczde 358), Kat\u0131l\u0131mevim ( y\u00fczde 376), Ral Yat\u0131r\u0131m Holding ( y\u00fczde 310) olurken Negatif getiri s\u0131ralamas\u0131 Vestel ( -y\u00fczde 59) ,Tureks (-y\u00fczde 57), Reeder (-y\u00fczde 54) ,Trabzon (-50y\u00fczde ) ve KontrolMatik (-y\u00fczde 42) den olu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131 halka arzdan 18 \u015firkete toplamda yakla\u015f\u0131k 46 milyar TL aktar\u0131l\u0131rken, 10 \u015firket pozitif getiri kaydederken, 8 \u015firket ise yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131na pozitif getiri sunamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Halka arz fiyat\u0131ndan itibaren getirilere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda Destek Finans y\u00fczde 1081, Bulls GSYO y\u00fczde 259, Vi\u015fne Maden y\u00fczde 139, Ecogreen Enerji y\u00fczde 115 ve Armada G\u0131da y\u00fczde 76 ile en iyi getirinin ilk be\u015fi olu\u015fturmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
Bakan \u015eim\u015fek, gelir vergisi diliminin yeniden de\u011ferleme oran\u0131 kadar art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, di\u011ferlerinin ise hedef enflasyon do\u011frultusunda bunun alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirmi\u015fti. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda 158 bin lira olan gelir vergisi ilk dilimi, 2026\u2019da y\u00fczde 20.25 oran\u0131nda art\u0131r\u0131larak 190 bin liraya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankas\u0131, ticari i\u015fletmelerde ge\u00e7 \u00f6demelerde temerr\u00fct faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 43 olarak belirledi. S\u00f6z konusu oran 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 53,25 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Resmi Gazete\u2019de yay\u0131mlanan d\u00fczenlemelerle ithalatta ilave vergi uygulanan \u00fcr\u00fcn ve \u00fclke gruplar\u0131na ili\u015fkin kararlar de\u011fi\u015ftirildi. \u00c7ok say\u0131da \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u00e7in tarife kontenjan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. 1 Ocak\u2019tan ge\u00e7erli olmak \u00fczere, 4 bin 344 \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn AB d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ithalat\u0131nda y\u00fczde 48\u2019e kadar de\u011fi\u015fen oranlarda ilave g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi al\u0131nacak.\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 2 Ocak (Hibya) \u2013 A1 Capital, Resmi Gazete\u2019de yay\u0131mlanan d\u00fczenlemelerle ithalatta ilave vergi uygulanan \u00fcr\u00fcn ve \u00fclke gruplar\u0131na ili\u015fkin kararlar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015ftirildi\u011fini, \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u00e7in tarife kontenjan\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28292,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28291"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28291\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28292"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"