Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n raporunda 2026 Finansman Program\u0131\u2019nda toplam bor\u00e7 servisinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 6,0 trilyon TL seviyesinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi. Raporda \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeler yer ald\u0131:<\/p>\n
\u201cBunun 5,0 trilyon TL\u2019si i\u00e7 bor\u00e7, yakla\u015f\u0131k 948 milyar TL\u2019si (kabaca 20 milyar dolar) ise d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 geri \u00f6demelerinden olu\u015fuyor. \u0130\u00e7 bor\u00e7 taraf\u0131nda 2,7 trilyon TL anapara, yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,34 trilyon TL faiz \u00f6demesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken; d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 geri \u00f6demelerinde 590 milyar TL (12,5 milyar dolar) anapara ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 358 milyar TL (7,5 milyar dolar) faiz \u00f6demesi bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Hazine, 5,0 trilyon TL i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 geri \u00f6demesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 5,3 trilyon TL\u2019nin \u00fczerinde i\u00e7 bor\u00e7lanma planlarken (y\u00fczde 106\u2019l\u0131k yeniden bor\u00e7lanma), d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 taraf\u0131nda kabaca 20 milyar dolarl\u0131k geri \u00f6demeye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 13 milyar dolarl\u0131k bor\u00e7lanma (y\u00fczde 65\u2019lik yeniden bor\u00e7lanma) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz \u00f6demeleri bor\u00e7lanma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor. Son y\u0131llarda h\u0131zla artan faiz \u00f6demeleri bir yandan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fmeyi k\u0131s\u0131tlarken, bir yandan da Hazine\u2019ye ciddi anlamda yeniden bor\u00e7lanma ihtiyac\u0131 do\u011furuyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Hazine\u2019nin 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme tahminlerine g\u00f6re, 2,6 trilyon TL\u2019lik toplam i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 geri \u00f6demesinin 1,7 trilyon TL\u2019si faiz \u00f6demelerinden kaynaklan\u0131yordu. \u0130\u00e7 bor\u00e7 faiz \u00f6demelerinin 2026\u2019da da 2,3 trilyon TL gibi y\u00fcksek bir seviyede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Hazinenin 5,0 trilyon TL\u2019lik i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 geri \u00f6deme projeksiyonuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7 finansman\u0131 ve alt\u0131na dayal\u0131 senetlere ili\u015fkin \u00f6demelerin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 nedeniyle, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda toplam i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 servisinin 5,5\u20136,0 trilyon TL seviyelerine, faiz \u00f6demelerinin de 2,5-2,6 trilyon TL\u2019ye kadar \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckl\u00fc faiz \u00f6demeleri temelde artan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 ile ili\u015fkili olsa da, alt\u0131na ve T\u00dcFE\u2019ye endeksli senetlerin geri \u00f6demeleri de \u00f6nemli bir y\u00fck do\u011furuyor. Faiz y\u00fck\u00fcndeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n temel nedeninin, 2023\u2019ten itibaren h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak artan i\u00e7 bor\u00e7lanma ihtiyac\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Bununla beraber, iki \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn daha faiz harcamalar\u0131na katk\u0131da bulundu\u011funu eklemek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk olarak, son 10 y\u0131lda ihra\u00e7 edilen T\u00dcFE\u2019ye endeksli tahvillerin yakla\u015fan itfalar\u0131nda ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llara ait enflasyon farklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6denmesi ciddi bir faiz y\u00fck\u00fc yaratmakta. Nitekim Ocak 2026 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k 410 milyar TL\u2019lik i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 faiz \u00f6demesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131, ilk kez 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda ihra\u00e7 edilen 14\/01\/2026 vadeli T\u00dcFE\u2019ye endeksli tahvilin itfas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130kinci \u00f6nemli unsur ise alt\u0131na dayal\u0131 bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131n itfalar\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Hazine, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 132 milyon gram, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise 52 milyon gram alt\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7 bor\u00e7lanma ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015fti. Bu ihra\u00e7lar\u0131n itfas\u0131 2026 y\u0131l\u0131na denk geliyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan y\u00fckseli\u015flerle birlikte, 2026\u2019da alt\u0131na dayal\u0131 senetler \u00f6nemli bir geri \u00f6deme y\u00fck\u00fc olu\u015fturacak. \u015e\u00f6yle ki, 2026\u2019daki toplam 5,5\u20136,0 trilyon TL i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 servisinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,2 trilyon TL\u2019sinin alt\u0131na dayal\u0131 senetlerin itfalar\u0131ndan kaynaklanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu tutar\u0131n kabaca 700 milyar TL\u2019lik k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 faiz \u00f6demeleri niteli\u011finde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz. Bu arada, Hazine\u2019nin 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda da alt\u0131na dayal\u0131 tahvil ihra\u00e7lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmekle birlikte, bunun son iki y\u0131ldaki \u00f6l\u00e7ekte olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyoruz.<\/p>\n
2026\u2019da i\u00e7 piyasadan yeniden bor\u00e7lanma oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 130\u2019lardan y\u00fczde 110\u2019a do\u011fru bir gerileme bekliyoruz. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Ocak-Kas\u0131m d\u00f6neminde Hazine toplam 2,4 trilyon TL i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 geri \u00f6demesi yaparken, i\u00e7 bor\u00e7lanma tutar\u0131n\u0131n 3,3 trilyon TL\u2019ye ula\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte, yeniden bor\u00e7lanma oran\u0131 (rollover ratio: bor\u00e7 \u00e7evirme oran\u0131) da y\u00fczde 137\u2019yi buldu. Aral\u0131k\u2019taki ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelerle birlikte 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 yeniden bor\u00e7lanma oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 135 civar\u0131nda (2024\u2019teki seviyeye yak\u0131n) ger\u00e7eklemi\u015f olacak.<\/p>\n
2026\u2019da i\u00e7 bor\u00e7lanmada d\u00f6viz cinsi ihra\u00e7lar\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yukar\u0131da da belirtti\u011fimiz gibi, 2024\u2019teki alt\u0131na dayal\u0131 tahvil ihra\u00e7lar\u0131 2026\u2019da \u00f6nemli bir geri \u00f6deme y\u00fck\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor. Yukar\u0131da Grafik 2\u2019den de g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi \u00fczere, 2026\u2019da i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 geri \u00f6demelerinin y\u00fczde 30\u2019a yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6viz cinsi tahviller olu\u015fturuyor, ki bunun da \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131 (y\u00fczde 20\u2019den fazlas\u0131) alt\u0131na dayal\u0131 senetlerden olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n
Hazinenin 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda da alt\u0131na dayal\u0131 tahvil ihra\u00e7lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmekle birlikte, bunun son iki y\u0131la nazaran \u00e7ok daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oranda olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Buna g\u00f6re, 2026\u2019daki yeni ihra\u00e7larda T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na dayal\u0131 senetlerin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. TL ihra\u00e7larda da, T\u00dcFE\u2019ye endeksli tahvillerin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da alt\u0131n tahvilleri gibi gerilemesi, ihra\u00e7lar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla sabit kuponlu tahvillere ve de TLREF\u2019e endeksli tahvillere yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131 beklenebilir.\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 31 Aral\u0131k (Hibya) \u2013 Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, 2026\u2019da y\u00fckl\u00fc faiz \u00f6demeleriyle yo\u011fun bir i\u00e7 bor\u00e7lanma takviminin beklendi\u011fini bildirdi. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27816,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27815\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27816"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"