A1 Capital\u2019in raporunda Asya borsalar\u0131n\u0131n, bu sabah, yapay zeka harcamalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin yenilenen endi\u015feler nedeniyle teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn darbe almas\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015farken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131ndaki politika farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayacak bir dizi merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Raporda \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmelere yer verildi:<\/p>\n
\u201cAvrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, Norve\u00e7 Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve \u0130rlanda Merkez Bankas\u0131, politika kararlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacaklar ve her \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fcn de faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutmas\u0131 beklendi\u011fi i\u00e7in odak noktas\u0131 tamamen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00fczerinde olacak. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de ise faiz indirimi cepte.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131'n\u0131n Ekim ay\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan bu yana gelen veriler, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karacak \u00e7ok az \u015fey ortaya koydu ve bu da bir kez daha ECB\u2019nin 'iyi bir konumda' oldu\u011funu teyit ediyor. ECB\u2019de odak noktam\u0131z ekonomik tahminleri olacak. son d\u00f6nemde s\u0131k\u00e7a verilerden g\u00f6rerek dile getirdi\u011fimiz gibi, ABD g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri AB\u2019nin ihracat\u0131n\u0131 hala olumsuz etkiliyor, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar belirsizlik nedeniyle engelleniyor ve 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde devasa Alman mali te\u015fvikine ba\u011fl\u0131 kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ECB y\u00f6netim kurulu \u00fcyesi Isabel Schnabel \u00f6nceki hafta, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon risklerinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylese de, bunun ECB tahminlerine yans\u0131mas\u0131 beklenmiyor. Piyasalar; B\u00fcy\u00fcme de s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 g\u00f6rmezken, Enflasyon konusunda ise, 2026 tahmini Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 1,7 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 1,8\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesini ama 2027 tahminin de ETS2'nin gecikmeli uygulanmas\u0131 nedeniyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizesi konusunda ikiye b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Sonu\u00e7 olarak , 2026 ve 2027 i\u00e7in enflasyon tahminleri a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a y\u00fczde 2'nin alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fundan, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri \u00f6l\u00e7mek zor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere'de enflasyon Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00f6tesinde keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle y\u00fczde 3,2'ye gerileyerek Mart ay\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Verilerin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sterlin, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yar\u0131m sentten fazla de\u011fer kaybetti; faiz oran\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemleri ise bug\u00fcn \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse y\u00fczde 100, 2026'da ise birden fazla faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek olarak fiyatland\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ay \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Komitesi, 2024'ten beri izledi\u011fi \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k faiz indirimleri d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc bozarak faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde 5'e 4 oyla karar alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ki beklentiler bu ay i\u00e7inde indiriminin sadece 5'e 4 gibi dar bir farkla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki oylamada fiyat indirimine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan \u00fcyeler aras\u0131nda, Ba\u015fkan Andrew Bailey'nin taraf de\u011fi\u015ftirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 en y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; zira karar tutanaklar\u0131nda, indirimi desteklemeden \u00f6nce “bu y\u0131l” fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131nda daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rmek istedi\u011fini belirtmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump, d\u00fcn g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131'n\u0131n bir sonraki ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n “\u00e7ok fazla” d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesine inanan biri olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Trump, “Yak\u0131nda Federal Rezerv'in yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131m; kendisi faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesine ve ipotek \u00f6demelerinin daha da azalmas\u0131na inan\u0131yor,” dedi.<\/p>\n
Daha \u00f6nce yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, mevcut Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell'\u0131n yerine ge\u00e7ecek ki\u015fiyi gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015fti. Adaylardan Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh ve Chris Waller faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu ankinden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor. Ancak hi\u00e7biri, FED\u2019i Trump'\u0131n talep etti\u011fi kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131na, baz\u0131 durumlarda kriz seviyesi olan y\u00fczde 1'e kadar indirmeye zorlayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtmedi. Mevcut Fed faiz oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,5 ile y\u00fczde 3,75 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor ve Trump'\u0131n son atad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ba\u015fkan Stephen Miran bile bu kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 savunmuyor.<\/p>\n
Trump, ipotek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesini defalarca arzulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi, ancak Fed'in kontrol etti\u011fi faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri \u00fczerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir etkisi var ki bunlar da genellikle Fed'in daha az etkiye sahip oldu\u011fu uzun vadeli faiz oranlar\u0131ndan, \u00f6rne\u011fin 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine bonosu getirisinden etkilenir. Bu oran da, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve enflasyonuna ili\u015fkin beklentilerinden etkilenir ki Trump d\u00f6neminde \u00e7ok az de\u011fi\u015fiklik g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Konut kredisi faiz oranlar\u0131 ise \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Bayram\u0131'ndan bu yana y\u00fczde 6,3- y\u00fczde 6,4 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumdad\u0131r ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere do\u011fru hareket edece\u011fine dair \u00e7ok az i\u015faret bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump'\u0131n Venezuela'ya giri\u015f ve \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapan t\u00fcm yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulanan petrol tankerlerine “abluka” emri vermesinin ard\u0131ndan piyasalar arz riskini de\u011ferlendirdi ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinden toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hareketin oldu\u011fu yerlere bakal\u0131m\u2026 G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f yeni bir rekor k\u0131rarak alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Waller'\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, Fed'in devam eden faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor ki bu da \u015fu anda hem alt\u0131n\u0131 hem de g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. Bakal\u0131m bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi'ni ve ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksleri nas\u0131l etkileyecek.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak spot alt\u0131n, 4348 usd\u2019yi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra kar realizasyonu ile y\u00fczde 0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 4.332 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rmekte. Spot g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, d\u00fcn 66,88 dolarl\u0131k rekor seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra 08.02 itibaiyle 66,44 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rmekte ve y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana y\u00fczde 129 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc end\u00fcstriyel talep, istikrarl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m ilgisi ve azalan stoklar sayesinde alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 65'lik kazanc\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f durumda. Platin y\u00fczde 3,6 artarak 1.966 dolara y\u00fckseldi ve 17 y\u0131ldan fazla bir s\u00fcredir en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ve paladyum ise yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 1 art\u0131\u015fla 1.663 dolar seviyesine \u00e7\u0131karak neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131.\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 18 Aral\u0131k (Hibya) \u2013 A1 Capital, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yeni bir rekor k\u0131rarak alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu\u011funu bildirdi. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21872,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21871","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21871"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21871\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21872"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"