D\u00fcnyadaki her d\u00f6rt ki\u015fiden biri \u2013 yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 milyar insan \u2013 art\u0131k mevsimsellikte orta ila y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fayan b\u00f6lgelerde ya\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomi ve Bar\u0131\u015f Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IEP) taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan yeni ara\u015ft\u0131rma, de\u011fi\u015fen ya\u011f\u0131\u015f modellerinin d\u00fcnya genelinde \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma risklerini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan Ekolojik Tehdit Raporu 2025 (ETR), ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n y\u0131l i\u00e7inde daha az aya yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde, daha dengeli da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgelere k\u0131yasla \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma kaynakl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00fcm oranlar\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n
Temel bulgular<\/p>\n
– Ya\u011f\u0131\u015fl\u0131 ve kurak mevsimlerin giderek daha a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hale geldi\u011fi b\u00f6lgelerde, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00fcmler di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelere g\u00f6re ortalama d\u00f6rt kat daha fazla.<\/p>\n
-2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda, 163 \u00fclkede do\u011fal afetler 45 milyon k\u0131sa vadeli i\u00e7 g\u00f6\u00e7e yol a\u00e7arak, 2008'den bu yana kaydedilen en y\u00fcksek say\u0131ya ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
-Amazon\u2019un bat\u0131 kesimlerini de i\u00e7eren Bat\u0131 Brezilya, d\u00fcnyadaki en keskin ekolojik tehdit art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan birini ya\u015fad\u0131. B\u00f6lgedeki s\u0131cakl\u0131klar k\u00fcresel ortalaman\u0131n iki kat\u0131 h\u0131zla artarken, bu durum kurakl\u0131k ve orman yang\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi.<\/p>\n
-Sahra Alt\u0131 Afrika, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en ciddi ekolojik bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yor; Nijer, en k\u00f6t\u00fc ETR skoruna sahip \u00fclke olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
-Orta ve Bat\u0131 Avrupa, 2019\u2019daki ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 kurak iklim ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan genel olarak normale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc temsil eden \u00f6nemli iyile\u015fmeler kaydetti.<\/p>\n
-Su sava\u015flar\u0131na dair endi\u015felere ra\u011fmen, modern \u00e7a\u011fda sadece su nedeniyle \u00e7\u0131kan devletler aras\u0131 bir sava\u015f ya\u015fanmad\u0131. \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan bu yana, en az 157 uluslararas\u0131 tatl\u0131 su antla\u015fmas\u0131 imzaland\u0131 ve bu antla\u015fmalar \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 i\u015f birli\u011fi i\u00e7in \u00f6rnek te\u015fkil ediyor.<\/p>\n
-Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, n\u00fckleer cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k modeline benzetiliyor: her iki durumda da, y\u0131k\u0131m tehdidi pragmatik i\u015f birli\u011fini te\u015fvik ediyor. Su tedarikinin yok olmas\u0131, toplumsal \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beraberinde getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 milyar insan, mevsimsellikte orta ila ciddi d\u00fczeyde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00f6lgelerde ya\u015f\u0131yor. Ya\u011f\u0131\u015fl\u0131 mevsimler daha k\u0131sa ve yo\u011fun hale gelirken, kurak d\u00f6nemler daha uzun ve \u015fiddetli oluyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fimler, tar\u0131msal d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri bozuyor ve ge\u00e7imini mevsimsel ya\u011f\u0131\u015flara dayand\u0131ran milyarlarca insan i\u00e7in belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ETR, 172 \u00fclke ve b\u00f6lgedeki 3.125 alt-b\u00f6lgeyi kaps\u0131yor ve d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun %99\u2019undan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 temsil ediyor. 2019\u20132024 aras\u0131nda 96 \u00fclkede skorlar k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015firken, 74 \u00fclkede iyile\u015fme kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Sahra Alt\u0131 Afrika \u00e7oklu k\u0131r\u0131lma noktalar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yor<\/p>\n
Sahra Alt\u0131 Afrika\u2019da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski, mevsimsellikteki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 n\u00fcfus b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle birle\u015fmesi durumunda keskin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseliyor. Belirsiz ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar tar\u0131msal stresi tetiklerken, demografik bask\u0131larla birle\u015fti\u011finde toprak, su ve g\u0131da \u00fczerindeki rekabet h\u0131zla yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor. Zay\u0131f y\u00f6neti\u015fim ve \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclememi\u015f toplumsal k\u0131rg\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n oldu\u011fu b\u00f6lgelerde bu bile\u015fim patlamaya haz\u0131r bir kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m haline geliyor.<\/p>\n
Do\u011fu Afrika\u2019daki Karamoja K\u00fcmesi bu durumu \u00f6rnekliyor. Toplam ya\u011f\u0131\u015f nispeten sabit kalsa da zamanlamas\u0131 daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez hale geldi; bu da hem kurakl\u0131k hem ta\u015fk\u0131n risklerini art\u0131rarak daha fazla \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Ekili arazilerin yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 2\u2019sinin suland\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgede (k\u00fcresel ortalama y\u00fczde 20), topluluklar bu \u015foklara son derece a\u00e7\u0131k durumda. 2019\u2019dan bu yana artan ya\u011f\u0131\u015f mevsimselli\u011fi, y\u0131llar s\u00fcren g\u00f6rece bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan pastoralist \u015fiddetinde yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fle \u00e7ak\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Raporla ilgili de\u011ferlendirmede bulunan Ekonomi ve Bar\u0131\u015f Enstit\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn Kurucusu ve Y\u00f6netim Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Steve Killelea AM, \u201cYa\u011f\u0131\u015f mevsimselli\u011fi giderek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma kataliz\u00f6r\u00fcne d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar az say\u0131da aya yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma kaynakl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00fcmler keskin bi\u00e7imde art\u0131yor. Sahra Alt\u0131 Afrika\u2019da h\u0131zl\u0131 n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu etkiyi b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez mevsimleri toprak, su ve g\u0131da i\u00e7in rekabete d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Sorun su k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011fil; onu yakalayamamak ve da\u011f\u0131tamamak. Sahra Alt\u0131 Afrika\u2019daki tar\u0131m arazilerinin yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 2\u2019si sulan\u0131yor; bu oran k\u00fcresel ortalamada y\u00fczde 20.\u201d \u015feklinde konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Su e\u015fitsizli\u011fi ve altyap\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n yenilenebilir tatl\u0131 su kaynaklar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve giderek daha e\u015fitsiz da\u011f\u0131l\u0131yor. 295 alt-b\u00f6lge \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek su riski, 780 alt-b\u00f6lge ise y\u00fcksek su riski alt\u0131nda; bu da yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,9 milyar insan\u0131 etkiliyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek gelirli \u00fclkeler 2000 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na su kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te bir oran\u0131nda azalt\u0131rken; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkelerde n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131, toplam su \u00e7ekimini art\u0131r\u0131yor ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen su miktar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Sahra Alt\u0131 Afrika\u2019daki ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na su kullan\u0131m\u0131, 2000\u2019deki 113 metrek\u00fcpten 2022\u2019de 89 metrek\u00fcpe gerileyerek k\u00fcresel ortalaman\u0131n be\u015fte birinin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Sonu\u00e7: s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 su kaynaklar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 artarken, \u00e7iftlikler, sanayi ve haneler aras\u0131ndaki rekabet yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Sahra Alt\u0131 Afrika, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck sulama oranlar\u0131na sahip b\u00f6lge. 34 milyon hektarl\u0131k araziyi sulamak, b\u00f6lgenin y\u0131ll\u0131k yenilenebilir su kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 6\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu konuda de\u011ferlendirmede bulunan Steve Killelea, \u201cCOP30, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik ve bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in temel te\u015fkil eden iklime dayan\u0131kl\u0131 su sistemlerine yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00f6nceli\u011fi vermelidir. Nas\u0131l n\u00fckleer antla\u015fmalar yok olu\u015f riskini azaltt\u0131ysa, su konusunda uluslararas\u0131 i\u015f birli\u011fi de ekolojik \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f riskini azaltabilir. Her iki \u00f6rnek de hayatta kalman\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fckten \u00e7ok ortak sorumlulu\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Devletleraras\u0131 su i\u015f birli\u011fi<\/p>\n
Pop\u00fcler s\u00f6ylemler, \u00f6zellikle s\u0131n\u0131r a\u015fan nehir ve g\u00f6l havzalar\u0131nda yakla\u015fan \u201csu sava\u015flar\u0131\u201dna dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Ancak ETR verileri bunun do\u011fru olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Payla\u015f\u0131lan nehirler \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar ya\u015fansa da modern \u00e7a\u011fda su y\u00fcz\u00fcnden \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f bir sava\u015f yok.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 devletleraras\u0131 su i\u015f birli\u011fi modellerinin \u00f6nemini art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00e7a\u011fda, devletlerin neden su payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 konusunda bu kadar ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olduklar\u0131n\u0131 anlamak, gelecekteki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n \u00f6nlenmesi i\u00e7in yol haritas\u0131 sunabilir.<\/p>\n
Hindistan ve Pakistan\u2019\u0131n payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ndus Nehri Havzas\u0131, buna \u00f6rnek te\u015fkil ediyor. Siyasi gerilimlere, asker\u00ee tansiyona ve tekrarlayan krizlere ra\u011fmen, su payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Su anla\u015fmalar\u0131, \u00fclkeleri k\u0131sa vadeli politik \u00e7eki\u015fmelerin \u00f6tesine bakmaya, uzun vadeli ortak \u00e7\u0131karlara y\u00f6nelmeye te\u015fvik ediyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6lgesel analiz<\/p>\n
Sahra Alt\u0131 Afrika h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u015fiddetli ekolojik bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak Lesotho, Ruanda, Eritre ve Esvatini gibi baz\u0131 g\u00fcney ve do\u011fu Afrika \u00fclkeleri, ya\u011f\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fmeyle son be\u015f y\u0131lda su risklerinde belirgin azalma kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Tunus, Fas ve Cezayir gibi kuzeybat\u0131 Afrika \u00fclkeleri, ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ETR skorlar\u0131nda en b\u00fcy\u00fck bozulmay\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131; 2019\u2019daki ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 olumlu iklim ko\u015fullar\u0131, artan kurakl\u0131k ve s\u0131cakl\u0131klarla tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Orta ve Bat\u0131 Avrupa, 2019\u2019daki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kurakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan normale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc temsil eden dikkat \u00e7ekici iyile\u015fmeler kaydetti.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
<\/strong> D\u00fcnyadaki her d\u00f6rt ki\u015fiden biri \u2013 yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 milyar insan \u2013 art\u0131k mevsimsellikte orta ila y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fayan b\u00f6lgelerde ya\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1999,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1998","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1998"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1998\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1999"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nSANAY\u0130 HABER AJANSI <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"