A1 Capital'in de\u011ferlendirmesinde, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerin, Fed'in tercih etti\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi olan ABD Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) Fiyat Endeksi'nin beklentileri do\u011frultusunda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda iyile\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi vurguland\u0131. De\u011ferlendirmede \u015funlar kaydedildi:<\/p>\n
“\u00d6zel istihdam bordrolar\u0131 da 2,5 y\u0131ldan uzun s\u00fcredir en sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc kaydederken, i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. CME'nin FedWatch Arac\u0131'na g\u00f6re piyasalar da Fed'in bu ak\u015fam a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 karar\u0131ndan 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 87 olarak belirliyordu, FED ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak da Powell'\u0131n yerine ba\u015fkan\u0131n ba\u015f ekonomi dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Kevin Hassett'in getirilmesi bekliyoruz buraya kadar hemfikiriz, peki bundan sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in konu\u015fulanla tahmin edilen aras\u0131ndaki farka ne diyece\u011fiz?<\/p>\n
Hassett \u015f\u00fcphesiz Trump'\u0131n sad\u0131k bir destek\u00e7isi. Ancak piyasa fiyatlar\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Hassett liderli\u011findeki bir merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n Trump'\u0131n ima etti\u011fi kadar politika gev\u015fetmeyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor. Asl\u0131nda, faiz vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131na g\u00f6re, gelecek y\u0131l sonuna kadar sadece 75 baz puanl\u0131k bir gev\u015feme bekleniyor. Bu, yaln\u0131zca \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi anlam\u0131na geliyor; bunlardan ikisi b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla Powell'\u0131n ayr\u0131lmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce, biri ise yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131n g\u00f6reve ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte 2026'n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek.<\/p>\n
O zaman soru \u015fekil de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Finans uzmanlar\u0131, yeni FED ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n, ekonomik temellerden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye kararl\u0131, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir Trump destek\u00e7isi olaca\u011f\u0131na ikna olmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak piyasalar buna inanm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu konuda da soruyorumu iki t\u00fcrl\u00fc yapabiliriz. Birincisi; Ya gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha fazla gev\u015feme riski hafife al\u0131n\u0131yor, yani riskli varl\u0131klar \u015fu anda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130kincisi ise; ya da vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131 do\u011fru tahminde bulunuyor ve Fed gelecek y\u0131l \u00f6zellikle \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 olmayacak, bu da hisse senetleri i\u00e7in politika odakl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve dolar i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu durumda \u0130kinci se\u00e7enek daha makul durmuyor mu? Ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn Financial Times\u2019da yay\u0131nlanan haber analizde de S&P 500 endeksinin gelecek y\u0131l\u0131 medyan 7.500 puandan tamamlamas\u0131n\u0131n yani mevcut durumdan sadece y\u00fczde 9 artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini okuduk. Yeni Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n devralaca\u011f\u0131 miras g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 Fed kesintileri beklentisi makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ama Trump h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz indiren Fec ba\u015fkan\u0131 istemiyor mu? \u0130stiyor tabii ki ama.. yeni ba\u015fkan Fed'in politikas\u0131n\u0131 100 baz puan gev\u015fetmi\u015f olmas\u0131yla g\u00f6reve gelecek: Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda iki indirim, bug\u00fcn bir indirim ve gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda bir indirim. Bu, federal fon hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,25-3,50'ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecektir ki bu, \u00e7ok az g\u00f6zlemcinin k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirece\u011fi bir seviyedir. Peki ya tam tersi olursa zaten enflasyonda net istenen seviyede bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yok. Enflasyon hala y\u00fczde 3 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, yeni ba\u015fkan g\u00f6reve ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda reel faiz oranlar\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n olabilir. Dahas\u0131, gelecek y\u0131l “Tek B\u00fcy\u00fck G\u00fczel Yasa Tasar\u0131s\u0131 Yasas\u0131” kapsam\u0131nda vergi indirimleri ve her haneye 2.000 dolarl\u0131k g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi destekli te\u015fvik \u00e7ekleri \u015feklinde bir mali te\u015fvik dalgas\u0131 geliyor. B\u00f6yle bir ortamda para politikas\u0131 ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olarak ne kadar daha gev\u015fek olabilir? diyelim ve bu zihin jimlasti\u011fi daha \u00e7ok su g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcrle g\u00fcne ba\u015flayal\u0131m.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell'\u0131n faiz indirimine ili\u015fkin beklentilerini de\u011ferlendirmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken, alt\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.215 dolara y\u00fckselerek y\u00fczde 0,2 oran\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131. \u015eubat teslimatl\u0131 ABD alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri ise ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.244 dolara y\u00fckselerek y\u00fczde 0,2 oran\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Spot g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi olan 61,46 dolara ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra y\u00fczde 0,6 art\u0131\u015fla 61,06 dolar\/ons seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmekte. Azalan stoklar ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc end\u00fcstriyel talep sayesinde 60 dolar e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu sene bunu \u00e7ok kulland\u0131m ama ne alt\u0131n ne de g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ne de bak\u0131r bizi hi\u00e7 yan\u0131ltmad\u0131. Alt\u0131n\u0131n Trump\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan olmas\u0131 ve \u00c7in Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131yla, G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Nisan ay\u0131nda tariflerle ve LME bak\u0131r\u2019\u0131 da Trump d\u00fczenlemesiyle \u00f6nerdik ki bu \u00f6nerimiz halen devam etti\u011fi gibi 2026 y\u0131l\u0131ndan da devam edecek. Sadece s\u0131ralama Bak\u0131r-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f-alt\u0131n ya da g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f-bak\u0131r-alt\u0131n \u015feklinde olacak.”<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 10 Aral\u0131k (Hibya) – A1 Capital, alt\u0131n\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.215 dolara y\u00fckselerek y\u00fczde 0,2 oran\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18183,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18182","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18182"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18182\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18183"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18182"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18182"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18182"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"