Piramit Menkul K\u0131ymetler'in raporunda “ABD\u2019de PCE enflasyon ve ADP istihdam, Avrupa\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon verilerinin ve d\u00fcnya genelinde PMI verilerinin takip edildi\u011fi haftan\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bu hafta piyasalar Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131na odaklanacak.” ifadelerine yer verildi. Raporun devam\u0131nda ise \u015funlar kaydedildi:<\/p>\n
“K\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131n seyrinde haftan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmesi Fed\u2019in iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 faiz karar\u0131 olacak. Piyasa beklentisi Fed\u2019in federal fonlama faiz aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3,75-4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan 25bp indirimle y\u00fczde 3,50-3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7ekilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Faiz vadelileri yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 87 ihtimalle 25bp indirim fiyatlamaktad\u0131r. Fed, eyl\u00fcl ve ekim toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda 25\u2019er bp indirime gitmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, piyasa Fed\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7 ayda bir g\u00fcncelledi\u011fi makro projeksiyonlara odaklanacak. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n faiz indirimi bask\u0131s\u0131 ve son d\u00f6nemde komitedeki g\u00fcvercin seslerin daha g\u00fcr \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00f6zellikle faiz tahminleri taraf\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikler fiyatlamalarda etkili olabilir. Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan son projeksiyonlarda politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n enflasyon tahminleri y\u00fckselirken faiz tahminleri d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Noktasal grafiklere g\u00f6re:<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in favori enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi \u00e7ekirdek PCE Fiyat Endeksi tahmini bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,1 ile de\u011fi\u015fmezken 2026 tahmini y\u00fczde 2,4\u2019ten y\u00fczde 2,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. 2027 tahmini y\u00fczde 2,1\u2019de sabit kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
PCE Fiyat Endeksi tahmini 2025 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,0 seviyesinde sabit kal\u0131rken 2026 tahmini y\u00fczde 2,4\u2019ten y\u00fczde 2,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. 2027 tahminiyse y\u00fczde 2,1\u2019de sabit kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Politika faizi taraf\u0131nda, 2025 sonu medyan tahmini y\u00fczde 3,9\u2019dan y\u00fczde 3,6\u2019ya gerileyerek bu y\u0131l\u0131n kalan\u0131nda iki kez daha 25\u2019er bp faiz indirimi beklediklerini ima ederken (Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimine gidildi) 2026 tahmini y\u00fczde 3,6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 3,4\u2019e geriledi, 2027 tahmini y\u00fczde 3,4\u2019ten y\u00fczde 3,1\u2019e geriledi. Uzun d\u00f6nem faiz tahmini y\u00fczde 3,0 seviyesinde sabit kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
GSY\u0130H taraf\u0131nda, yetkililerin 2025 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 1,6\u2019ya, 2026 i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 1,8\u2019e yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde revize edildi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 tahmini ise 2025 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,5\u2019te sabit kal\u0131rken de\u011fi\u015fmezken 2026 ve 2027 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 4,4 ve y\u00fczde 4,3 ile a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edilerek uzun vadeli tahmin olan y\u00fczde 4,2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde seyredece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc eyl\u00fcl ve ekim ay\u0131 JOLT anketlerinin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 yay\u0131mlayacak. JOLTs a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 a\u011fustosta 7,21 milyondan 7,23 milyona y\u00fckselse de beklentiyi a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2022\u2019nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yana azalma e\u011filimindeki a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131, pandemi \u00f6ncesinde 2019\u2019un ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki seviyelere yak\u0131n seyretmektedir.<\/p>\n
Haftan\u0131n ilk i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fc Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde aral\u0131k ay\u0131n\u0131n Sentix Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 G\u00fcven Endeksi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ve analist iyimserli\u011fini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks, kas\u0131mda -5,4\u2019ten -7,4\u2019e gerileyerek ge\u00e7en ay yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcveninde bir miktar bozulma oldu\u011funu i\u015faret etmi\u015fti. Endeks, 2022\u2019nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yana genel olarak k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fin bask\u0131n oldu\u011funu, ancak k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n
Haftan\u0131n son i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fc Almanya\u2019n\u0131n kas\u0131m ay\u0131 nihai T\u00dcFE rakamlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Kas\u0131m sonunda a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00f6nc\u00fc veriye g\u00f6re d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ekonomisinde t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 kas\u0131mda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,2 azal\u0131rken y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2,3 artt\u0131. Nihai verilerde de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklenmemektedir.<\/p>\n
– Yurt i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon verilerinin takip edildi\u011fi haftan\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasa bu hafta T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131na odaklanacak. Ayr\u0131ca, hafta boyunca sanayi \u00fcretimi ve perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, cari denge ve TCMB Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi takip edilecek.<\/p>\n
Yurt i\u00e7inde haftan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmesi T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi, y\u0131l\u0131n son Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n
Matriks Haber\u2019in anketine g\u00f6re piyasan\u0131n medyan tahmini politika faizinin 150bp indirimle y\u00fczde 39,50\u2019den y\u00fczde 38,00\u2019e \u00e7ekilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
TCMB, en son yap\u0131lan 23 Ekim tarihli PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini 100bp indirimle y\u00fczde 39,50\u2019ye \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Gecelik bor\u00e7lanma ve bor\u00e7 verme oranlar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 38,00 ve y\u00fczde 42,50\u2019ye geriledi. Para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funa ili\u015fkin ana mesaj korunmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Banka\u2019n\u0131n ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ekim ve (Ge\u00e7en hafta) kas\u0131m enflasyon verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. T\u00dcFE ekimde ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,55 art\u0131\u015fla piyasa beklentisini a\u015farken kas\u0131mda y\u00fczde 0,87 art\u0131\u015fla beklenti alt\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Matriks Haber\u2019in son anketine g\u00f6re kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 2026 sonu faiz beklentisi y\u00fczde 28 d\u00fczeyinde olu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
T\u00dc\u0130K \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ekim ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin sanayi \u00fcretimi, per\u015fembe ise ticaret sat\u0131\u015f hacmi endekslerini yay\u0131mlayacak. Eyl\u00fclde, sanayi \u00fcretimi ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,2 azal\u0131p y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2,9 artarken perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacmi ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,2, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 14,3 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
TCMB haftan\u0131n son i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fc bu ay\u0131n Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketini ve ekim ay\u0131n\u0131n \u00d6demeler Dengesi \u0130statistiklerini yay\u0131mlayacak.<\/p>\n
Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 anketinde kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 2025 sonu i\u00e7in T\u00dcFE beklentisi y\u00fczde 31,77\u2019den y\u00fczde 32,20\u2019ye y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. 12 ay sonras\u0131 T\u00dcFE beklentisi bir \u00f6nceki anket d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 23,26 iken kas\u0131mda y\u00fczde 23,49 olmu\u015ftu. 24 ay sonras\u0131 T\u00dcFE beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 17,36\u2019dan y\u00fczde 17,69\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Ankette, aral\u0131k ay\u0131 TCMB toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in politika faiz oran\u0131 beklentisi y\u00fczde 38,28 oldu. TCMB\u2019nin bir hafta vadeli repo faizi y\u00fczde 39,50 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Nisandaki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan kademeli olarak indirim yapan Banka, en son 23 Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 100bp indirime gitmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Eyl\u00fclde, cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131 1,11mlr USD, alt\u0131n ve enerji hari\u00e7 cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131 6,80mlr USD fazla vermi\u015fti. \u00d6demeler dengesi tan\u0131ml\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 5,36mlr USD olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f verilere g\u00f6re eyl\u00fclde, cari a\u00e7\u0131k 20,1mlr USD, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 da 64,8mlr USD olmu\u015ftu. Cari denge ocak-eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6neminde 14,89mlr USD a\u00e7\u0131k verdi.<\/p>\n
\u0130stanbul Sanayi Odas\u0131 (\u0130SO) haftan\u0131n ilk i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fc kas\u0131m ay\u0131 \u0130SO T\u00fcrkiye \u0130hracat \u0130klimi Endeksini yay\u0131mlayacak. Endeks, eyl\u00fclde 51,7 iken ekimde 52,4\u2019e y\u00fckselerek ihracat ikliminde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir iyile\u015fmeyi i\u015faret etmi\u015fti. Talep ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme art arda 22. aya ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131rken May\u0131s 2024\u2019ten beri en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydedildi.”<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 8 Aral\u0131k (Hibya)- Piramit Menkul K\u0131ymetler, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7 ayda bir g\u00fcncelledi\u011fi makro projeksiyonlara odaklanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16962"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16962\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"