Ahlatc\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131m’\u0131n elektrik piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesine g\u00f6re, toptan elektrik fiyat\u0131 olan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 (PTF) \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte ortalama 2.784 TL\/MWh seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Fiyat ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011findeki 2.879 TL\/MWh seviyesinin y\u00fczde 3,3 alt\u0131nda, 2024’teki 2.521 TL\/MWh seviyesinin ise y\u00fczde 10,4 \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Dolar baz\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f daha belirgin olurken fiyat ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 17,6 geriledi.<\/p>\n
Sistemin g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki anl\u0131k dengelenmesinde olu\u015fan sistem marjinal fiyat\u0131 (SMF), \u00e7eyrek ortalamas\u0131nda 2.644 TL\/MWh ile PTF’nin 139 TL\/MWh alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu fark ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011finde 40 TL\/MWh, 2024’te ise 74 TL\/MWh seviyesindeydi. Fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, yaz d\u00f6neminde sistemdeki elektrik fazlas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
2026’da elektrik fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7eyrek baz\u0131nda mevsimsel seyrini korudu\u011fu, ancak seviyelerin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n gerisinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte fiyat 2.202 TL\/MWh ile 2025’in y\u00fczde 7,8 alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte 914 TL\/MWh ile ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminin y\u00fczde 61,5 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Y\u00fcksek hidrolik \u00fcretim ve zay\u0131f talebin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi\u011fi may\u0131sta ayl\u0131k ortalama fiyat 591 TL\/MWh’e kadar geriledi.<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte so\u011futma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla fiyat yeniden 2.700 TL\/MWh’in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k fark y\u00fczde 3,3’e darald\u0131. \u00c7eyrek i\u00e7inde ortalama fiyat temmuzda 2.700 TL\/MWh, a\u011fustosta 2.908 TL\/MWh ve eyl\u00fclde 2.742 TL\/MWh oldu. Eyl\u00fcl fiyat\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 0,5 a\u015ft\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn, ilk yar\u0131daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn kal\u0131c\u0131 bir seviye kayb\u0131ndan ziyade hidrolik \u00fcretime ba\u011fl\u0131 mevsimsel bir sapma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi de\u011ferlendirildi. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte fiyat\u0131n 2025’teki 2.833 TL\/MWh’lik \u00e7eyrek ortalamas\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131p ula\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131 izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Dolar baz\u0131nda ise \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte fiyat 58,4 dolar\/MWh oldu. Bu seviye 2025’in ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011findeki 70,9 dolar\/MWh’in 12,5 dolar, 2024’teki 75,4 dolar\/MWh’in ise 17,1 dolar alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Fiyattan t\u00fcretilen ortalama dolar kuru bir y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 17,3 y\u00fckselirken, TL baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3,3 olan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dolar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 17,6’ya ula\u015ft\u0131. Dolar bazl\u0131 fiyat temmuzda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 114 y\u00fckseldi, a\u011fustosta y\u00fczde 6 daha artt\u0131 ve eyl\u00fclde y\u00fczde 7,2 geriledi.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcn i\u00e7i fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131n da \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte belirgin bi\u00e7imde a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Saat 12.00’de \u00e7eyrek ortalamas\u0131 1.202 TL\/MWh olan fiyat, saat 20.00’de 4.065 TL\/MWh’e y\u00fckselerek g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 3,4 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu oran ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011finde 2 kat seviyesindeydi. G\u00fcnd\u00fcz 09.00-15.00 saatleri aras\u0131ndaki ortalama fiyat bir y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 16 gerilerken, ak\u015fam 17.00-22.00 saatleri aras\u0131ndaki ortalama fiyat y\u00fczde 11 y\u00fckseldi. G\u00fcne\u015f \u00fcretiminin \u00f6\u011fle saatlerindeki fiyat\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131, ak\u015fam saatlerinde ise fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama fiyat \u00e7eyre\u011fe 1.824 TL\/MWh ile ba\u015flarken 22 A\u011fustos’ta 3.157 TL\/MWh ile zirveye ula\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7eyrek sonunda 2.498 TL\/MWh’e gerileyen fiyat, zirvenin y\u00fczde 21 alt\u0131nda, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 seviyesinin ise y\u00fczde 37 \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. May\u0131s sonundaki 134 TL\/MWh’lik y\u0131l dibinden bu yana toparlanman\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, ancak \u00e7eyre\u011fin 92 g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn 48’inde fiyat\u0131n geriledi\u011fi ve seyrin dalgal\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Fiyat\u0131 \u00f6nce hidrolik \u00fcretimdeki gerilemenin, ard\u0131ndan yaz talebinin destekledi\u011fi, eyl\u00fcl sonuna do\u011fru so\u011futma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla bu deste\u011fin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eyrek boyunca TL bazl\u0131 seri 1.824-3.157 TL\/MWh, dolar bazl\u0131 seri ise 39,3-66,1 dolar\/MWh aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hareket etti. Dolar bazl\u0131 fiyat \u00e7eyre\u011fi 51,2 dolarda kapat\u0131rken son 12 ay\u0131n 72,5 dolarl\u0131k zirvesine yakla\u015famad\u0131. TL baz\u0131nda zirveden geri \u00e7ekilme y\u00fczde 21 olurken dolar baz\u0131nda bu oran y\u00fczde 22,5’e ula\u015ft\u0131. Kurdaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n TL baz\u0131ndaki toparlanman\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc dolar baz\u0131nda geri ald\u0131\u011f\u0131, eyl\u00fcl\u00fcn son haftas\u0131nda iki serinin de gerileyerek \u00e7eyre\u011fi zirvelerinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte lisansl\u0131 santrallerin \u00fcretimi 89,69 TWh, t\u00fcketim ise 100,44 TWh oldu. \u00dcretim ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0,3 azal\u0131rken t\u00fcketim y\u00fczde 1,1 artt\u0131. Aradaki 10,76 TWh’lik fark\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn, \u00e7o\u011funlukla \u00e7at\u0131 ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck arazi g\u00fcne\u015f santrallerinden olu\u015fan lisanss\u0131z \u00fcretimle kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. \u00c7eyrek i\u00e7inde en y\u00fcksek \u00fcretim 31,81 TWh ile a\u011fustosta, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fcretim ise 27,67 TWh ile eyl\u00fclde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eyreklik \u00fcretimde son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ldaki mevsimsel s\u0131ralaman\u0131n tekrarland\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131. So\u011futma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek en y\u00fcksek, \u0131l\u0131man ge\u00e7en ikinci \u00e7eyrek ise en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi d\u00f6nem oldu. 2026’n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00fcretim 83,13 TWh ile son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015farak 2025’in y\u00fczde 2,1, 2024’\u00fcn y\u00fczde 4,5 \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek \u00fcretimi 73,50 TWh ile 2025’in y\u00fczde 0,6 \u00fczerinde yatay kald\u0131. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek \u00fcretimi 2024’te 81,46 TWh, 2025’te 80,10 TWh oldu.<\/p>\n
Son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n 11 \u00e7eyre\u011findeki en y\u00fcksek \u00fcretim 89,94 TWh ile 2025’in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, 2026’n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi 89,69 TWh ile 2025’in y\u00fczde 0,3 alt\u0131nda, 2024’\u00fcn y\u00fczde 1,1 \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Yaz aylar\u0131ndaki \u00fcretimin \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r benzer seviyelerde seyretti\u011fi belirtildi. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk dokuz ay\u0131nda \u00fcretim 246,31 TWh ile ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki 244,42 TWh seviyesini y\u00fczde 0,8 a\u015ft\u0131. Y\u0131llar aras\u0131ndaki temel fark\u0131n, hidrolik \u00fcretim ve \u0131s\u0131nma talebinin belirledi\u011fi ilk iki \u00e7eyrekte ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve dokuz ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n neredeyse tamam\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrekten kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Son iki y\u0131lda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek \u00fcretiminin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin y\u00fczde 8-11 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu e\u011filimin devam etmesi halinde son \u00e7eyrek \u00fcretiminin 80-82 TWh band\u0131na gerileyebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte \u00fcretimin kaynak da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda da \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklikler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Barajl\u0131 hidroelektrik santrallerinin \u00fcretimi bir y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 101,5 artarak 21.879 GWh’e y\u00fckseldi ve y\u00fczde 24,4 payla sistemin en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcretim kayna\u011f\u0131 oldu. Do\u011falgaz \u00fcretimi ise y\u00fczde 56,1 azalarak 10.432 GWh’e geriledi ve toplam i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 11,6’ya d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Mutlak bazda barajl\u0131 hidroelektrik sisteme 11.019 GWh ek \u00fcretim sa\u011flarken do\u011falgaz \u00fcretimi 13.324 GWh azald\u0131. Akarsu 1.925 GWh, linyit 892 GWh, r\u00fczgar 640 GWh ve g\u00fcne\u015f 542 GWh art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterirken ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fcretimi 1.563 GWh geriledi. Yenilenebilir kaynaklardaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n termik kaynaklardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve toplam \u00fcretimin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 0,3 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Toplam lisansl\u0131 \u00fcretim 89.686 GWh ile ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki 89.935 GWh seviyesinin y\u00fczde 0,3 alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Barajl\u0131 hidroelektrik, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve r\u00fczgar birlikte \u00fcretimin y\u00fczde 60,2’sini kar\u015f\u0131larken bu \u00fc\u00e7 kayna\u011f\u0131n pay\u0131 bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 48,9 seviyesindeydi. Yenilenebilir kaynaklar\u0131n toplam \u00fcretimdeki pay\u0131 bir y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 36’dan y\u00fczde 51,8’e y\u00fckselirken termik kaynaklar\u0131n pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 64’ten y\u00fczde 48,2’ye geriledi. Hidrolik a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131ktaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, \u00e7eyrek PTF’sinin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n y\u00fczde 3,3 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedenlerinden biri oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
Elektri\u011fin sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131 ile yak\u0131t maliyeti aras\u0131ndaki fark olarak tan\u0131mlanan santral marj\u0131, do\u011falgaz santrallerinde \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte megavatsaat ba\u015f\u0131na eksi 691 TL oldu. Marj ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011finde eksi 14 TL ile ba\u015fa ba\u015f seviyesine yak\u0131nken, 2024’\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde santraller megavatsaat ba\u015f\u0131na 243 TL br\u00fct marj elde etmi\u015fti. Spot Gaz Piyasas\u0131 (SGP) fiyatlar\u0131yla hesaplanan gaz maliyeti bir y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 20,1 artarak 3.475 TL\/MWh’e y\u00fckselirken PTF y\u00fczde 3,3 geriledi. Gaz\u0131 Boru Hatlar\u0131 ile Petrol Ta\u015f\u0131ma Anonim \u015eirketi (BOTA\u015e) tarifesinden alan santrallerde \u00e7eyrek marj\u0131 ise eksi 821 TL\/MWh oldu.<\/p>\n
K\u00f6m\u00fcr santrallerinde ise farkl\u0131 bir tablo olu\u015ftu. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte tonu ortalama 97,1 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6ren ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcrle 1 MWh elektrik \u00fcretmenin maliyeti 1.702 TL olurken santraller megavatsaat ba\u015f\u0131na 1.082 TL br\u00fct marj elde etti. Marj ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011findeki 1.489 TL’den 407 TL darald\u0131 ve bu daralman\u0131n 311 TL’sinin maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 5 Ekim (Hibya) – Ahlatc\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131m’\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesine g\u00f6re, piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 (PTF) \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3,3 gerileyerek ortalama 2.784 TL\/MWh oldu. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde lisansl\u0131 santrallerin \u00fcretimi y\u00fczde 0,3 azalarak 89,69 TWh’e inerken, barajl\u0131 hidroelektrik \u00fcretiminin pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 24,4’e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":161562,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-161561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161561","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=161561"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161561\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/161562"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=161561"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=161561"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=161561"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"