GCM Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesine g\u00f6re, son bir haftada piyasan\u0131n faiz beklentilerinde de\u011fi\u015fim ya\u015fand\u0131. CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re, 28 Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali bir hafta \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 57,3 seviyesindeyken y\u00fczde 37,6\u2019ya geriledi. Fed\u2019in mevcut y\u00fczde 3,75-4,00 faiz aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruma ihtimali ise y\u00fczde 42,7\u2019den y\u00fczde 62,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Raporda, bu de\u011fi\u015fimle birlikte eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 istihdam verilerinin Fed\u2019in ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 duyup duymad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nem kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam, \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 ve Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7lar verilerinin i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve \u00fccret kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan takip edilece\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
GCM Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminlere g\u00f6re, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi i\u00e7in 73 ekonomist ve analistin medyan beklentisi 85 bin ki\u015fi oldu. Tahminler 35 bin ile 180 bin aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda 162 bin ki\u015filik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaydedildi\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mevcut beklentiler istihdam art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda belirgin bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. Tahmin performans\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ilk 10 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n beklentileri ise 50 bin ile 180 bin aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015firken, medyan tahmin 75 bin, ortalama tahmin 88 bin olarak hesapland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Raporda, tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n, a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verinin beklentiden sapma d\u00fczeyini piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli hale getirdi\u011fi belirtildi. Beklentilerin \u00fczerinde veya alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecek sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n Fed\u2019e ili\u015fkin beklentiler ve k\u0131sa vadeli varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131nda hareketlili\u011fi art\u0131rabilece\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin tahminlerin y\u00fczde 4,00 ile y\u00fczde 4,20 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi, piyasa medyan beklentisinin ise y\u00fczde 4,10 oldu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131. A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 4,10 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk 10 ekonomist ve analistin tahminlerinin medyan\u0131 ve ortalamas\u0131 da y\u00fczde 4,10 olurken, raporda i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerin Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam tahminlerine k\u0131yasla daha dar bir aral\u0131kta topland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin piyasa medyan beklentisi y\u00fczde 3,10 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Tahminler y\u00fczde 3,00 ile y\u00fczde 3,20 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor. A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,10 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Raporda, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam verisinde ayn\u0131 i\u015f yerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya devam edenlerin y\u0131ll\u0131k br\u00fct \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 4,4 ile \u00f6nceki aya paralel kald\u0131\u011f\u0131, i\u015f de\u011fi\u015ftirenlerin \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 7,4’ten y\u00fczde 7,3’e geriledi\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
GCM Yat\u0131r\u0131m, bu verilerin birlikte de\u011ferlendirilmesiyle \u00fccret kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye i\u015faret eden bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Raporda, ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD istihdam verilerinin varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkilerinin de de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fi belirtildi. Ancak ge\u00e7mi\u015f fiyat hareketlerinin yeni d\u00f6nemde ayn\u0131 sonucu do\u011furaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n varsay\u0131lmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bir \u00f6nceki ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan a\u011fustos ay\u0131 istihdam verilerinde Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam 162 bin ki\u015fi artarken, piyasa beklentisi 55 bin seviyesindeydi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 4,1 ile beklentiye paralel ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, y\u0131ll\u0131k Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7lar y\u00fczde 3,1 ile y\u00fczde 3,0 olan beklentinin \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisinin ard\u0131ndan Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, EURUSD paritesi ve ons alt\u0131nda ilk dakikalarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. Takip eden s\u00fcre\u00e7te ise fiyat hareketlerinde farkl\u0131la\u015fmalar g\u00f6zlendi.<\/p>\n
GCM Yat\u0131r\u0131m, bu durumun kritik ekonomik verilerin ard\u0131ndan piyasalarda olu\u015fan ilk tepki ile sonraki fiyat hareketinin birbirinden ayr\u0131labilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 1 Ekim (Hibya) – ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 3,75-4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 28 Ekim\u2019deki Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":160059,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-160058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-ekonomi","category-manset"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160058","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=160058"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160058\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/160059"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=160058"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=160058"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=160058"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"