{"id":14868,"date":"2025-12-03T12:00:02","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T09:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/2025\/12\/03\/marbas-menkul-tufe-piyasa-beklentilerin-altinda-sonuclandi"},"modified":"2025-12-03T12:00:02","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T09:00:02","slug":"marbas-menkul-tufe-piyasa-beklentilerin-altinda-sonuclandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/2025\/12\/03\/marbas-menkul-tufe-piyasa-beklentilerin-altinda-sonuclandi\/","title":{"rendered":"Marba\u015f Menkul: T\u00dcFE piyasa beklentilerin alt\u0131nda sonu\u00e7land\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Marba\u015f Menkul De\u011ferler\u2019in raporunda T\u00dcFE\u2019nin, kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,87 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 31,07 art\u0131\u015f kaydederek beklenti dahilinde piyasa beklentilerin alt\u0131nda sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Raporda \u015funlar kaydedildi:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cE\u011flence ve k\u00fclt\u00fcr taraf\u0131nda \u00e7e\u015fitli dalgalanmalar kaynakl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmler girerken, alkoll\u00fc i\u00e7ecekler ve t\u00fct\u00fcn, ula\u015ft\u0131rma, konut, \u00e7e\u015fitli mal ve hizmetler, lokanta ve oteller tahminlerimiz \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. G\u0131da taraf\u0131nda baz etkisi kaynakl\u0131 ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f izleniyor. Endeks farklar\u0131 e\u011fer n\u00f6tr olsa idi enflasyon Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1,03 ile medyan tahminimize eri\u015fecekti.<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fitim ve konut kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken lokanta ve oteller gruplar\u0131 da T\u00dcFE \u00fczerinde sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. G\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler y\u00fcksek bazdan olumlu yararlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Veriler y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda Markart\u00f6l\u00e7er, kart harcamas\u0131 ve haftal\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlemelerimize paralel sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda enflasyon verisini riskli varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in olumlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yoruz. Beklentiler bak\u0131m\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirecek olursak: Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 \u00f6zelinde y\u00fczde 0,7, Ocak ay\u0131 \u00f6zelinde y\u00fczde 3,3 band\u0131nda enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc yapmaktay\u0131z. Burada alan a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olmaya devam edecektir. y\u00fczde 32 tahminlemesi ve hatta TCMB\u2019nin tahmini olan y\u00fczde 31-33 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyonu potansiyeli olu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n<p>Bu verilerle 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 30,7-31 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2026 y\u0131l\u0131na ise y\u00fczde 29-29,3 ile ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesapl\u0131yoruz. G\u00f6zetim amac\u0131yla medyan enflasyon tahminimizi y\u00fczde 32\u2019den y\u00fczde 31\u2019e \u00e7ekiyoruz. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ikincil bir \u015fok olmad\u0131k\u00e7a en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoda 100 baz puan indirim yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve swap faizlerini g\u00f6zeterek 150 baz puan indirim beklentimizi 200 baz puana y\u00fckseltiyoruz. Y\u0131lsonunda y\u00fczde 31 enflasyon y\u00fczde 37,5 politika faizi ile kapataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz.\u201d<\/p>\n<p> <strong><\/strong><br \/>\nSANAY\u0130 HABER AJANSI <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130stanbul, 3 Aral\u0131k (Hibya) \u2013 Marba\u015f Menkul De\u011ferler, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin, kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,87 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 31,07 art\u0131\u015f kaydederek beklenti dahilinde piyasa beklentilerin alt\u0131nda sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14869,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14868"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14868\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14869"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}