Trive Yat\u0131r\u0131m taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan ECB Faiz Art\u0131rd\u0131, ABD \u00dcFE \u015eahin Fiyatlamay\u0131 G\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi analizinde, ECB’nin haziran ay\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bu y\u0131lki ikinci ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 atarak mevduat faizini y\u00fczde 2,50’ye, ana refinansman faizini y\u00fczde 2,65’e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Karar metninde enflasyonun uzunca bir s\u00fcre hedefin \u00fczerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131, enflasyon risklerinin yukar\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme risklerinin ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Lagarde’\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde iyile\u015fme oldu\u011funu, imalat\u0131n sa\u011flam seyretti\u011fini ve hizmetlerde toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Enflasyon taraf\u0131ndaki as\u0131l mesaj\u0131n ise ge\u00e7i\u015fkenlik \u00fczerine kuruldu\u011fu ifade edildi. Y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n zamanla \u00e7ekirdek enflasyona ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131, rafineri marjlar\u0131n\u0131n bu aktar\u0131mda belirleyici oldu\u011fu ve enerji \u015fokunun g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi halinde fiyatlar ile \u00fccretler \u00fczerindeki etkinin artabilece\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcncellenen projeksiyonlarda man\u015fet enflasyonun 2026’da y\u00fczde 3,0, 2027’de y\u00fczde 2,5 ve 2028’de y\u00fczde 2,1; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun ise s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 2,5, y\u00fczde 2,6 ve y\u00fczde 2,3 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi. ECB’nin \u00e7ekirdekte 2027 ba\u015f\u0131na kadar s\u00fcren bir y\u00fckseli\u015f, ard\u0131ndan kademeli bir gerileme bekledi\u011fi ve y\u00fczde 2 hedefine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in 2027 sonunu i\u015faret etti\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD’de a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00dcFE verisinin de enerji kaynakl\u0131 maliyetlerin hizmet kalemlerine s\u0131zmas\u0131 temas\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fi ifade edildi. Yar\u0131n saat 15.30’da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesinde \u00dcFE’nin man\u015fette ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,4 ile beklentiye paralel geldi\u011fi, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ise y\u00fczde 5,4 ile y\u00fczde 5,3’l\u00fck beklentinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak temmuzdaki y\u00fczde 4,8’in belirgin \u015fekilde yukar\u0131s\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek \u00dcFE’nin ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,2 ile y\u00fczde 0,3’l\u00fck beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE’nin ise y\u00fczde 4,3’ten y\u00fczde 4,6’ya y\u00fckseldi\u011fi belirtildi. K\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mda man\u015feti enerjinin ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00e7ekirdekte art\u0131\u015f\u0131n genele yay\u0131lmamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n enerji ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 baz\u0131 hizmet kalemleri ile sa\u011fl\u0131k ve hukuki hizmetlerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n as\u0131l odak noktas\u0131n\u0131n ise bu kalemlerin \u00e7ekirdek PCE’ye ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi oldu\u011fu ifade edildi. \u00c7ekirdek PCE’nin portf\u00f6y y\u00f6netimi, sa\u011fl\u0131k ve hava yolu bileti gibi \u00f6nemli bile\u015fenlerinin do\u011frudan \u00dcFE alt kalemlerinden t\u00fcretildi\u011fi, bu nedenle \u00dcFE ile PCE aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011f\u0131n \u00dcFE ile T\u00dcFE aras\u0131ndakinden \u00e7ok daha do\u011frudan oldu\u011fu kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Hizmet maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n genele yay\u0131lmamas\u0131n\u0131n umut verici oldu\u011fu, ancak y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n lojistik, depolama, ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k ve hava yolu ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi kalemlere do\u011frudan etki etmesinin endi\u015feleri yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Halihaz\u0131rda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,3 seviyesinde bulunan \u00e7ekirdek PCE’nin bu tabloyla kayda de\u011fer bir so\u011fuma g\u00f6stermesinin olduk\u00e7a zor g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Fiyatlaman\u0131n da bu y\u00f6nde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Ayl\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek verinin beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen y\u0131ll\u0131k serilerdeki h\u0131zlanma ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015fkenlik riskinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131, veri \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fczde 60 seviyelerinde seyreden Eyl\u00fcl FOMC faiz art\u0131r\u0131m fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 70’e y\u00fckseldi\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin y\u00fczde 4,90 ile Kas\u0131m 2023’ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131, dolar endeksinin ise g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip seviyesi 98,71’den 99,10 civar\u0131na toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 10 Eyl\u00fcl (Hibya) \u2013 Trive Yat\u0131r\u0131m, ECB’nin politika faizini beklentilere paralel olarak 25 baz puan art\u0131rmas\u0131 ve ABD’de \u00dcFE verilerinin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan EURUSD paritesinin iki z\u0131t y\u00f6nl\u00fc ak\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n etkisinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":147184,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4,1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-147183","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya","category-ekonomi","category-manset"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/147183","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=147183"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/147183\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/147184"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=147183"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=147183"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=147183"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"