Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, 2027-2029 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan Orta Vadeli Program\u2019\u0131 (OVP) de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Strateji ve B\u00fct\u00e7e Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan program, 6 Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019da Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rken ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn Resm\u00ee Gazete\u2019de yay\u0131mlanarak y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girdi.<\/p>\n
Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesine g\u00f6re OVP, k\u00fcresel ticaret ve enerji piyasalar\u0131nda jeopolitik belirsizliklerin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde haz\u0131rland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u015eubat 2026\u2019da ba\u015flayan ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n enerji piyasalar\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel ticaret \u00fczerindeki etkilerinin belirginle\u015fti\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekilen raporda, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tedarik \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecini sekteye u\u011fratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 daha ihtiyatl\u0131 para politikalar\u0131na y\u00f6neltti\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, dezenflasyon program\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle dengeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrecinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve makroekonomik istikrar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n raporunda en dikkat \u00e7ekici geli\u015fmenin 2027 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon hedefinin y\u00fczde 15\u2019ten y\u00fczde 21\u2019e y\u00fckseltilmesi oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
TCMB\u2019nin 13 A\u011fustos\u2019ta yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Enflasyon Raporu\u2019nda 2026 enflasyon tahmini y\u00fczde 26\u2019dan y\u00fczde 28\u2019e y\u00fckseltilirken, 2027 ve 2028 tahminleri s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 15 ve y\u00fczde 9 seviyelerinde korunmu\u015ftu. Yeni OVP ile birlikte 2027 hedefinin y\u00fczde 22-23 seviyesindeki piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fcne \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, 2027 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda bir projeksiyon beklediklerini ancak daha y\u00fcksek bir revizyon yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Raporda, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin piyasa beklentilerine daha fazla yak\u0131nsamay\u0131 tercih etti\u011fi de\u011ferlendirmesi yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon hedefinin y\u00fczde 21\u2019e y\u00fckseltilmesinin ilk bak\u0131\u015fta erken bir para politikas\u0131 gev\u015femesi beklentisi olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi belirtilirken, program\u0131n genel \u00e7er\u00e7evesinin b\u00f6yle bir sinyal vermedi\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Mevcut ekonomik kat\u0131l\u0131klar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 21\u2019lik hedefe ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n dahi s\u0131k\u0131 para ve maliye politikas\u0131 duru\u015funun devam\u0131n\u0131 gerektirece\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
2028 enflasyon hedefinin de y\u00fczde 8\u2019den y\u00fczde 13,5\u2019e y\u00fckseltildi\u011fi, tek haneli enflasyona d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f hedefinin ise 2029\u2019a ertelendi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
OVP\u2019de 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi y\u00fczde 3,8\u2019den y\u00fczde 3,3\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. Ancak Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, s\u00f6z konusu hedefin de mevcut veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda iddial\u0131 oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 2,5 seviyesinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekilen raporda, 2026 sonunda y\u00fczde 3,3\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ula\u015f\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 4 seviyesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme gerekti\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, mevcut veri seti dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu ivmenin yakalanmas\u0131n\u0131n zor g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve y\u0131l sonunda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
2027-2029 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefleri s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 4,2, y\u00fczde 4,6 ve y\u00fczde 5 olarak belirlendi. Raporda, se\u00e7imlere yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131k\u00e7a b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye verilen \u00f6nceli\u011fin korundu\u011fu ve OVP\u2019nin bu y\u00f6n\u00fcyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme hassasiyetini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, kamu maliyesi taraf\u0131nda da dikkat \u00e7ekici revizyonlar bulundu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
2026 b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 3,1\u2019e \u00e7ekilirken, y\u00fcksek enflasyonun vergi matrahlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n da bu revizyonda etkili oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
2027 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131\/GSYH hedefi ise y\u00fczde 3,1\u2019den y\u00fczde 3,5\u2019e y\u00fckseltildi. Raporda, ge\u00e7mi\u015f OVP\u2019lerin aksine bir sonraki y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyona gidilmesinin dikkat \u00e7ekici oldu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Mal ve hizmet al\u0131mlar\u0131 ile cari transferlerde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n di\u011fer harcama kalemlerinin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekildi. 2026\u2019dan 2027\u2019ye ge\u00e7erken mal ve hizmet al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1,8\u2019den y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye, cari transferlerin GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131n\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 8,3\u2019ten y\u00fczde 9,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn piyasalarda geni\u015flemeci maliye politikas\u0131 ve erken se\u00e7im beklentilerini besleyebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n
OVP\u2019de cari a\u00e7\u0131k projeksiyonlar\u0131nda da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
2026 i\u00e7in cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 1,3\u2019ten y\u00fczde 2,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseltilirken, cari a\u00e7\u0131k tahmini 47,5 milyar dolar olarak belirlendi.<\/p>\n
Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, revizyonun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde enerji ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ile cari i\u015flemler dengesi istatistiklerindeki metodolojik g\u00fcncellemeden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
2026 y\u0131l\u0131 enerji ithalat\u0131 tahmininin de 56,5 milyar dolardan 71 milyar dolara y\u00fckseltildi\u011fi kaydedildi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi ve finansman taraf\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir risk \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
OVP\u2019de dolar\/TL i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama kur varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 2026 i\u00e7in 46,87, 2027 i\u00e7in 56,05, 2028 i\u00e7in 63,69 ve 2029 i\u00e7in 68,83 olarak belirlendi.<\/p>\n
Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, kurdaki y\u0131ll\u0131k nominal de\u011fi\u015fim oranlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon patikas\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n program boyunca TL\u2019de reel de\u011ferlenme e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin hedeflendi\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
OVP projeksiyonlar\u0131na g\u00f6re 2029 y\u0131l\u0131nda GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 5, enflasyonun ise y\u00fczde 9 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi hedefleniyor.<\/p>\n
Programda 2029 i\u00e7in GSYH\u2019nin 2 trilyon 91 milyar dolar, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na GSYH\u2019nin ise 23 bin 419 dolar seviyesine ula\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130hracat\u0131n 2029\u2019da 302,5 milyar dolar, ithalat\u0131n 411 milyar dolar ve turizm gelirlerinin 73,5 milyar dolar olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ise 37 milyar dolar seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n 2029\u2019da y\u00fczde 7,8, istihdam seviyesinin 33 milyon 925 bin ki\u015fi ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 54 olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, yeni OVP\u2019nin genel \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde enflasyon hedeflerinin piyasa beklentilerine yakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflerinde iddial\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn korundu\u011funu ve kamu maliyesinde 2027 y\u0131l\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 revizyonunun \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 7 Eyl\u00fcl (Hibya) – Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, 2027-2029 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan Orta Vadeli Program\u2019\u0131 (OVP) de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":144642,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-144641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-ekonomi","category-manset"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/144641","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=144641"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/144641\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/144642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=144641"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=144641"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=144641"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"