A1 Capital\u2019in G\u00fcnl\u00fck B\u00fclteni\u2019nde, 2027-2029 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan yeni Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
Analizde, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin dezenflasyon politikas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7medi\u011fi ancak \u00f6nceki OVP\u2019deki enflasyon patikas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul ederek hedeflerin ileri bir tarihe \u00f6telendi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
A1 Capital, yeni OVP\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden ziyade enflasyon, cari denge ve sanayi \u00fcretimine ili\u015fkin varsay\u0131mlardaki de\u011fi\u015fimin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Analize g\u00f6re, \u00f6nceki OVP haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in Brent petrol fiyat\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131 64,3 dolar iken yeni programda bu rakam 89,3 dolara y\u00fckseltildi. Enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceki programda y\u00fczde 5,7 gerilemesi beklenirken yeni OVP\u2019de y\u00fczde 18,6 artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ticaret ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 2,4\u2019ten y\u00fczde 1,6\u2019ya, Avro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini ise y\u00fczde 1,2\u2019den y\u00fczde 0,9\u2019a \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin y\u00fczde 3,8\u2019den y\u00fczde 3,3\u2019e, sanayi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 4\u2019ten y\u00fczde 2,3\u2019e, y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahmininin y\u00fczde 16\u2019dan y\u00fczde 28,4\u2019e ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1,3\u2019ten y\u00fczde 2,6\u2019ya revize edilmesi \u015feklinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
A1 Capital, enflasyon tahminindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonun politika gev\u015femesi olarak de\u011fil, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n kabul edilmesi olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Analizde, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2026 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dikkat \u00e7ekilerek, s\u0131k\u0131 para ve maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7 talebi, zay\u0131f d\u0131\u015f talebin ise ihracat taraf\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Yeni OVP\u2019nin y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f ticaret \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 3,3\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kaydedildi. Programda 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine sermaye stokundan yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,1 puan, toplam fakt\u00f6r verimlili\u011finden ise 1,2 puan katk\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
A1 Capital, kendi de\u011ferlendirmesinde ise 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,8-3,2 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha makul buldu\u011funu bildirdi.<\/p>\n
A1 Capital, a\u011fustos itibar\u0131yla y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u00fczde 31,51 seviyesinde bulundu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatarak, y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 28,4 hedefinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin zor ancak imk\u00e2ns\u0131z olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Bu hedefin ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilmesi i\u00e7in y\u0131l\u0131n kalan\u0131nda enflasyonun ana e\u011filiminin yeniden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gelmesi, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fmesi, i\u00e7 talebin zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 ve hizmet enflasyonundaki kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
TCMB\u2019nin A\u011fustos Enflasyon Raporu\u2019ndaki y\u00fczde 28\u2019lik tahminine de dikkat \u00e7ekilen analizde, yeni OVP\u2019deki y\u00fczde 28,4\u2019l\u00fck hedefin Merkez Bankas\u0131 tahminiyle uyumlu oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
A1 Capital, y\u0131l sonu enflasyonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 29,5-30,5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha makul g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda sert y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fanmamas\u0131, kurda yeni bir \u015fok olu\u015fmamas\u0131 ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 halinde y\u00fczde 28,4 seviyesine ula\u015f\u0131labilece\u011fi, ancak enerji, g\u0131da veya kur kaynakl\u0131 yeni bir \u015fokun y\u0131l sonu enflasyonunu y\u00fczde 30\u2019un \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
Sanayi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in OVP\u2019de belirlenen y\u00fczde 2,3\u2019l\u00fck hedefin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekildi. Y\u00fcksek finansman maliyetleri, zay\u0131f ihracat pazarlar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin sanayi \u00fcretimini bask\u0131lamaya devam edebilece\u011fi belirtilerek, y\u00fczde 2-2,5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i oldu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Cari a\u00e7\u0131k tahmininin ise 47,5 milyar dolar ve GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 2,6\u2019s\u0131 seviyesinde bulundu\u011fu hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131. Petrol ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n OVP varsay\u0131mlar\u0131na yak\u0131n seyretmesi halinde bu hedefin makul oldu\u011fu, en \u00f6nemli riskin ise yine enerji fiyatlar\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
A1 Capital, OVP\u2019de resmi bir dolar\/TL hedefi bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, programda dalgal\u0131 kur rejiminin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011finin ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kurun piyasa arz ve talebiyle olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirtildi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte programdaki TL ve dolar bazl\u0131 GSYH rakamlar\u0131ndan hareketle \u00f6rt\u00fck y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama dolar\/TL varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n hesaplanabilece\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Buna g\u00f6re 2026 i\u00e7in 85,346 trilyon TL ve 1,821 trilyon dolarl\u0131k nominal GSYH rakamlar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 46,87 dolar\/TL, 2027 i\u00e7in 111,207 trilyon TL ve 1,984 trilyon dolarl\u0131k GSYH rakamlar\u0131 ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 56,05 dolar\/TL \u00f6rt\u00fck ortalama kur varsay\u0131m\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Analizde, \u00f6nceki OVP\u2019de 2027 i\u00e7in \u00f6rt\u00fck ortalama kurun 50,71 TL oldu\u011fu hat\u0131rlat\u0131larak yeni program\u0131n 2027 ortalama kur varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 10,5 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
2026 ortalamas\u0131 olan 46,87\u2019den 2027 ortalamas\u0131 56,05\u2019e ge\u00e7i\u015fin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 19,6 nominal TL de\u011fer kayb\u0131 anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fi, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 2027 GSYH deflat\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00fczde 25 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade edildi. A1 Capital, bunun TL\u2019de tamamen serbest bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan ziyade enflasyonun alt\u0131nda nominal kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n devam etti\u011fi kontroll\u00fc bir reel de\u011ferlenme patikas\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Analizde, yeni OVP\u2019nin en dikkat \u00e7ekici de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinden birinin sanayi ve \u00fcretim taraf\u0131nda oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nceki yakla\u015f\u0131mda dezenflasyon i\u00e7in a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n talebin so\u011futulmas\u0131na verildi\u011fi, yeni programda ise y\u00fcksek faiz, zay\u0131f d\u0131\u015f talep ve y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin uzun s\u00fcre devam etmesi halinde \u00fcretim kapasitesinin zarar g\u00f6rebilece\u011finin kabul edildi\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
OVP\u2019de finansman, talep ve maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131 kapasite kay\u0131plar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesinin \u00f6nlenmesinin\u201d \u00f6zellikle vurguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Bu kapsamda \u00fcretim ve ihracata ba\u011fl\u0131 finansman kanallar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, krediye eri\u015fimin kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, teminat sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n hafifletilmesi, emek yo\u011fun sekt\u00f6rlere se\u00e7ici destek verilmesi ve KOB\u0130 desteklerinin geni\u015fletilmesinin planland\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
A1 Capital, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin genel para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutarken yat\u0131r\u0131m, \u00fcretim ve ihracata y\u00f6nelik se\u00e7ici kredi kanallar\u0131 a\u00e7ma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6neldi\u011fini de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede 2027’de ihracat\u00e7\u0131 sanayi, y\u00fcksek katma de\u011ferli \u00fcretim, enerji verimlili\u011fi, teknoloji, otomasyon, savunma, yar\u0131 iletken, yapay zek\u00e2, enerji depolama ve ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
A1 Capital, 2027 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6zel t\u00fcketimin y\u00fczde 4,2, toplam yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n y\u00fczde 4 ve kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 6,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin, ekonominin ise y\u00fczde 4,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin hedeflendi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde enflasyonun y\u00fczde 28,4\u2019ten y\u00fczde 21\u2019e indirilmesinin hedeflendi\u011fi belirtilerek, 2027\u2019nin temel sorusunun b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yeniden kredi ve t\u00fcketim kaynakl\u0131 hale gelip gelmeyece\u011fi oldu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Analizde, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin kredi ve t\u00fcketim a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 halinde y\u00fczde 21 enflasyon hedefinin zorla\u015fabilece\u011fi, \u00fcretim kapasitesi, ihracat ve verimlilik kaynakl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve dezenflasyonun ayn\u0131 anda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesine imk\u00e2n sa\u011flayabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
Yeni OVP\u2019nin TCMB\u2019ye tek ba\u015f\u0131na faiz indirimi alan\u0131 a\u00e7mad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilen analizde, 2026 enflasyon tahmininin y\u00fczde 16\u2019dan y\u00fczde 28,4\u2019e y\u00fckseltilmesinin \u201cfaiz indirilebilir\u201d mesaj\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Aksine, yeni program\u0131n maliye ve para politikas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ger\u00e7eklik fark\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
2027 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in OVP\u2019nin y\u00fczde 21, TCMB\u2019nin ise y\u00fczde 15 enflasyon patikas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dikkat \u00e7ekilerek, TCMB\u2019nin faiz indirimlerinde kendi y\u00fczde 15\u2019lik dezenflasyon patikas\u0131n\u0131 dikkate almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
A1 Capital, OVP\u2019nin faiz indirimi i\u00e7in siyasi veya teknik bir \u201cizin belgesi\u201d olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, faiz indirim alan\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ayl\u0131k enflasyon, enflasyonun ana e\u011filimi, beklentiler, i\u00e7 talep ve kur istikrar\u0131n\u0131n belirleyece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
A1 Capital, haftan\u0131n k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki \u00f6nemli risklerinden birinin petrol fiyatlar\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n enerji ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan gemileri kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 hedef almas\u0131n\u0131n Brent petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 97 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Analizde, petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun Fed, ECB ve BoJ\u2019un para politikalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisinin piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekti\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
A1 Capital ayr\u0131ca ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in, \u0130ran ile ya\u015fanan gerilimin sona ermesi halinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 40 dolara kadar gerileyebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki de\u011ferlendirmesine yer verdi. Goldman Sachs\u2019\u0131n ise Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da gemilere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n artmas\u0131 halinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 120 dolara kadar \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
A1 Capital, T\u00fcrkiye piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n yeni haftaya cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 BIST toparlanmas\u0131 ve yeni OVP ile ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Analize g\u00f6re OVP\u2019nin 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131, enflasyon tahminini yukar\u0131 revize etmesi daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir makro \u00e7er\u00e7eve ortaya koyarken, TCMB\u2019ye hemen ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir faiz indirimi alan\u0131 a\u00e7m\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
A1 Capital, yeni OVP\u2019nin genel olarak \u201cdaha uzun dezenflasyon, daha kontroll\u00fc faiz indirimi ve \u00fcretime se\u00e7ici destek\u201d modeline i\u015faret etti\u011fini de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Analizin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan sorusu ise 2027\u2019de enflasyonun OVP\u2019deki y\u00fczde 21 hedefe mi yoksa TCMB\u2019nin y\u00fczde 15 patikas\u0131na m\u0131 yakla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 7 Eyl\u00fcl (Hibya) – A1 Capital\u2019in G\u00fcnl\u00fck B\u00fclteni\u2019nde, 2027-2029 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan yeni Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":144606,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-144605","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-ekonomi","category-manset"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/144605","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=144605"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/144605\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/144606"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=144605"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=144605"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=144605"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"