Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m'\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesinde,\u00a0GSYH'n\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7eyreksel bazda y\u00fczde 1,1, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi.\u00a0T\u00dc\u0130K 2025\u2019in 3. \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin y\u0131ll\u0131k GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 4,2\u2019lik medyan piyasa beklentisi ve bizim y\u00fczde 3,9\u2019luk tahminimizin biraz alt\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3,7 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131l\u0131rken \u015fu bilgiler verildi:<\/p>\n
“Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH ise \u00e7eyreksel bazda y\u00fczde 1,1 art\u0131\u015f kaydederek b\u00fcy\u00fcme momentumunun devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi (1\u00c725: y\u00fczde 0,8, 2\u00c725: y\u00fczde 1,6). Bu arada, daha \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 2,3 ve y\u00fczde 4,8 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan ilk 2 \u00e7eyre\u011fin b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 2,5 ve y\u00fczde 4,9 olarak g\u00fcncellendi. Son rakamlarla birlikte, 9-ayl\u0131k GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 3,7, son 12 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nem GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ise y\u00fczde 3,6 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalsa da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketim e\u011filimi devam etmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. y\u00fczde 3,7\u2019lik GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 3,9\u2019luk tahminimizin hafif alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse de, \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 4,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle beklentimizden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz; biz burada y\u00fczde 3,5-4,0 civar\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f beklentisindeydik. Buna g\u00f6re, \u00f6zel t\u00fcketimin man\u015fet b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,2 puan oldu. \u00d6zel t\u00fcketim harcamas\u0131 2. \u00e7eyrekte de y\u00fczde 4,4\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle (y\u00fczde 5,1\u2019den revize edildi) man\u015fet b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00fczde 3,0\u2019l\u00fck katk\u0131 vermi\u015fti. Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f seriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da, \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re kaydedilen y\u00fczde 2,1\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n TCMB\u2019nin i\u00e7 talepte dengelenme s\u00f6ylemiyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Olumlu tarafta, yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 11,7\u2019lik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin man\u015fet b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00fczde 2,8\u2019lik katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Buradaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, in\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 13,3, makine-te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 11,3, di\u011fer aktifler kaleminde ise y\u00fczde 5,3\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Kamunun t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,8 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 kamuda tasarruf e\u011filiminin \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re zay\u0131flasa da devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu kalemleri toplad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine i\u00e7 talep katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 6,1\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Y\u0131ll\u0131k ithalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 2. \u00e7eyrekteki y\u00fczde 8,9\u2019dan y\u00fczde 4,3\u2019e gerilese de, ihracat\u0131n da y\u00fczde 2,0 art\u0131\u015ftan y\u00fczde 0,7\u2019lik daralmaya ge\u00e7mesi nedeniyle, net d\u0131\u015f talebin man\u015fet b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden y\u00fczde 1,0 puan \u00e7ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (2\u00c725: -y\u00fczde 1,3 puan) hesapl\u0131yoruz. Son olarak, bu rakamlar stok birikimi kaleminin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye etkisinin y\u00fczde 1,5 puanla negatife d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00dcretim taraf\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, in\u015faat ve hizmet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc korurken, tar\u0131msal \u00fcretimdeki daralma dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. \u00dcretim taraf\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 3.\u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019si i\u00e7inde y\u00fczde 10\u2019dan fazla paya sahip olan tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 12,7\u2019lik daralma dikkat \u00e7ekiyor, ki bu tar\u0131msal \u00fcretimdeki daralman\u0131n man\u015fet b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi kabaca y\u00fczde 1,3 puan kadar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Y\u0131l i\u00e7inde ya\u015fanan zirai don ve kurakl\u0131k etkisini ve Tar\u0131m Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tar\u0131msal \u00fcretim tahminlerini baz alarak, tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde bir daralma bekliyor olsak da, biz bu daralman\u0131n y\u00fczde 5,5-6,0 civarlar\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorduk. Tar\u0131msal \u00fcretimdeki bu daralman\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da enflasyonundaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi de k\u0131smen a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc beklentimizden zay\u0131f ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerinin beklentilerimizden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Ticaret, ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve turizm sekt\u00f6rlerini kapsayan ve GSYH\u2019nin kabaca d\u00f6rtte birini olu\u015fturan olu\u015fan \u201chizmetler\u201d kaleminde y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 6,3 olurken, di\u011fer hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerinden y\u00fczde 10,1 ve y\u00fczde 10,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcme performanslar\u0131yla bilgi-ileti\u015fim ile finans ve sigorta hizmetleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc deprem harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n da yard\u0131m\u0131yla y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 13,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor, ki bu rakam\u0131n beklentimizin hafif \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Son olarak, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc de y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 6,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, bu performans\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck baz etkisi kaynakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 3,5\u2019in hafif \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir. 3.\u00e7eyrekteki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketim e\u011filimi, TCMB\u2019nin i\u00e7 talepte belirgin yava\u015flama s\u00f6ylemiyle pek uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcnmese de, piyasan\u0131n Kas\u0131m enflasyonuna y\u00f6nelik \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 beklentisi nedeniyle faiz indirim beklentilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesini beklemiyoruz, ki Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019daki \u00f6zellikle Bankac\u0131l\u0131k endeksindeki pozitif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de bunu teyit ediyor. Son olarak, mevcut e\u011filimler GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin son \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 3,5 civar\u0131nda, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 genelinde de y\u00fczde 3,5\u2019in hafif \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.”<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 1 Aral\u0131k (Hibya) – Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m, GSYH’n\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7eyreksel bazda y\u00fczde 1,1, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13960","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor","category-dunya","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13960","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13960"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13960\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13960"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13960"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13960"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nSANAY\u0130 HABER AJANSI <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"