Trive Yat\u0131r\u0131m taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan de\u011ferlendirmede, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta ABD\u2019nin federal borcunun tarihte ilk kez 40 trilyon dolar seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, bozulan enflasyon beklentileriyle uzun vadeli ABD Hazine tahvillerinde olu\u015fan arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek getirileri 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
De\u011ferlendirmede, normal \u015fartlarda nominal tahvil getirileri ile ons alt\u0131n aras\u0131nda ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir ili\u015fki bulundu\u011fu, getirilerin y\u00fckselmesinin getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131rarak de\u011ferli metali bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Ancak mevcut d\u00f6ng\u00fcde bu ili\u015fkinin tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve hem tahvil getirilerinin hem de alt\u0131n\u0131n e\u015f zamanl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Bu durumun temel nedeninin, ABD Hazine tahvillerine y\u00f6nelik ilginin \u00fclkenin mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin derinle\u015fen endi\u015felerle azalmas\u0131 oldu\u011fu ifade edilen de\u011ferlendirmede, piyasalar\u0131n artan getirileri b\u00fcy\u00fcme veya s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali olarak de\u011fil, bor\u00e7 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi ve tahvil arz fazlas\u0131na ili\u015fkin risk primi olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Trive Yat\u0131r\u0131m, bu ortamda alt\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle Asya \u00fclkeleri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yap\u0131sal destekle tahvillerin yerini alan alternatif bir g\u00fcvenli liman konumuna ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4 bin dolar seviyelerinde uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 band\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karak yeniden g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
De\u011ferlendirmede, ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Bessent\u2019in ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta uzun vadeli tahvillerde geri al\u0131m operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 en az iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karacaklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan tahvil getirilerinde ilk etapta gerileme ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ancak getirilerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin temel nedenlerinin devam etmesi nedeniyle bu etkinin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Nominal getirilerde y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi s\u00fcrerken enflasyon beklentilerine endeksli reel getirilerde y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirten Trive Yat\u0131r\u0131m, bunun alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi. Metalin klasik reel getiri kanal\u0131yla hareket etti\u011fi, nominal getiri-alt\u0131n ili\u015fkisinin ise mali endi\u015feler nedeniyle ge\u00e7ici olarak ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Reel getirilerdeki gerilemenin, enflasyon beklentilerinin tahvil getirilerindeki art\u0131\u015ftan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bozuldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ons alt\u0131n\u0131n may\u0131s ay\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerinde seyretti\u011fini belirten Trive Yat\u0131r\u0131m, 4 bin 570 dolar \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece de\u011ferli metalde pozitif e\u011filimin korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
De\u011ferlendirmede, ABD-\u0130ran ili\u015fkilerindeki gerilimin son g\u00fcnlerde artmas\u0131 ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretmesinin enflasyon beklentileriyle birlikte g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131rabilece\u011fi belirtildi. Tahvil piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n, Fed\u2019in ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 zaten sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gerek\u00e7esiyle faizlerin sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 halen ana senaryo olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Trive Yat\u0131r\u0131m, \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyredecek PCE ve T\u00dcFE verileri ile g\u00fcvercin bir Fed tonunun ons alt\u0131nda 4 bin 770-4 bin 890 dolar band\u0131n\u0131 hedef konumuna getirebilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte Jackson Hole Sempozyumu\u2019nun ikinci g\u00fcn\u00fcnde konu\u015facak Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n piyasalar\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadeledeki kararl\u0131l\u0131k konusunda yeniden ikna etmesi halinde farkl\u0131 bir senaryonun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi ifade edildi. Bu durumda k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fckselirken uzun vadeli getirilerin gerileyebilece\u011fi ve getiri e\u011frisinin d\u00fczle\u015febilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Bu senaryoda ons alt\u0131n\u0131n, sava\u015f\u0131n devam etmesine ra\u011fmen a\u011fustos \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00f6nemde oldu\u011fu gibi yeniden bask\u0131 alt\u0131na girebilece\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Trive Yat\u0131r\u0131m, 4 bin 570 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkan fiyatlamalar\u0131n 4 bin 330-4 bin dolar band\u0131n\u0131 yeniden m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131labilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 24 A\u011fustos (Hibya) – Trive Yat\u0131r\u0131m, ABD\u2019nin mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin tahvil getirileri ile ons alt\u0131n aras\u0131ndaki geleneksel ili\u015fkiyi bozdu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":137689,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-137688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-ekonomi","category-manset"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/137688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=137688"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/137688\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/137689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=137688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=137688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=137688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"