Alnus Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesine g\u00f6re,T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 Temmuz d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi\u2019nde enflasyon, d\u00f6viz kuru ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k beklentilerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonlar dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, y\u0131l sonu enflasyon ve dolar\/TL beklentilerini y\u00fckseltirken, b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ankette cari ay olan Temmuz i\u00e7in ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE beklentisi y\u00fczde 1,67 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. 2026 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisi ise bir \u00f6nceki anketteki y\u00fczde 29,21 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 29,43\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
2027 y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE beklentisi de y\u00fczde 21,47\u2019den y\u00fczde 21,94\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. 12 ay sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 23,69 seviyesinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Alnus Yat\u0131r\u0131m, A\u011fustos ay\u0131 enflasyonu i\u00e7in \u015fu a\u015famada y\u00fczde 1,20-1,40 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda beklenti ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Kurum, Temmuz ay\u0131ndan gelen petrol fiyat\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131n motorine yap\u0131lan \u00d6TV art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ve temel mal fiyatlar\u0131ndaki yava\u015flaman\u0131n enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n dolar\/TL beklentilerinde de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Ankete g\u00f6re;<\/p>\n
A\u011fustos ay\u0131 sonu dolar\/TL beklentisi: 48,1893<\/p>\n
2026 y\u0131l sonu dolar\/TL beklentisi: 51,6567<\/p>\n
12 ay sonras\u0131 dolar\/TL beklentisi: 57,4278<\/p>\n
olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6ylece y\u0131l sonu kur beklentisi \u00f6nceki anketteki seviyesine k\u0131yasla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellenirken, 12 ay sonras\u0131 kur beklentisi de 57,43 TL seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Cari i\u015flemler dengesi taraf\u0131nda da beklentilerde bozulma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, 2026 y\u0131l sonu cari a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisini 49,3 milyar dolardan 50,2 milyar dolara y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
2027 y\u0131l\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisi ise 43,3 milyar dolardan 44,4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alnus Yat\u0131r\u0131m, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 34,5 milyar dolar seviyesinde bulunan cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda turizm gelirlerinin sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 katk\u0131yla birlikte 47-50 milyar dolar band\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ankette 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 3,1 seviyesinde korunurken, 2027 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 4,1\u2019den y\u00fczde 4,0\u2019e indirildi.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6ylece piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinde de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmazken, gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
TCMB\u2019nin son Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini y\u00fczde 37 seviyesinde sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n faiz beklentileri de ankette yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Buna g\u00f6re piyasa;<\/p>\n
10 Eyl\u00fcl PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda: faiz de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi beklemiyor.<\/p>\n
22 Ekim PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda: yakla\u015f\u0131k 90 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
10 Aral\u0131k PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda: yakla\u015f\u0131k 75 baz puanl\u0131k indirim bekliyor.<\/p>\n
2026 y\u0131l sonunda: politika faizinin y\u00fczde 35,25 seviyesinde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ankette y\u0131l sonu politika faizi beklentisinin \u00f6nceki y\u00fczde 34,70 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 35,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltilmesi dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Alnus Yat\u0131r\u0131m, TCMB\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini, Ekim ve Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda ise toplam 200 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi yap\u0131labilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc korudu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Kurum, bu beklenti do\u011frultusunda y\u0131l sonunda politika faizinin y\u00fczde 35 seviyesine gerilemesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak Alnus Yat\u0131r\u0131m, enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k kaynakl\u0131 risklerin artmas\u0131, bunun kur ve kur \u00fczerinden enflasyona ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi art\u0131rmas\u0131 durumunda faiz indirimi beklentilerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131<\/p>\n
Piyasa anketinde enflasyon, dolar\/TL ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k beklentilerinin y\u00fckselmesi, piyasan\u0131n dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecine ili\u015fkin temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyarken; b\u00fcy\u00fcme taraf\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yava\u015flama beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Faiz indirimi beklentileri ise korunmakla birlikte, y\u0131l sonu politika faizi tahminindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon para politikas\u0131nda daha ihtiyatl\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 14 A\u011fustos (Hibya) – Alnus Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesine g\u00f6re,T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 Temmuz d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi\u2019nde enflasyon, d\u00f6viz kuru ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k beklentilerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonlar dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":132384,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-132383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-ekonomi","category-manset"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/132383","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=132383"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/132383\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/132384"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=132383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=132383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=132383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"