{"id":126716,"date":"2026-08-04T14:45:18","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T11:45:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/2026\/08\/04\/temmuz-enflasyonu-beklentilerin-altinda-gerceklesti-gozler-tcmbnin-enflasyon-raporunda"},"modified":"2026-08-04T14:45:18","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T11:45:18","slug":"temmuz-enflasyonu-beklentilerin-altinda-gerceklesti-gozler-tcmbnin-enflasyon-raporunda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/2026\/08\/04\/temmuz-enflasyonu-beklentilerin-altinda-gerceklesti-gozler-tcmbnin-enflasyon-raporunda\/","title":{"rendered":"Temmuz enflasyonu beklentilerin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti, g\u00f6zler TCMB&#8217;nin Enflasyon Raporu&#8217;nda"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bizim Menkul De\u011ferler (BMD) Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, Temmuz 2026 enflasyon verilerine ili\u015fkin yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 analizde, t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksinin (T\u00dcFE) piyasa beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,78 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun ise Haziran ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 32,11 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 31,75&#8217;e geriledi\u011fini de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Raporda, Temmuz ay\u0131nda sa\u011fl\u0131k, ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve konut kalemlerinin enflasyon \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fu, giyim ve ayakkab\u0131 grubunun ise sezon indirimleri sayesinde ayl\u0131k enflasyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken tek ana harcama grubu oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n<p>BMD analizine g\u00f6re ana harcama gruplar\u0131 i\u00e7inde sa\u011fl\u0131k, muayene kat\u0131l\u0131m paylar\u0131na yap\u0131lan art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkisiyle ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 10,74 ile en fazla fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 grup oldu ve ayl\u0131k enflasyona 32 baz puan katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Ula\u015ft\u0131rma grubu ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,59 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterirken, 44 baz puanl\u0131k katk\u0131yla ayl\u0131k enflasyona en fazla katk\u0131y\u0131 veren ana harcama grubu olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Sezon indirimlerinin etkili oldu\u011fu giyim ve ayakkab\u0131 grubunda ise fiyatlar ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3,93 geriledi. Bu geli\u015fme ayl\u0131k enflasyonu 28 baz puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n<p>Raporda, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 13 ana harcama grubunun tamam\u0131nda fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda;<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fitim y\u00fczde 44,18 ile en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc grup olurken y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyona 98 baz puan katk\u0131 verdi.<\/p>\n<p>Sa\u011fl\u0131k y\u00fczde 43,89 ile ikinci s\u0131rada yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyon sepetinde en y\u00fcksek a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011fa sahip g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler grubunda y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 37,53 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu grup y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyona 894 baz puan ile en y\u00fcksek katk\u0131y\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Konut grubunda y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 40,32, ula\u015ft\u0131rmada y\u00fczde 30,83, lokanta ve otellerde ise y\u00fczde 31,65 oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Analizde, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n (TCMB) Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyerek y\u00fczde 37,00 seviyesinde sabit b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>BMD, muayene kat\u0131l\u0131m paylar\u0131 ile k\u00f6pr\u00fc ve otoyol ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccretlerindeki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n Temmuz ay\u0131nda enflasyonu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini belirterek, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeye yer verdi:<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Muayene kat\u0131l\u0131m paylar\u0131 ile k\u00f6pr\u00fc ve otoyol ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccretlerindeki art\u0131\u015f ayl\u0131k enflasyonu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerken A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda yenilenecek kira s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmaya devam edebilir. Ayr\u0131ca TCMB&#8217;nin 13 A\u011fustos&#8217;ta yay\u0131mlayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc Enflasyon Raporu enflasyona ili\u015fkin beklentiler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Raporda yer alan verilere g\u00f6re, Yurt \u0130\u00e7i \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (Y\u0130-\u00dcFE) Temmuz ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,52 artt\u0131. Haziran ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 28,09 olan \u00fcretici enflasyonu ise Temmuz ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 27,83 seviyesine geriledi.<\/p>\n<p>Sanayinin ana sekt\u00f6rleri incelendi\u011finde:<\/p>\n<p>Elektrik, gaz ve buhar sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 9,65 ile en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n<p>En y\u00fcksek a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011fa sahip imalat sanayi ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,06 artarak Y\u0130-\u00dcFE&#8217;ye 91 baz puan ile en y\u00fcksek katk\u0131y\u0131 verdi.<\/p>\n<p>Madencilik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 4,22 gerileyen tek ana sekt\u00f6r oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ise madencilik y\u00fczde 41,81 ile en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaydederken, imalat sanayi y\u00fczde 28,96 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi ve y\u0131ll\u0131k Y\u0130-\u00dcFE&#8217;ye 2.491 baz puan katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Alt sekt\u00f6rlerde ayl\u0131k bazda i\u00e7ecekler y\u00fczde 7,35 ile en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, ham petrol ve do\u011falgaz y\u00fczde 12,75 gerileyerek en fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fayan alt sekt\u00f6r oldu. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ise ham petrol ve do\u011falgaz y\u00fczde 79,94 ile en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n<p>BMD&#8217;nin de\u011ferlendirmesine g\u00f6re, TCMB&#8217;nin yak\u0131ndan takip etti\u011fi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinde de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>B endeksi (i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da, enerji, alkoll\u00fc i\u00e7kiler ve t\u00fct\u00fcn ile alt\u0131n hari\u00e7 T\u00dcFE) ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,66, y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 30,98 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>C endeksi (enerji, g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler, alkoll\u00fc i\u00e7kiler ile t\u00fct\u00fcn ve alt\u0131n hari\u00e7 T\u00dcFE) ise ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,80, y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 29,91 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n<p>BMD analizinde, 2006-2026 d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin uzun vadeli enflasyon verilerine de yer verildi.<\/p>\n<p>Buna g\u00f6re;<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE&#8217;nin 2006-2026 ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 19,65 olurken, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye Mart 2011&#8217;de y\u00fczde 3,99, en y\u00fcksek seviye ise Ekim 2022&#8217;de y\u00fczde 85,51 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0130-\u00dcFE&#8217;nin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 22,38 olurken, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye Temmuz 2009&#8217;da eksi y\u00fczde 3,75, en y\u00fcksek seviye ise Ekim 2022&#8217;de y\u00fczde 157,69 olarak kaydedildi.<\/p>\n<p>Raporda ayr\u0131ca son y\u0131llarda asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n uzun d\u00f6nem ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi belirtilerek, \u00f6zellikle 2022-2026 d\u00f6nemindeki art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131n\u0131n, son 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k bile\u015fik ortalama olan y\u00fczde 21,64&#8217;\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n<p> <strong><\/strong><br \/>\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130stanbul, 4 A\u011fustos (Hibya) \u2013 Bizim Menkul De\u011ferler (BMD) Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, Temmuz 2026 enflasyon verilerine ili\u015fkin yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 analizde, t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksinin (T\u00dcFE) piyasa beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,78 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun ise Haziran ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 32,11 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 31,75&#8217;e geriledi\u011fini de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":126717,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-126716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-ekonomi","category-manset"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126716","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=126716"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126716\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/126717"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=126716"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=126716"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=126716"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}