Trive Yat\u0131r\u0131m taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan g\u00fcnl\u00fck piyasa b\u00fclteninde, \u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131nda artan gerilim ve diplomasi trafi\u011finin k\u00fcresel piyasalarda belirleyici oldu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131. B\u00fcltende ayr\u0131ca petrol, alt\u0131n, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 ile T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin dikkat \u00e7eken de\u011ferlendirmelere yer verildi.<\/p>\n
Trive Yat\u0131r\u0131m’\u0131n analizinde, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik sert s\u00f6ylemlerinin ard\u0131ndan ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki ticari gemilere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131 kapasitesini zay\u0131flatmay\u0131 hedefleyen yeni bir sald\u0131r\u0131 dalgas\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn Husilerin de Suudi Arabistan’a deniz ablukas\u0131 ilan etti\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131rken, Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k on g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir ate\u015fkes ihtimalinin g\u00fcndeme gelmesinin piyasalara daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcltende, Brent petrol\u00fcn H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’na y\u00f6nelik risklerin etkisiyle 91,42 dolara kadar y\u00fckseldi\u011fi, ancak \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc’n\u00fcn m\u00fczakere mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 87,96 dolara geriledi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. WTI petrol\u00fcn ise 81,99 dolar seviyesine indi\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Analizde, Goldman Sachs’\u0131n petrol piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin iki farkl\u0131 senaryo ortaya koydu\u011fu belirtilerek, ana senaryoda Brent petrol\u00fcn 2026 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde 80 dolar, 2027 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise 75 dolar seviyesinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade edildi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir aksama ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde Brent petrol\u00fcn 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirmesine yer verildi. Bankan\u0131n ayr\u0131ca Orta Do\u011fu ve Rusya kaynakl\u0131 risklere kar\u015f\u0131 Aral\u0131k 2026-Mart 2027 vadeli Avrupa dizel kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon \u00f6nerdi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Trive Yat\u0131r\u0131m b\u00fclteninde, ABD’de al\u00fcminyum \u00fcretimini te\u015fvik etmeye y\u00f6nelik yeni ad\u0131mlar\u0131n da de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fi belirtildi. Buna g\u00f6re Trump’\u0131n, yurt i\u00e7inde izabe tesisi kuran veya kapasitesini art\u0131ran \u015firketlere ithalatta indirimli g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi sa\u011flayacak bir ba\u015fkanl\u0131k bildirisi imzalad\u0131\u011f\u0131, taahh\u00fctlerini yerine getirmeyen \u015firketlerin ise bu avantaj\u0131 kaybedebilece\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan Trump’\u0131n Kanada men\u015feli otomobil, alkoll\u00fc i\u00e7ki ve s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00fcr\u00fcnlere y\u00fczde 50 ek g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren \u00fc\u00e7 ayr\u0131 bildiriye imza att\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Enerji, potas ve kritik minerallerin uygulama d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tutuldu\u011fu, yeni tarifelerin 19 A\u011fustos’ta y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girece\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs’\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik de\u011ferlendirmelerine de yer verilen b\u00fcltende, T\u00fcrkiye’nin reel ihracat\u0131n\u0131n 2022-2024 d\u00f6neminde duraklad\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2025’in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren ise gerileme e\u011filimine girdi\u011fi ifade edildi. Pazar pay\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle \u00c7in’e kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u0131l sonunda Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la’n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3,5’ine, yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 milyar dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (TCMB) Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na da de\u011finilen analizde, y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisinin y\u00fczde 29,21’e, 12 ay sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentisinin ise y\u00fczde 23,95’e y\u00fckseldi\u011fi belirtildi. Dolar\/TL beklentisinin y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in 51,55, 12 ay sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in ise 56,69 TL seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edilirken, temmuz ay\u0131nda politika faizinin y\u00fczde 37 seviyesinde sabit kalmas\u0131n\u0131n, y\u0131l sonunda ise y\u00fczde 34,70’e gerilemesinin beklendi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs’\u0131n T\u00fcrk liras\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesine de yer verilen b\u00fcltende, T\u00fcrkiye’nin d\u0131\u015f dengeyi \u00f6nceliklendirmesi halinde TL’nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 20’li seviyelerin ortas\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetmesine izin verilebilece\u011fi ifade edildi. Bu senaryoda faizlerin piyasa beklentilerinden daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kalmas\u0131n\u0131n gerekebilece\u011fi belirtilirken, TL’nin y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 9 de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi, haziran ay\u0131 enflasyonunun ise y\u00fczde 32,1 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasa g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin teknik de\u011ferlendirmelerde ise EUR\/USD paritesinin 1,1418 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, 1,1425 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u0131sa vadede geri \u00e7ekilme e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn negatif oldu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ons alt\u0131n\u0131n sabah saatlerinde y\u00fczde 1’in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseli\u015fle 4.064 dolar seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtilirken, 4.058 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flanmas\u0131 halinde k\u0131sa vadede 4.120 dolar seviyesine kadar y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelinin devam edebilece\u011fi ifade edildi. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn pozitif oldu\u011fu kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn ise 86,87 dolar seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtilen de\u011ferlendirmede, 90 dolar direnci hen\u00fcz a\u015f\u0131lamam\u0131\u015f olsa da 85,14 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Nasdaq 100 vadeli endeksinin sabah saatlerinde 28.920 puan seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtilirken, 29.052 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u0131sa vadede zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn devam edebilece\u011fi ve teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn negatif oldu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 21 Temmuz (Hibya) – Trive Yat\u0131r\u0131m, \u0130ran-ABD gerilimi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131, TCMB beklentileri ve k\u00fcresel piyasalara ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerini payla\u015f\u0131rken, jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin fiyatlamalar \u00fczerindeki etkisinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":118317,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-118316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118316\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/118317"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"