{"id":117754,"date":"2026-07-20T11:00:19","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T08:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/2026\/07\/20\/tcmb-anketi-yil-sonu-enflasyon-beklentisinde-sinirli-artisa-isaret-etti"},"modified":"2026-07-20T11:00:19","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T08:00:19","slug":"tcmb-anketi-yil-sonu-enflasyon-beklentisinde-sinirli-artisa-isaret-etti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/2026\/07\/20\/tcmb-anketi-yil-sonu-enflasyon-beklentisinde-sinirli-artisa-isaret-etti\/","title":{"rendered":"TCMB anketi y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u015eirketin analizine g\u00f6re, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 2026 y\u0131l sonu t\u00fcketici enflasyonu (T\u00dcFE) beklentisi bir \u00f6nceki anketteki y\u00fczde 29,14 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 29,21’e y\u00fckseldi. 2027 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 21,39’dan y\u00fczde 21,47’ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Temmuz ay\u0131 ayl\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 1,68 olarak kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

Dolar\/TL beklentilerine ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmede, cari ay sonu kur tahmininin 47,3876 TL, 2026 y\u0131l sonu beklentisinin 51,5537 TL ve 12 ay sonras\u0131 beklentisinin ise 56,6920 TL oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Cari i\u015flemler dengesi beklentisinde ise 2026 y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131k tahmini 49,2 milyar dolardan 49,3 milyar dolara revize edilirken, 2027 y\u0131l sonu cari a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisi 43,3 milyar dolar olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerine ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmede, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin y\u00fczde 3,2’den y\u00fczde 3,1’e indirildi\u011fi, 2027 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinin ise y\u00fczde 4,1 seviyesinde korundu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n

Alnus Yat\u0131r\u0131m, ankette yer alan politika faizi beklentilerine g\u00f6re piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n temmuz ay\u0131ndaki Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin sabit tutulmas\u0131n\u0131, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 baz puan, ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ise 100 baz puan\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc aktard\u0131. Ankette y\u0131l sonu politika faizi beklentisi y\u00fczde 34,70 olarak yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u015eirket de\u011ferlendirmesinde, temmuz ay\u0131 enflasyon beklentisinin petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesi ve mevsimsel fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nedeniyle iyimser kalma riski ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, cari a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde turizm gelirlerinin belirleyici olmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n

Alnus Yat\u0131r\u0131m ayr\u0131ca, mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde TCMB’nin temmuz ve eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 PPK toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda politika faizini sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n son iki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ise toplam 200 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimiyle y\u0131l sonu politika faizinin y\u00fczde 35 seviyesine gerilemesini bekledi\u011fini bildirdi. De\u011ferlendirmede, enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k kaynakl\u0131 risklerin artmas\u0131 halinde faiz indirimi beklentilerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilebilece\u011fi de kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

<\/strong>
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130stanbul, 20 Temmuz (Hibya) – Alnus Yat\u0131r\u0131m, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (TCMB) Temmuz 2026 d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":117755,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-117754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-ekonomi","category-manset"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117754"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117754\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/117755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}