A1 Capital\u2019in analizinde, Hakan Aran\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcredir ekonomik aktivitenin en sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6stergelerinden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi (PMI) verilerinin ortaya koydu\u011fu tabloyu destekledi\u011fi belirtildi. Aran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6zellikle KOB\u0130\u2019lerin ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn finansmana eri\u015fimde ciddi s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fi, bir\u00e7ok firman\u0131n sipari\u015f almaya devam etmesine ra\u011fmen i\u015fletme sermayesine ula\u015fmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na sorun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden Aran\u2019\u0131n, kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine getirilen s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar ve makroihtiyati tedbirlerin \u00fcretim, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve istihdam \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Analizde, Aran\u2019\u0131n mevcut s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u00fcrmesi halinde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemin \u015firketler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha zorlu ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki de\u011ferlendirmelerine de yer verildi. Firmalar\u0131n bug\u00fcne kadar ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemlerden kalan nakit tamponlar\u0131n\u0131 kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, y\u00fcksek finansman maliyetleri ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kredi imkanlar\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi halinde \u00f6zellikle sanayi ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131 \u015firketlerde k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artabilece\u011fi ifade edildi. Bu nedenle s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in \u00fcretim yapan ve ihracat ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren firmalara y\u00f6nelik kredi kanallar\u0131n\u0131n daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 i\u015flemesi gerekti\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n Hakan Aran\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 erken faiz indirimi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 olarak de\u011fil, kredi politikalar\u0131nda daha se\u00e7ici bir normalle\u015fme \u00f6nerisi \u015feklinde de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini belirtti. Son d\u00f6nemde bankalar\u0131n y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131 sayesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc faiz marjlar\u0131 elde etti\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekilen analizde, kredi hacmindeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin uzun vadeli gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin soru i\u015faretleri olu\u015fturdu\u011fu, bu nedenle kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yeniden sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir zemine oturmas\u0131n\u0131n hem bankalar hem de reel sekt\u00f6r a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Borsa \u0130stanbul a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n banka, sanayi ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131 \u015firket hisseleri i\u00e7in olumlu sinyal niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan\u2019\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmalarla Hakan Aran\u2019\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmeleri birlikte ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Karahan\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u00f6nce enflasyonu kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme\u201d, Aran\u2019\u0131n ise \u201cenflasyonla m\u00fccadele s\u00fcrerken \u00fcretimi destekleyecek kontroll\u00fc normalle\u015fme ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n geciktirilmemesi\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 benimsedi\u011fi ifade edildi. Piyasalarda da politika faizinde h\u0131zl\u0131 indirimlerden ziyade yat\u0131r\u0131m ve ihracat kredilerinin desteklenmesi, makroihtiyati tedbirlerde kademeli sadele\u015fme ve kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n kontroll\u00fc \u015fekilde esnetilmesinin daha olas\u0131 senaryo olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Resmi Gazete\u2019de yay\u0131mlanan d\u00fczenlemeler kapsam\u0131nda TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz cinsinden mevduat ve kat\u0131l\u0131m fonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 cinsinden ilave zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131n bankalar\u0131n yabanc\u0131 para y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerine y\u00f6nelik zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131. Yeni oranlar\u0131n 17 Temmuz 2026 tarihinde uygulanaca\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, d\u00fczenlemenin bankalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz likiditesini bir miktar azaltabilece\u011fi ve yabanc\u0131 para fonlama maliyetlerini art\u0131rabilece\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6z konusu iki d\u00fczenleme birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadede s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 negatif bir etkinin olu\u015fabilece\u011fi belirtilen analizde, yabanc\u0131 para mevduat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek bankalarda etkinin daha belirgin hissedilebilece\u011fi kaydedildi. Bununla birlikte d\u00fczenlemelerin sistem genelinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015foktan ziyade makroihtiyati s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ve sadele\u015fme ad\u0131m\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kur taraf\u0131nda ise TCMB\u2019nin piyasadan d\u00f6viz likiditesi \u00e7ekerek dolarizasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmay\u0131 ve T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 mevduat\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip hale getirmeyi ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilen analizde, kararlar\u0131n teorik olarak dolar\/TL \u00fczerinde dengeleyici etki olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi ancak rezervler, faiz patikas\u0131, enflasyon beklentileri ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 giri\u015flerinin kur \u00fczerinde daha belirleyici olmaya devam edece\u011fi ifade edildi. Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda ise d\u00fczenlemelerin k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fcksek seyrini koruyaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131 verdi\u011fi, uzun vadede ise enflasyon ve kur riskinin kontrol alt\u0131nda tutulaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcveni destekleyebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Resmi Gazete\u2019de yay\u0131mlanan yeni d\u00fczenlemeyle belirli kimyasallar, re\u00e7ineler, \u00f6zel kataliz\u00f6rler ve havac\u0131l\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 al\u00fcminyum levhalar\u0131n 31 Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019ya kadar s\u0131f\u0131r g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisiyle ithal edilebilmesine imkan tan\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. D\u00fczenlemenin boya, tekstil kimyasallar\u0131, ila\u00e7 hammaddesi, kompozit malzeme, havac\u0131l\u0131k, otomotiv ve petrokimya gibi sekt\u00f6rlerde \u00fcretim maliyetlerini destekleyebilece\u011fi belirtilirken, \u00f6zellikle NADCAP ve AS9100 sertifikal\u0131 7040 serisi al\u00fcminyum ala\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n havac\u0131l\u0131k ve savunma sanayi tedarik zinciri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan stratejik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Bununla birlikte s\u00f6z konusu uygulaman\u0131n tarife kontenjan\u0131 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle hisse fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kataliz\u00f6r olu\u015fturmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedi\u011fi, ancak ithal ara girdiye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 sanayi \u015firketlerinin k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilecek mikro \u00f6l\u00e7ekte olumlu bir geli\u015fme oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel piyasalara ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesinde ise A1 Capital, ABD\u2019de beklentilerin \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanan JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131 verisinin, Fed\u2019in faiz indiriminden ziyade faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Bunun etkisiyle ABD tahvil faizleri ve dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu\u011fu, alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u00fczerinde sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ise ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin belirsizlikler nedeniyle destek buldu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Analizde ayr\u0131ca bug\u00fcn sona erecek Sintra Forumu\u2019nun piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nemde oldu\u011fu belirtilerek, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde ile Fed Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ad\u0131 ge\u00e7en Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n verece\u011fi mesajlar\u0131n yak\u0131ndan takip edilece\u011fi kaydedildi. \u015eahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n tahvil faizleri ve dolar endeksini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fi, bunun da alt\u0131n, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi, daha dengeli mesajlar verilmesi halinde ise tahvil faizlerinde geri \u00e7ekilme ve hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
<\/strong> \u0130stanbul, 1 Temmuz (Hibya)- A1 Capital\u2019in g\u00fcnl\u00fck analizine g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Hakan Aran\u2019\u0131n krediye eri\u015fim ve reel sekt\u00f6re ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmeleri ile T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) makroihtiyati d\u00fczenlemelerde att\u0131\u011f\u0131 son ad\u0131mlar piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda yer ald\u0131. Kurum, kredi politikalar\u0131nda se\u00e7ici bir normalle\u015fmenin hem bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hem de reel sekt\u00f6r a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":107557,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow07ekDA:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-107556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-ekonomi","category-manset"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107556"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107556\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107557"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekonomigundemi.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEKONOM\u0130 GAZETES\u0130 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"